Illinois Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Illini in 2025

Our annual Crystal Ball series begins today with the first team alphabetically in the Big Ten: Illinois.

The Fighting Illini went 9-3 during the 2024 regular season before picking up a 10th win in the Citrus Bowl against South Carolina. Of those 3 losses, 2 came on the road at Oregon and at Penn State. You probably don’t need to be reminded that both of those teams made the College Football Playoff last year.

The other loss? At home by 8 points (25-17) against a Minnesota squad that finished the regular season 7-5.

Ouch.

That loss may have cost Bret Bielema and company their own spot in the Playoff.

This year, though, the Illini should be knocking on the door of the 12-team CFP field once again. Of the B1G squads that made the Playoff last year (Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Penn State), Illinois only has to play Ohio State and Indiana.

The schedule is very manageable for the Illini this year. But can they replace their key pieces around QB Luke Altmyer to take advantage? That’s the question.

We’ll dive into the game-by-game predictions for Illinois below, but first, here’s a look at the full schedule for the Fighting Illini in 2025:

---

Biggest Question Mark: The Receiving Corps

There are a handful of areas of concern for the Illini, but I’m going to focus on the receiving corps. Losing Pat Bryant (980 yards, 10 touchdowns) and Zakhari Franklin (652 yards, 4 touchdowns) is going to hurt. Hank Beatty and Collin Dixon will have to step into bigger roles. They combined for fewer yards than Franklin last year and had 1 touchdown each.

Keep your eye on West Virginia transfer Hudson Clement. He had 741 receiving yards and 5 scores for the Mountaineers last year. If he can become Altmyer’s go-to guy, the Illinois offense will do enough to have a strong season.

Illinois Win Total Over/Under

Odds via BetMGM:

• Over 7.5 wins: -185
• Under 7.5 wins: +150

Bettors love the Illini to reach 8 wins. How do I feel about Bret Bielema and company? Let’s dive into it:

Game-by-Game Predictions

Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for Illinois:

Week 1: vs. Western Illinois (W)

We don’t need to spend a lot of time discussing this one. A 10-win B1G squad from a year ago hosts an in-state FCS school. This should be a blowout win to get the 2025 campaign started.

Week 2: at Duke (W)

This is where things start to get interesting. Darian Mensah is a talented QB who transferred to Duke. The Blue Devils have plenty of continuity at key spots, but Illinois has even more. I expect the Illini to survive a scare in this one. It’s always better to win a close game than lose a close game.

Week 3: vs. Western Michigan (W)

Another easy win for the Illini. The crowd in Champaign will be out in force for this one, enjoying a warm Saturday afternoon. Altmyer will have a big first half throwing the ball and then the running game and defense will take the Illini home.

Week 4: at Indiana (W)

I like that this road trip to Bloomington kicks off the Big Ten schedule for both teams. That benefits the Illini. Fernando Mendoza will still be settling in as the QB1 for the Hoosiers. Indiana and coach Curt Cignetti have a ton of production to replace. Elijah Sarratt and Roman Hemby are great players at the skill positions, but this revamped Indiana squad will struggle in the early part of the season (spoiler alert for tomorrow’s column).

Week 5: vs. USC (W)

This is the homecoming game for the Illini this year. And again, this is a situation where Illinois catches a schedule break. Week 5 is a good time to catch a squad with a first-year starting QB. The Illini defense should be able to keep QB Jayden Maiava just uncomfortable enough to squeak out a 1-possession victory.

Week 6: at Purdue (W)

The Illini clinch bowl eligibility as soon as possible with a road win against a rebuilding Purdue squad. Barry Odom will build the Boilermakers into a competitive B1G squad at some point, but it isn’t going to happen in Year 1. The Illini go on the road and score a decisive victory.

Week 7: vs. Ohio State (L)

I picked Illinois to win early games against Indiana and USC as first-year full-time starters at their schools settle into the grind of the season. This is getting to be too late in the year for that to be a reason for the Illini to win. Julian Sayin (assuming he wins the job) will avoid making the dagger mistake and the Buckeyes, the reigning national champions, will escape Champaign with a 1-score win.

Week 8: Bye

The Illini get their first much-needed bye at a great time. Beaten up after 7 grueling weeks, they’ll get healthy and prepare for a second-half push.

Week 9: at Washington (W)

I’m nervous about this game for the Illini. If it had happened in Week 8, I might have picked Illinois to lose. The old “don’t let a team beat you twice” thing following the Ohio State loss. But with a week off to regroup and refocus, I think Bret Bielema will have his team ready for this long road trip.

Week 10: vs. Rutgers (W)

I’m not overlooking Rutgers. This would be a potential trap game if it was in New Jersey. But it isn’t. The Illini will be fully in a groove at this point and I think they win this home game comfortably.

Week 11: Bye

The second bye week gives the Illini time off to plan for a late-season Playoff push.

Week 12: vs. Maryland (W)

A bye week to prepare for a home game against a not-great Maryland team? Yeah, I think the Illini will roll in this one. The problem? They’re going to feel a bit too good about themselves heading into Week 13…

Week 13: at Wisconsin (L)

Here’s where I think the Illini trip up for a second time. Camp Randall is never an easy place to play. Look for this late-November game to feature some bad weather and some even worse offense. In a defensive showdown, the Illini find themselves on the wrong end of a 1-score game.

Week 14: vs. Northwestern (W)

The pressure will be on the Illini in this rivalry game. A Playoff spot will be all but assured with a victory. A loss would be devastating. Look for Illinois to come out nervous, struggling in the first half. In the second half, though, Altmyer and company will take over. The Illini win this game and the Playoff party will begin in Champaign.

2025 Projection: 10-2 overall (7-2 in Big Ten play), 4th in the Big Ten

The Illini miss out on the Big Ten Championship Game, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. With their 10-2 record, they sit pretty and wait for the College Football Playoff selection show.

12-team Playoff berth: Yes

I agree with my colleague Connor O’Gara. I have the Illini in my 12-team CFP field this year. Bielema led the Illini to Playoff contention last year. This season, with a favorable schedule, they get the job done. How much noise can they make in the Playoff? Honestly, I wouldn’t expect them to do much. But just getting there will be a huge accomplishment for the Illini.