The 5 things that will determine whether Ohio State repeats or not

Ryan Day did the impossible last season. He completed the transformation from social media whipping boy to celebrated scarlet and gray legend in less than 2 months.

Ohio State’s head coach went from embattled to battle tested. He went from being the guy who couldn’t even beat Michigan at home to the guy who directed arguably the greatest national championship run in college football history. 

It almost didn’t feel real for Ohio State. But it was so very real, and it played out on the biggest stage imaginable. Ryan Day‘s Buckeyes walked off the field at Ohio Stadium after the stunning loss to Michigan with the worst feeling a team with everything on the line could have. Then they got a second chance at glory because the streamlined 4-team College Football Playoff had become a 12-team derby in 2024.

Day’s beleaguered bunch snuck in as the No. 8 seed, got their heads together and their collective soul in place, and made every poor foe pay the rest of the way. Tennessee, Oregon, Texas and Notre Dame were the list of victims, in that order, and they allowed a combined 145 points to one of the most complete offenses in recent college football history.

So, Day didn’t beat Michigan in November (again), but he won a national title in January. Did he also win some breathing room from that relentless Ohio State fan base? Well, that remains to be seen, because in a few short weeks Arch Manning and preseason No. 1 Texas will rumble into the Horseshoe for one of the most anticipated season openers college football has ever seen and that gallant title run will officially be yesterday’s news.

That’s just how it works in Columbus, and Day will be faced with a whole new slew of challenges. Can he meet them and do the impossible again by leading Ohio State to back-to-back crowns, like Georgia and Alabama have done in this era? So much will have to go right, like with any championship run in any sport, but we’re going to narrow it down to 5 things that will determine whether Day and Co. are celebrating again in January.

This list is in no order of importance, because all 5 factors are equally important for Ohio State in 2025:

Jeremiah Smith continuing his superstar evolution

Yes, Smith had one of the best freshman seasons in Ohio State football history, or even college football history. Yes, he became one of the faces of the sport during one scintillating fall (and winter), catching 76 passes for 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns. And, yes, he even put the nail in Notre Dame’s coffin in the National Championship Game, sealing the title for the Buckeyes with that gigantic 56-yard catch on 3rd-and-11.

The Fighting Irish had clawed back from a 31-7 hole in the third quarter and were on the verge of getting a shot to tie the game. But Smith said no. True freshman players aren’t supposed to lead their teams to national titles, or seal them late in the fourth quarter with everything in the balance. Smith, who had turned 19 years old a little less than 2 months earlier, wasn’t your normal true freshman though, and he showed that to the very end of a freshman season for the ages.

And now? Now, it’s time for Smith to prove to himself, his teammates, Ryan Day, Columbus and the college football world that he, somehow, can duplicate that freshman season or even better it. This will be extremely difficult. Defensive coordinators will be spending even more time during the week devising plans to at least neutralize Smith, and defensive backs will be motivated to slow down Smith because they know they’re on center stage.

Smith will face all this while trying to build the same kind of rhythm with a new quarterback that he had with Will Howard during last season’s magical run. Howard came to Columbus with a wealth of experience from his years starting at Kansas State, but recently named Ohio State QB1 Julian Sayin won’t have that luxury. It doesn’t mean Sayin or backup Lincoln Kienholz can’t ultimately grow into a force in 2025, it just might take a little longer to jell with Smith because of their lack of experience.

There was a perfect scenario surrounding Smith last fall — that experienced quarterback, weapons everywhere else and one of the most-proven offensive minds of this generation in offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. There was all of that, plus the reality that defenses and defensive coordinators hadn’t seen Smith yet up close. They had only heard about his enormous potential.

This fall, Smith will have a new quarterback to get used to and one without any starting experience, no matter who it is. He’ll have a new OC in Brian Hartline, who has almost a decade of experience as an assistant at Ohio State but will be calling plays for the first time in his career. 

And, maybe most importantly, Smith will have to deal with the reality that he isn’t so new anymore. There is tape on him, and plenty of it. There is a book on Smith now, and he’ll have to adjust because defensive coordinators in the Big Ten will have spent an entire offseason adjusting to him. All of these challenges will be there as all eyes are on Smith to see if he can continue evolving as a star in 2025.

It’ll be anything but easy for him. But if Smith is the star we all thought he was after last season, then nobody should bet against him this fall. And if Ohio State is going to repeat in 2025, then Smith’s continued evolution as a dominant force will be paramount.

Matt Patricia ending any Jim Knowles regrets

While Knowles’ defense was busy helping Ohio State win the national title in January, there was animosity brewing amid Knowles’ contract situation in Columbus. Less than a week after the confetti had fallen on Knowles and the Buckeyes in Atlanta, he was heading to hated rival Penn State to run its defense.

Ohio State offered Knowles more than $2.5 million per season, which would’ve made him the highest-paid defensive coordinator in the country. But Penn State did a little bit better, with a 3-year offer for $3.1 million per season, which was believed to make Knowles the first college coordinator to make at least $3 million in base salary. 

Knowles later said Ohio State asked him not to attend the team’s national title celebration while he considered his options, so it was getting bad quickly in Columbus. Exactly a month after Ohio State won it all, the Buckeyes hired longtime NFL defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to replace Knowles. Patricia arrives with a lofty championship pedigree to match Ohio State’s, as he won 3 Super Bowl titles as an assistant with the New England Patriots, including 2 as the team’s defensive coordinator in 2014 and 2016.

Clearly, the 50-year-old Patricia has accomplished a ton at a pretty young age for a coach. He was a key part of the Patriots’ dynasty, joining the franchise as an offensive line assistant in 2004 and serving in multiple defensive roles, including DC, through the 2022 season. His long run in New England was only interrupted when he got a taste of being a head coach in the NFL with the Detroit Lions in 2018, but he went just 13-29-1 and was fired late in the 2020 season.

After Patricia left the Patriots the second time, he spent the 2023 season as a senior defensive assistant with the Philadelphia Eagles. In 2024, he took a short-lived breather, and in 2025, he’s been thrust into a high-pressure situation at Ohio State, trying to follow a national championship season and trying to do it in his first college coaching job since the very early days of his career.

That’s really what sticks out here. All of that success in the NFL, reaching the highest levels multiple times, is great and all. But this is something altogether different for Patricia, who hasn’t coached in college since he was a graduate assistant at Syracuse from 2001 to 2003. Before that, he spent 2 seasons as the defensive line coach at Amherst College and 1 season in 1996 as a grad assistant at RPI, where he played offensive line from 1992-95.

Patricia has a tremendous football portfolio. But he’s barely scratched the surface of coaching at the collegiate level. That brief experience both as a player and an assistant was a very long time ago and wasn’t anywhere close to the level that he’ll be thrust into starting in a few weeks when he’ll be trying to defend Arch Manning and preseason No. 1 Texas on national TV at Ohio Stadium.

Perhaps this is why Ohio State recently hired Josh Boyer, who coached under Patricia in New England, to its defensive staff. Boyer’s presence will give Patricia some familiarity as he tries to ease his way into a very difficult spot. The expectations will be enormous for Patricia, and though he’s used to coaching in big games at the NFL level, he’s a virtual rookie when it comes to the collegiate coaching world. With Knowles now over at Penn State, the comparisons will come quickly and harshly, and Patricia needs to up to the task if Ohio State is going to outlast the Nittany Lions and everybody else in 2025.

No Will Howard, but no regression at QB either

Howard was the perfect quarterback to come along at the perfect time for the Buckeyes. He had plenty of experience during his 4 seasons at Kansas State, and he transferred to Ohio State with 1 goal in mind — winning a national title. Howard went out and accomplished just that in 2024, with the help of 1 of the most stacked offensive rosters that college football has ever seen.

Now, Howard is a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Ohio State program he left behind is searching for a new starting quarterback. That search is over as of this week, with Julian Sayin getting the QB1 nod over Lincoln Kienholz. When Sayin starts on Aug. 30 against Texas, he will have enormous shoes to fill immediately, with Arch Manning standing on the other sideline.

National titles are won in multiple ways, so we’re not saying that Sayin or Kienholz needs to duplicate what Howard did in 2024. Howard threw for 4,010 yards with 35 touchdown passes and just 10 interceptions, and he led an offense that put up huge numbers in the College Football Playoff. Expecting Sayin and Kienholz to do the same without any previous starting experience is a lot to ask, but as long as there’s no serious regression at the position in 2025 then Ohio State could and should be Playoff-bound again.

With Jeremiah Smith back to light up defenses and scoreboards again, whoever the starter is will have the advantage of having arguably the best player in the country to throw to. That’s certainly not a bad place to start, and although it lost its 2 starting running backs from last season to the NFL in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, the Buckeyes backfield will be talented again this fall.

There will be a new offensive coordinator in Columbus and a new play-caller as Brian Hartline replaces Chip Kelly. That’ll be another challenge for Howard’s replacement, although in this case a new starting QB together with a new OC might actually help Sayin because it signals a clean slate for both of them.

A demanding fan base might not fully agree, but Howard’s replacement doesn’t have to be Howard for Ohio State to repeat. Sayin or Kienholz, whoever it ends up being in the long run, just has to be solid, make sure they get the ball plenty to the most electrifying player in college football in Smith and keep those turnovers down. 

Howard came to Columbus with the motivation of wanting to complete his collegiate career with a title. Sayin will be under center in a few weeks against Texas with a whole different kind of motivation — to silence the doubters and prove that a first-year starter can win a title, too. If there isn’t any noticeable regression in the quarterback play, then Ohio State should at least be in a position to repeat.

Getting that fluid offensive line rotation right

Show me a defending champion in any level of football that doesn’t have its offensive line down pat, and I’ll show you a defending champion that fails to repeat. The offensive line always has been and always will be the foundation of any football team, especially one that has its eyes on going the distance again.

Ryan Day admitted earlier this week to reporters that there’s still some shifting going on with his offensive line, with the opener against Texas rapidly approaching. Part of the reason for this is a new emphasis during fall camp with offensive linemen learning both primary and secondary positions.

“It’s important as we get closer to this first game for guys to really dig in and get the majority of the snaps at where they’re going to play,” Day told reporters earlier this week.

So, while the O-line shuffling isn’t necessarily something to sound the alarm on in Columbus, it is worth noting that we’re only 2 weeks from the opener and everything up front isn’t set in stone. The offensive line carries with it yet another “first” for Ohio State, and that’s first-year O-line coach Tyler Bowen, who comes to Columbus after spending 3 years at Virginia Tech.

Perhaps the line is still in shuffle mode this late because there is a new coach at the helm of the unit. Bowen has downplayed the significance of the unit still being in flux, but he hasn’t denied that the staff is emphasizing players learning multiple positions.

Day said that by the end of this week, there would be more information to go on and the Buckeyes would “go from there.” The clock is ticking, of course, before the real game clock starts ticking against those Longhorns on Aug. 30. 

Getting everything set along the offensive line for the opener and for another long run to January is what’s needed, because nothing gets accomplished — and certainly not a repeat — if the offensive line isn’t once again a strength in Columbus.

Finally beating Michigan would be encouraged

Ohio State’s most intense fans will like this last one. Because, really, how many times is Ohio State going to lose to Michigan in late November and win it all in late January? Last season was the clear exception, but it’s no way to make a living, especially for Day, who fell to 1-4 against The Team Up North after last year’s shocking home loss.

There are those who would say losing at home to an unranked Michigan team was just what Ohio State (and Day) needed to spur that incredible championship run in December and January. 

And guess what? Those people would be exactly right. 

The 13-10 thud that the Buckeyes ended the regular season with lit a fire under everybody in the program, from Day on down, and Ohio State never looked back thanks to a second chance provided by the expanded 12-team Playoff.

But the odds of losing to Michigan yet again in Ann Arbor on Nov. 29 — which just happens to be Jeremiah Smith’s 20th birthday, no less — then making another complete U-turn again and winning a second national title in a row are, well, extremely slim. Lightning of that ridiculous sort only strikes once.

While Day silenced a ton of critics with what happened after the Michigan loss, the Michigan loss still happened, and it was Day’s 4th straight loss to the Wolverines after he beat them in his first crack in 2019. That 1 victory over Michigan was a very long time ago, and Ohio State football fans have a very long memory. 

If the Buckeyes are going to repeat in 2025, logic would say they have to finally beat Michigan. Day finally has to beat Michigan. That 2024 championship formula was very real but, in reality, very fleeting. 

Trying to pull it off again would likely end with Ohio State falling short of that repeat glory.