Ad Disclosure
No. 6 Purdue doesn’t need to be reminded what happened the last time it faced Auburn.
The Tigers pounded the Boilermakers by 18 almost exactly a year ago, a blowout that former Auburn coach Bruce Pearl was only too happy to remind Boilers fans of this week ahead of Saturday night’s 6:30 pm rematch in the Indy Classic (Peacock).
The rosters have changed — as well as Auburn’s head coach. Bruce Pearl resigned before the season and his son, Steven, was promoted to head coach.
Purdue is 10-1 and led by Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year Braden Smith, with center Oscar Cluff (12.4 points per game) dominating inside with a nation-leading 75.3% field goal percentage.
No. 21 Auburn (8-3) counters with its signature fast-paced, aggressive style. The Tigers are led by explosive forward Keyshawn Hall, who’s averaging 20.9 points per game.
Auburn vs Purdue Odds
The Boilermakers enter this neutral-site contest as substantial favorites, with DraftKings Sportsbook listing Purdue as an 8.5-point favorite. The total sits at 154.5, suggesting oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn Tigers | +8.5 (-112) | +360 | Over 154.5 (-108) |
| Purdue Boilermakers | -8.5 (-108) | -470 | Under 154.5 (-112) |
Odds courtesy of consensus data, DraftKings Sportsbook.
Based on these moneyline odds, Purdue carries an implied win probability of 82.5% after removing the vig, while Auburn sits at 17.5%. For betting newcomers, a successful $10 wager on the favored Boilermakers nets just $2.13 in profit, while backing the underdog Tigers returns a hefty $36.00 on that same $10 investment.
Statistical Breakdown: Who has the edge?
The numbers reveal 2 explosive offenses with vastly different defensive philosophies. Purdue’s RPI ranking is 14, bolstered by an impressive 3-1 record against top-50 opponents. Auburn, ranked 33rd in RPI, has faced slightly stronger competition but struggled more against elite teams at 1-3 vs. the top 50.
| Stat | Auburn Tigers | Purdue Boilermakers |
|---|---|---|
| RPI Rank | 33 | 14 |
| Strength of Schedule | 0.587 | 0.577 |
| Record vs. RPI 1-50 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Points Per Game | 86.5 | 84.6 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 76.8 | 67.1 |
| Rebounds Per Game | 41.4 | 40.8 |
| Assists Per Game | 15.5 | 21.0 |
| Field Goal % | 47.6% | 50.5% |
| Three-Point % | 34.3% | 39.5% |
| Free Throw % | 73.5% | 74.0% |
The breakdown reveals Purdue’s efficiency edge across the board. The Boilermakers shoot it better, thanks in part to Smith’s playmaking. He ranks 2nd nationally with 9.2 assists per game.
Auburn brings a different energy through Hall’s explosive 20.9 points per game, ranking 20th nationally. The Tigers excel at drawing fouls and creating chaos in transition, but their defensive numbers are concerning.
Auburn vs Purdue Pick & Prediction
While this matchup promises points, the defensive disparity will determine the outcome. Purdue’s ability to pair elite offense with suffocating defense gives them the edge over Auburn.
Best Bet: Purdue Boilermakers -8.5 (-108 DraftKings)
The line started at 9.5 before shifting. Still, the talent and schematic gap creates the foundation for this play. Purdue allows just 67.1 points per game while Auburn surrenders 76.8. The Boilermakers are 3-1 vs. RPI top-50 teams, while Auburn has stumbled in similar spots.
Purdue’s offensive efficiency should neutralize Auburn’s transition attack. Smith’s court vision creates easy baskets for role players, while Cluff’s dominance inside provides a consistent scoring threat that Auburn’s defense hasn’t shown it can contain. The Tigers need to force turnovers and get to the free-throw line to stay competitive, but Purdue’s ball security and disciplined approach should limit those opportunities.
Look for the Boilers to prove they aren’t the same team that Auburn blasted last season.