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Illinois vs Missouri preview and best bet
By Chris Wright
Published:
Illinois renews its basketball rivalry with Missouri tonight in St. Louis. Tipoff is at 8 pm (ET) on FS1.
Illinois is 8-3 — but those 3 losses were against AP Top 25 teams. The Illini also have wins over then-No. 11 Texas Tech and then-No. 13 Tennessee.
Missouri is 10-2, but has played a significantly easier slate. The Tigers lost to then-No. 21 Kansas, 80-60, in their only game against a ranked opponent.
The backcourts will determine the outcome — and margin tonight in St. Louis.
Guards Kylan Boswell (16.1 PPG) and sharpshooter Andrej Stojakovic (15.5 PPG) lead Illinois, which scored at least 75 points in 4 of its 5 games against ranked opponents. Mizzou counters with Mark Mitchell (18.1 PPG) and Jacob Crews, the nation’s 4th-best 3-point shooter.
This preview breaks down the key matchup factors, analyzes the betting market, and provides our best bet for what should be a tightly contested affair between programs with legitimate postseason aspirations.
Illinois vs Missouri Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois Fighting Illini | -9.5 (-119) | Over 154.5 (-112) | -559 |
| Missouri Tigers | +9.5 (-102) | Under 154.5 (-108) | +410 |
Odds provided by consensus at 2:10 pm, ET, Dec. 22.
The sportsbooks are showing serious respect for Illinois despite this being played in Missouri’s backyard. The Fighting Illini’s -559 moneyline price reflects overwhelming confidence from oddsmakers, while Missouri sits as a substantial +410 underdog. After removing the standard bookmaker commission, these odds imply an 81.2% chance of Illinois victory compared to just 18.8% for Missouri to pull the upset.
For betting newcomers, a successful $5 wager on favored Illinois would profit just $0.89, while that same $5 bet on underdog Missouri would return a hefty $20.50 profit. The total is set high at 154.5 points, suggesting expectations for an up-tempo, offensive showcase.
Statistical Breakdown: Illinois vs Mizzou
Who has the edge? The numbers favor Illinois.
| Statistic | Illinois | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 8-3 | 10-2 |
| Points Per Game | 87.8 | 86.8 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 71.5 | 69.8 |
| Point Differential | +16.3 | +16.9 |
| RPI | 0.6184 (27th) | 0.5117 (153rd) |
| Strength of Schedule | 0.6117 | 0.4124 |
| Record vs. RPI 1-50 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Record vs. RPI 51-100 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Record vs. RPI 151+ | 4-0 | 10-0 |
| Neutral Site Record | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Missouri’s 10-2 record looks impressive until you examine the competition level. The Tigers are10-0 against teams ranked outside the RPI top 150, essentially feasting on inferior opposition. However, they’re winless (0-2) against top-100 opponents and lost their only game against a top-50 team.
Illinois’ RPI ranking of 27th reflects aggressive scheduling, having already played 5 games against AP ranked teams.
Why Illinois Covers the 9.5-Point Spread
This line represents a classic “strength of schedule” situational bet, and the market has it right by favoring Illinois heavily. Missouri’s perfect record against weak competition has created a false narrative around their capabilities, while Illinois has been genuinely tested in high-pressure environments.
The Tigers’ offensive attack, led by Mitchell’s 18.2 points per game and Crews’ elite three-point shooting, hasn’t faced a defense with Illinois’ combination of size, athleticism, and experience. Missouri’s defensive numbers (69.8 ppg allowed) are a mirage created by playing inferior offensive teams. When Illinois’ backcourt duo of Boswell and Stojakovic get into rhythm against Missouri’s untested defense, the point differential should expand quickly.
Historical trends support backing the battle-tested favorite in neutral-site rivalry games. Teams with strength of schedule advantages like Illinois (0.6117 vs 0.4124) typically outperform spreads against opponents who’ve padded records against weaker competition. Missouri’s 0-2 record against quality opponents isn’t just concerning – it’s predictive.
The total points line at 154.5 also suggests a pace that favors Illinois. This isn’t just about Illinois winning; it’s about the Fighting Illini making a statement in what amounts to their final tune-up before Big Ten play intensifies.
The consensus spread is 9.5, but shop around. DraftKings has Illinois at -8.5.
Best Bet: Illinois Fighting Illini -8.5 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook.