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Lincoln Riley has yet to lead USC to the Playoff, but he has a chance to lead the Trojans to a bowl win for the third consecutive season.
USC (9-3) faces TCU (8-4) in the Alamo Bowl. Kickoff is 9 pm, ET, Tuesday (ESPN). In addition to trying to extend the bowl streak, Riley also is trying to get to 10 wins for the second time in Troy.
Expect fireworks — even as both teams deal with key opt-outs. Most notably, TCU QB Josh Hoover announced earlier that he is entering the transfer portal and is not playing in the Alamo Bowl. Contrast that with USC QB Jayden Maiava (3,431 yards, 23 TDs, 8 INTs), who is playing.
We’ll break down the matchup and offer our best bets.
USC Trojans vs TCU Horned Frogs Odds
The consensus betting markets have established USC as a solid favorite in the Alamo Bowl, with line movement favoring the Trojans since opening.
| Betting Market | USC | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | -6.5 (-116) | +6.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -242 | +198 |
| Total | Over 55.5 (-108) | Under 55.5 (-112) |
(These are consensus odds on Monday, December 29, 2025.)
For bettors, the moneyline presents a clear risk-reward scenario. A successful $10 wager on USC would yield a $4.13 profit. Meanwhile, a victorious $10 bet on TCU would result in a $19.80 profit.
USC vs TCU Alamo Bowl prediction and best bets
USC holds decisive advantages in the metrics that matter most in bowl games. Notably, USC’s ability to protect the football gives the Trojans a significant edge against a TCU team that has struggled with turnovers.
We like USC to cover as well as the score to exceed the over.
Our Pick: USC -6.5 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook
The Trojans possess superior offensive efficiency where it matters most. USC converts 52.1% of 3rd downs and scores on 91.2% of red zone trips, compared to TCU’s respectable but inferior marks of 46.8% and 79.6%, respectively. This execution gap becomes magnified in bowl games where possessions are precious. USC’s balanced attack provides multiple ways to control the game and cover the spread.
Our Pick: Over 55.5 (-105)
If the total seems low, there’s a good reason. USC is without its NFL-bound receivers, Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane. The market’s movement down from 58.5 has created excellent value for over bettors who want the Over. For Trojans fans, the good news is Maiava is playing, and it’s reasonable to expect him to throw with similar efficiency. Expect both air raid concepts and ground-and-pound elements to produce enough points to hit the Over.
SPORTSBOOK
Team statistics: Who has the edge?
At full strength, USC’s offense has operated as a model of consistency and explosiveness, outpacing TCU across nearly every major category. The key is how well USC’s next-men-up play.
| Offensive Stat | USC Trojans | TCU Horned Frogs |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 35.8 | 30.8 |
| Total Yards Per Game | 471.6 | 425.3 |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 297.3 | 292.8 |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 174.3 | 132.6 |
| Third Down Conversion % | 52.1% | 46.8% |
| Red Zone Scoring % | 91.2% | 79.6% |
Defensive and turnover battle
While comprehensive defensive statistics aren’t fully available, the metrics surrounding takeaways and negative plays reveal consistent themes favoring USC’s disciplined approach throughout the season.
| Key Defensive & Team Metrics | USC | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover Differential | +2 | -2 |
| Total Sacks | 28.0 | 24.0 |
| Total Interceptions | 11 | 12 |
| Total Turnovers Committed | 14 | 19 |
The turnover differential represents the most critical statistic entering this bowl game. USC’s +2 margin highlights a team that protects the football while generating opportunistic takeaways, contrasted with TCU’s -2 differential that indicates a concerning tendency to give possessions away. The Trojans also maintain a slight edge in quarterback pressure, recording 4 more sacks than the Horned Frogs. In a bowl matchup between explosive offenses, winning the turnover battle becomes paramount, and USC has proven far more reliable in this crucial area.
For USC fans looking to maximize their betting value, Riley’s ability to generate offense no matter the personnel provides confidence that the Trojans’ superior efficiency metrics will translate to bowl game success against TCU.