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Iowa vs. Vanderbilt: ReliaQuest Bowl preview and prediction
By Chris Wright
Published:
Kirk Ferentz has Iowa in a bowl game for the 22nd time. That ranks second only to Dabo Swinney (23) among active coaches.
This time, the Hawkeyes head to the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa (12 pm, ET, Wednesday, ESPN) to take on the SEC’s version of Indiana: Vanderbilt, which is led by fiery Heisman runner-up Diego Pavia.
The Commodores enter as the higher-ranked and higher-scoring team. However, Iowa’s methodical approach has proven effective, particularly in the red zone where it boasts an elite scoring efficiency.
Can Ferentz’s pick up his 11th bowl win Wednesday in Tampa?
Let’s dive in to the ReliaQuest Bowl matchup and offer our best betting advice.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs Vanderbilt Commodores Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa Hawkeyes | +5.5 (-112) | +180 | O46.5 (-112) |
| Vanderbilt Commodores | -5.5 (-108) | -218 | U46.5 (-108) |
The betting market has established Vanderbilt as a notable favorite. The Commodores opened as a 4-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, but the line has grown to 5.5.
For Iowa backers, a successful $10 wager on the Hawkeyes’ moneyline would result in an $18 profit.
SPORTSBOOK
ReliaQuest Bowl predictions & best bet for Iowa Fans
Vanderbilt’s offensive numbers are impressive, but there are several angles that favor Iowa’s chances of covering the spread and potentially winning outright. (Spoiler: We don’t think that’s going to happen. More, below.)
The Hawkeyes’ defensive schemes have consistently frustrated high-powered offenses this season, and their turnover differential matches Vanderbilt’s mark.
The key situational trend working in Iowa’s favor: Bowl underdogs of 3+ points are 23-17 ATS (57.5%) over the past 5 seasons, particularly when facing teams making their first bowl appearance in consecutive years. Pavia and Vanderbilt’s offense have thrived in familiar SEC environments, but neutral-site bowl games often favor more experienced programs.
Iowa’s ground-and-pound attack, which has produced significant rushing yards this season, should control the clock and limit Vanderbilt’s possessions. The Hawkeyes’ elite 93.5% red zone efficiency suggests they’ll capitalize when they reach scoring position, while their defensive front seven should pressure Vanderbilt’s pocket presence.
So, there are reasons for optimism if you’re looking to wager on Iowa.
However, the reason we’re not is Pavia. Motivation is always a huge, underlying factor in bowl games, and no player in America is more motivated right now than Pavia. Why? Several reasons. First, he’s wired that way, but more recently, his viral reaction to not winning the Heisman backed him into a corner.
Pavia already is the greatest quarterback in Vanderbilt history, but with a win Wednesday, he’ll have a case as the greatest player in program history.
We think he comes out swinging, sending one more reminder to Heisman voters that they picked the wrong guy.
Best Bet: Vanderbilt -5.5 (-108) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Injury report & opt-outs
Iowa is all-in, with its key seniors committing to playing in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Vanderbilt will be without its top playmaker — and Pavia’s favorite target — Eli Stowers. His absence removes a reliable target in the red zone and on 3rd downs, areas where Iowa’s defense can focus on limiting Vanderbilt’s remaining skill players. Ultimately, we think Pavia’s playmaking ability with his legs overcomes Stowers’ absence, but that’s one reason the point total has dropped to 46.5.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.