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Nebraska vs. Utah: Prediction and preview for Las Vegas Bowl
By Chris Wright
Published:
Nebraska has a chance to win bowl games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since … Bo Pelini roamed the sidelines?
It’s true.
The short-handed Cornhuskers face Utah later today in the Las Vegas Bowl. Kickoff is 3:30 pm, ET, Dec. 31 (ESPN). Nebraska beat Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl last season, but today’s challenge is much steeper.
The Utes are heavy favorites (-14 at most sportsbooks) but also are without 2 starting offensive linemen who are preparing for the NFL Draft. Oh, and their coach, Kyle Whittingham recently left to become Michigan’s head coach.
Seemingly, those factors play to Nebraska’s favor — but the Cornhuskers will have a young QB and new lead RB — and still must find a way to slow down Utah’s offense.
The Utes average 40.8 points per game, finding the end zone on a staggering 90.4% of red-zone possessions. Containing this explosive Utah attack will require Nebraska’s most complete defensive performance of the year.
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Utah Utes Odds
The betting markets have established Utah as a substantial favorite for this bowl game, reflecting their dominant statistical profile throughout the season. The Utes opened as 13.5-point favorites but have since moved to a full 2-touchdown spread, indicating strong early betting action in their favor.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | -14 (-112) | -610 | Over 50.5 (-115) |
| Nebraska | +14 (-108) | +446 | Under 50.5 (-105) |
(Consensus odds on December 31st.)
Utah’s commanding -610 moneyline reflects the market’s confidence in their ability to win outright, while Nebraska sits as a significant underdog at +446. The total is set at 50.5 points with slight juice favoring the over.
After removing the vig, the implied probabilities give Utah an 82.4% chance of victory, while Nebraska holds a 17.6% probability of pulling off the upset. For moneyline bettors, a successful $10 wager on Utah would return a modest $1.64 profit, while backing Nebraska’s upset bid would yield $44.60 on the same investment.
DraftKings also has Utah -14 (-112).
SPORTSBOOK
Nebraska vs Utah: Best bet
No matter the circumstances, 14 points is a lot of ground to make up, particularly when a team is missing its 2 best offensive linemen. That’s critical because the Utes average 269.8 rushing yards per game.
Nebraska also is dealing with opt-outs; RB Emmett Johnson and LB Dasan McCullough are preparing for the draft. And defensive anchor DeShon Alexander is out with an injury.
For those reasons and others, we’re staying away from the spread.
Instead, we’re focusing on the Over.
The game total of 50.5 points appears conservative given both teams’ offensive capabilities. Utah alone averages over 40 points, and their offensive trend line suggests continued improvement. Nebraska’s 29.1 points per game, while respectable, could increase against a Utah defense showing declining metrics late in the season. The combined scoring average of 69.9 points between these teams suggests significant value on the over in the controlled environment of Allegiant Stadium.
Best bet: Over 50.5 (-115) at BetMGM.
Statistical breakdown: Who has the edge?
Let’s see how Nebraska and Utah stack up. It’s worth noting, obviously, that most of Nebraska’s numbers were with Dylan Raiola at QB and Emmett Johnson rushing. Johnson has opted out, and TJ Lateef (722 yards, 4 TDs) will start again at QB against Utah.
| Offensive Metric | Nebraska | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 29.1 | 40.8 |
| Total Yards Per Game | 372.8 | 478.6 |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 228.2 | 208.8 |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 144.7 | 269.8 |
| Total Turnovers | 10 | 12 |
| Defensive Metric | Nebraska | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Sacks (Total) | 18.0 | 31.0 |
| Interceptions (Total) | 6 | 14 |
| Fumbles Recovered (Total) | 5 | 3 |
| Total Takeaways | 11 | 17 |
| Turnover Differential | +1 | +5 |
Bottom line: Nebraska enters as significant underdogs with minimal margin for error. The Cornhuskers’ success depends on near-perfect execution and maintaining their exceptional ball security that has produced only 10 turnovers all season.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.