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No. 2 Michigan hosts No. 24 USC on Friday night.
Vegas doesn’t expect a lot of drama. The undefeated Wolverines are favored by 22.5 points at DraftKings and other sportsbooks.
Michigan is 12-0 and drawing closer to the program’s best start — 17-0 in 2018-19. The Wolverines are 2-0 against ranked teams, but they were just any wins. Michigan blasted then-No. 21 Auburn 102-72 and then-No. 12 Gonzaga 101-61 on back-to-back nights to win the Players Era Championship.
USC appears solid on paper but hasn’t faced a ranked team. Tip-off is 7 pm, ET (Peacock).
We’ll preview the matchup and offer our best bet for this Big Ten showdown.
Michigan vs USC betting odds
| Betting Market | Away (USC Trojans) | Home (Michigan Wolverines) |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +22.5 (-109) | -22.5 (-111) |
| Moneyline | +1783 | -6667 |
| Total (Over/Under) | O 172.5 (-111) | U 172.5 (-109) |
Odds courtesy of consensus data, current as of January 2, 2026.
Michigan is an overwhelming 22.5-point home favorite. The moneyline disparity is even more stark, pricing the Wolverines at -6667 while USC sits at +1783 to pull the upset. The total is set at a robust 172.5 points, suggesting oddsmakers expect an up-tempo affair.
After removing the sportsbook’s commission, the betting market implies Michigan holds approximately a 98.5% chance of victory, leaving USC with just a 5.1% chance of winning. For newcomers to sports betting, a successful $5 wager on USC’s moneyline would profit $89.15, while that same bet on Michigan would return just $0.07 in profit.
If you’re in Michigan and interested in wagering on this game or others, be sure to check out these Michigan sports betting apps.
Statistical breakdown: Who has the edge?
The numbers paint a clear picture of why Michigan enters as such a heavy home favorite.
| Stat | USC | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-1 | 12-0 |
| RPI Rank | 16 | 1 |
| Strength of Schedule | 0.5737 | 0.6396 |
| Points Per Game | 89.4 | 96.8 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 75.3 | 66.5 |
| Point Differential | +14.1 | +30.2 |
| Field Goal % | 49.8% | 53.6% |
| Three-Point % | 36.5% | 38.3% |
All stats are for the 2025-26 season.
The advanced metrics cement Michigan’s elite status. The Wolverines are ranked No. 1 in RPI, against a tougher strength of schedule (0.6396 vs. 0.5737), and they are 6-0 against RPI Top-50 competition. USC is 2-0 vs. RPI Top-50.
For USC to engineer this massive upset, they’ll need leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara (21.0 points per game) and Ezra Ausar (17.1) to deliver transcendent performances while their defense exceeds season-long expectations by a wide margin.
Best Bet: Riding the Over
Michigan has proven it beat good teams by 30+ points, but the 22.5-point spread offers no appealing value, and the moneyline presents astronomical odds. For those reasons and others, the game total creates an intriguing betting angle. Because Michigan is so explosive, we like the Over.
Best Bet: Over 172.5 (-112) at DraftKings Sportsbook
This wager centers on Michigan’s elite offense. The Wolverines average a blistering 96.8 points per game on 53.6% shooting. Five Wolverines average 10+ points, led by Yaxel Lendeborg’s all-around excellence (15.7 PPG, 7.17 RPG).
USC will score, too. And, for our purposes, their defensive issues (75.3 PPA) will contribute to both teams hitting the Over.
SPORTSBOOK
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.