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No. 3 Michigan hosts undefeated and No. 5-ranked Nebraska tonight. Tip-off is set for 7 pm, ET (streaming on Peacock).
Michigan’s AP ranking is no surprise. The Wolverines (18-1, 8-1 Big Ten) were preseason No. 7 and have stayed inside the top 3 since December. Nebraska’s rise is the biggest surprise of the 2025-26 college basketball season. The Cornhuskers (20-0, 9-0 B1G) didn’t receive a single vote in the preseason AP poll and were picked to finish 14th in the Big Ten. Now? Their No. 5 AP ranking is the best in program history.
Oddsmakers aren’t impressed: They’ve installed Michigan as a heavy, 10.5-point home favorite in tonight’s Big Ten battle.
Can the Cornhuskers keep it close?
Our analysis breaks down the B1G game and offers expert betting advice for Michigan vs. Nebraska.
Nebraska vs Michigan Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | -559 | -10.5 (-105) | Over 156.5 (-105) |
| Nebraska | +408 | +10.5 (-116) | Under 156.5 (-115) |
Based on consensus odds on January 27 and subject to change
The Wolverines command respect as heavy moneyline favorites at -559, while Nebraska sits as significant underdogs at +408. The spread reflects similar confidence in Michigan, laying 10.5 points on its home court. The total is set at 156.5 points, with slight juice favoring the under.
After removing the bookmaker’s vig, Michigan carries an 81.15% implied probability of victory, while Nebraska’s chances sit at 18.85%. For betting newcomers, a $5 wager on Michigan’s moneyline (-559) would net just $0.89 in profit if they win. Conversely, that same $5 bet on Nebraska (+408) would return a hefty $20.40 profit if they pull off the stunning upset.
Michigan vs Nebraska Team Stats
| Statistic | Michigan | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 18-1 | 20-0 |
| Conference Record | 8-1 | 9-0 |
| Points Per Game | 91.7 | 80.9 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 68.6 | 65.0 |
| Scoring Differential | +23.1 | +15.9 |
| RPI Ranking | No. 2 | No. 6 |
| Strength of Schedule | 0.613 | 0.5656 |
| Record vs. Top 25 (RPI) | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Record vs. #26-50 (RPI) | 4-0 | 2-0 |
| Record vs. #51-100 (RPI) | 7-1 | 5-0 |
The numbers tell a compelling story. Michigan leads the B1G in scoring, creating that massive +23.1 scoring differential. It also has faced tougher competition along the way.
Nebraska relies on defensive prowess, allowing just 65.0 points per game. However, the Cornhuskers haven’t faced an offensive juggernaut quite like Michigan on a hostile road environment.
Best Bet
Total Points: Under 156.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Ultimately, we expect Michigan to end Nebraska’s fairy-tale, perfect start. And a case can be made that the high-octane Wolverines could even cover the massive 10.5-point spread.
The best bet, however, is trusting both teams to lock in, stifle each offense just enough to go Under the total. Nebraska, in particular, has proven it can play at a more deliberate pace.
Couple that with the notion that high-stakes conference games between elite defensive units consistently produce lower-scoring affairs, and this matchup screams defensive battle. Nebraska’s stingy defense allows just 65.0 points per game while forcing opponents into difficult shots, while Michigan’s interior defense anchored by Aday Mara (2.68 BPG) and Lendeborg (1.37 BPG) creates a formidable rim protection tandem.
Nebraska’s defensive intensity ramps up against efficient offensive teams. Michigan tightens up defensively when facing quality competition.
Both teams excel at controlling tempo. Expect a more deliberate pace that favors the Under.
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Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.