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Does Illinois have a path to a No. 1 seed? What prediction markets make of the Illini
By Adam Spencer
Published:
Illinois sits at 21-5 overall (12-3 Big Ten), firmly entrenched as the second-best team in the nation’s most competitive conference.
The Illinois Fighting Illini have won 8 of their last 10 games, with their only recent blemishes coming in back-to-back heartbreakers: a 3-point road loss at Michigan State (85-82) and a 2-point home defeat to Wisconsin (92-90), both in overtime.
Despite trailing Michigan by 2 games in the Big Ten standings, Illinois has positioned itself as a legitimate 2-seed with an outside, but still somewhat realistic, shot at cracking the 1-seed line.
Here’s what Kalshi, one of the top prediction markets, makes of the Illini’s chances for a 1-seed:
The Résumé: Quality Losses, Quality Wins
Illinois’ 5 losses paint the picture of a team that’s played one of the nation’s toughest schedules:
- vs. Alabama (90-86) — neutral site, 4-point loss to an 18-7 SEC contender
- vs. UConn (74-61) — neutral site loss to a projected 1-seed
- vs. Nebraska (83-80) — home loss to a 22-3 Big Ten powerhouse
- at Michigan State (85-82) — 3-point road OT loss to a 20-5 tournament team
- vs. Wisconsin (92-90) — 2-point home loss in an overtime thriller
Four of Illinois’ 5 losses came by single digits, and 3 were decided by 3 points or fewer. More importantly, the Illini have 0 bad losses — every defeat came against a team with at least 18 wins as of Feb. 17.
The Win Column Shines Bright
Illinois’ résumé features several marquee victories:
- at Nebraska (78-69) — road win over a 22-3 Big Ten contender
- at Purdue (88-82) — road victory over a 21-4 tournament lock
- vs. Tennessee (75-62) — neutral-site demolition of an 18-7 SEC team
- vs. Texas Tech (81-77) — home win over a 19-6 Big 12 squad
- vs. Missouri (91-48) — 43-point neutral-site rivalry beatdown
The Illini have proven they can win anywhere, anytime, with road victories at Purdue, Nebraska and Iowa highlighting their toughness.
The Remaining Gauntlet
Illinois’ path to a 1-seed runs through a tricky 5-game stretch:
The Michigan game is everything. A home victory over the 24-1 Wolverines would be Illinois’ signature win and potentially cut Michigan’s Big Ten lead to 1 game. The West Coast road trip to face USC (18-7) and UCLA (17-8) presents trap-game scenarios, but both are winnable.
The Current Projected 1-Seeds
The 4 teams most likely sitting on the 1-line right now:
- Michigan (24-1, 14-1 B1G) — Lone loss to Wisconsin, dominant all season
- Duke (24-2, 13-1 ACC) – Elite résumé, 1-point loss to Texas Tech
- UConn (24-2, 14-1 Big East) — Rolling through conference play
- Arizona (23-2, 10-2 Big 12) — Strong overall record, but 4 ranked opponents remain
The Vulnerable 1-Seed: Arizona 🎯
Of the 4 projected 1-seeds, Arizona is the most likely to drop out, and Illinois is perfectly positioned to replace the Wildcats. Here’s why:
Recent Struggles and Momentum Loss
Arizona has lost each of its last 2 games:
- at Kansas (82-78) — 4-point road loss on Feb. 9
- vs Texas Tech (78-75) — 3-point home loss on Feb. 14
The Wildcats are reeling at the worst possible time. After starting 23-0 through early February, Arizona has dropped 2 conference games in a 5-day span. The home loss to Texas Tech is particularly concerning — the Wildcats blew a late lead and couldn’t close out a game they controlled for most of the night.
The Murderous Closing Schedule
Arizona’s remaining slate is absolutely brutal:
- 2/18: vs. No. 23 BYU
- 2/21: at No. 2 Houston (23-3, 11-2 Big 12)
- 2/24: at Baylor
- 2/28: vs. No. 8 Kansas (19-6)
- 3/2: vs. No. 6 Iowa State (23-3)
- 3/7: at Colorado
The Wildcats face 3 games against teams with 19+ wins, including a road trip to Houston, the Big 12 conference leader at 23-3. The Cougars are 11-2 in conference play and have been the Big 12’s most consistent team, despite Monday night’s narrow loss at Iowa State. Arizona also gets a rematch with Kansas at home and faces Iowa State (23-3), another legitimate Final Four contender.
Realistically, Arizona could drop 2-3 more games down this stretch, which would push the Wildcats to 25-5 or 24-6 — still excellent, but perhaps no longer a lock for a 1-seed.
Big 12 Conference Tournament Chaos
Even if Arizona survives the regular season, the Big 12 Tournament presents another minefield. You can’t dodge all of Houston, Kansas, Iowa State and Texas Tech (and even BYU) en route to a conference tournament title. The Big 12 is the most top-heavy conference in America this year, and Arizona’s recent form suggests vulnerability.
Conference Standing Concerns
Arizona sits at 10-2 in Big 12 play, but they’re actually second in the conference behind Houston’s 11-2 mark. The Selection Committee values conference championships, and if Arizona finishes second in the Big 12 regular season while Illinois wins or finishes second in the equally tough Big Ten, the résumés become very comparable.
The Eye Test
Arizona’s body language in the Texas Tech loss was concerning. The Wildcats looked rattled down the stretch and couldn’t execute in crunch time with a pair of key players sidelined (including freshman sensation Koa Peat). Meanwhile, Illinois has been battle-tested all season in the Big Ten grinder and has shown resilience in close games. Plus, point guard Kylan Boswell recently returned from an injury, giving the Illini their steady leader back.
Illinois’ Best-Case Scenario
For Illinois to steal a 1-seed, it needs:
- Beat Michigan on 2/27 — This is non-negotiable. A home win over the Wolverines would be the signature victory Illinois needs.
- Go 4-1 or 5-0 in the remaining regular-season games.
- Reach the Big Ten Tournament championship game (minimum) or win it outright.
- Arizona to lose 2+ more games in its remaining schedule (very possible given the difficult slate).
A 26-6 or 27-5 record with a Big Ten Tournament title and a win over Michigan would give Illinois a compelling case. If Arizona finishes 24-6 or 25-5 with losses to Houston and Iowa State, the committee would have to choose between a fading Arizona team and a surging Illinois squad that finished strong.
The Bottom Line
Illinois has positioned itself as a rock-solid 2-seed with a legitimate path to a 1-seed. The Illini’s résumé features quality wins, 0 bad losses, and a schedule that has them at No. 4 in the NET rankings. The Fighting Illini’s fate hinges on the Michigan game — win that, and suddenly a 1-seed becomes very realistic.
Prediction: Illinois finishes 24-6 or 25-5, reaches the Big Ten Tournament final, and earns a 2-seed. But if the Illini beat Michigan and win the Big Ten Tournament while Arizona (or UConn) stumbles, the Illini could absolutely crash the 1-seed party. The path is narrow, but it’s there, and that’s all Brad Underwood’s squad needs to hear.
A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam is the news editor across all Saturday Football brands.