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Ohio State at Iowa: Prediction for Big Ten bubble clash
By Chris Wright
Published:
Not much separates Ohio State and Iowa.
Iowa has a slightly better record (19-8) and RPI (No. 43) than the Buckeyes (17-10, No. 49), but both are 9-7 in the Big Ten as the calendar races toward March.
Tonight, the Hawkeyes host the Buckeyes, each team trying to rebound from a recent loss and aid their NCAA Tournament resume. Iowa is a consensus 7.5-point home favorite. The Hawkeyes are 8-5 ATS as a home favorite this season. Tip-off is set for 9 pm, ET (Big Ten Network).
Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz (20.6 points per game) leads Iowa’s attack. Ohio State counters with floor general Bruce Thornton, fresh off being named Big Ten Player of the Week after exploding for 32 points against Michigan State. Thornton is averaging 20.4 points and 3.9 assists, but he faces a tall task leading a banged-up roster that has gone just 4-5 on the road.
Our analysis breaks down Ohio State at Iowa and offers the best betting advice.
Iowa vs Ohio State Odds
Iowa is 8-5 ATS as a home favorite this season.
| Market | Iowa Hawkeyes | Ohio State Buckeyes |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -7.5 (-107) | +7.5 (-113) |
| Moneyline | -337 | +265 |
| Total | Over 141.5 (-110) | Under 141.5 (-110) |
The oddsmakers expect a comfortable victory for Iowa. The total for the game is set at 141.5 points, with standard -110 juice on both sides, indicating the books see an equal probability of the score landing on either side of that number.
Implied Win Probabilities
Removing the sportsbook’s fee (the “vig”), the current moneyline odds imply the following win probabilities for each team:
- Iowa: 73.8%
- Ohio State: 26.2%
Betting Example: For those new to reading odds, the moneyline reflects the risk versus reward. A winning $10 bet on the favorite, Iowa (-337), would yield a profit of approximately $2.97. Conversely, a winning $10 wager on the underdog, Ohio State (+265), would result in a profit of $26.50.
Of course, purchasing contracts at Kalshi is always an option, too.
At Kalshi, you can buy an Iowa contract at $0.74 per, and Ohio State to win at $0.27. This means you would stand to win $0.26 for each Iowa contract purchased, should the Hawkeyes win, while you would stand to profit $0.63 on each OSU contract, should it win. This means your same $10 investment in Iowa at Kalshi would profit $3 versus the $2.97 at a sportsbook. A $10 investment in OSU at Kalshi would profit $25 should the Buckeyes win.
Ohio State at Iowa Team Stats Comparison
The Buckeyes hold the edge in scoring, but the Hawkeyes boast superior shooting percentages and a significantly stouter defense.
| Statistic | Iowa | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 19-8 | 17-10 |
| Conference Record | 9-7 | 9-7 |
| RPI Ranking | 43 | 49 |
| Strength of Schedule | 0.5433 | 0.5592 |
| Points Per Game | 76.0 | 80.4 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 65.1 | 73.1 |
| Scoring Margin | +10.9 | +7.3 |
| Field Goal % | 50.1% | 48.8% |
| 3-Point % | 35.1% | 34.3% |
| Record vs. RPI Top 50 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Resume Building and Injuries: Both teams are fighting for positioning, but Iowa holds the résumé advantage with a No. 43 RPI ranking compared to Ohio State at No. 49. While the Buckeyes have played a mathematically tougher schedule (0.5592 SOS), they have struggled to convert those opportunities into signature wins, going just 0-7 against RPI Top 25 opponents and 2-8 against the Top 50.
Compounding Ohio State’s issues are significant injury concerns. The Buckeyes are expected to be without second-leading scorer John Mobley Jr. (hand) and forward Brandon Noel, while Devin Royal remains questionable. This puts an immense burden on Thornton to carry the scoring load against a defense keyed in on stopping him.
Iowa vs Ohio State Prediction & Best Bet
While the B1G standings show these programs deadlocked with 9-7 conference records, the context of where and how those games were played reveals a significant disparity. The oddsmakers have installed Iowa as a solid favorite for a reason, and the smart money lies with the home team to cover the number.
The defining factor is the venue combined with defensive consistency. The Hawkeyes are 13-2 at home. Conversely, Ohio State is just 4-5 away from Columbus.
Beyond the splits, the schematic mismatch is glaring. Ohio State’s defense has been porous, allowing 73.1 points per game. That is a dangerous weakness when facing an Iowa offense that leads with surgical efficiency, shooting 50.1% from the field. Bennett Stirtz (20.6 PPG) is shooting 50.9% this season, and he should find plenty of operating room against a Buckeye defense that struggles to disrupt rhythm.
While Bruce Thornton is playing at an elite level — evidenced by his 32-point masterclass against Michigan State — he is running out of help. With key contributors like Mobley Jr. sidelined, the Buckeyes lack the secondary scoring punch needed to trade baskets with Iowa for 40 minutes. Iowa allows nearly eight fewer points per game than Ohio State, and that defensive discipline usually travels well, but it thrives at home. Expect the Hawkeyes to exploit Ohio State’s defensive lapses and depleted roster to pull away late.
Best Bet: Iowa -6.5 ($0.52 per contract at Kalshi)
A $10 investment in Iowa -6.5 contracts at Kalshi would produce a profit of $8 should the Hawkeyes cover.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.