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Iowa vs. Ohio State: Best bet for Round 3 B1G Tourney action
By Chris Wright
Published:
The 8-seed Ohio State Buckeyes meet the 9-seed Iowa Hawkeyes today in a the third round of the Big Ten Tournament. Tip-off is scheduled for 12 pm, ET in Chicago, with the national broadcast airing on the Big Ten Network.
Both teams are on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Ohio State (20-11), which received a double-bye into the third round, closed the regular season with three consecutive wins. Iowa (21-11) eliminated Maryland 75-64 Wednesday in the second round behind a massive 21-0 second-half run.
The primary storyline centers on whether Ohio State can secure redemption after falling 74-57 to Iowa on Feb. 25, or if dynamic playmakers like guard Bennett Stirtz and forward Cooper Koch can maintain Iowa’s offensive rhythm.
We’ll break down Ohio State vs. Iowa and offer the best Kalshi markets to target.
Ohio State vs Iowa Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | -122 | -1.5 (-106) | Over 140.5 (-110) |
| Ohio State | +102 | +1.5 (-114) | Under 140.5 (-110) |
The consensus odds for this matchup present a tightly contested affair. The point spread is set at a narrow 1.5 points, indicating oddsmakers expect a one-possession game while slightly favoring Iowa. For the totals market, the over/under sits at 140.5 points, allowing bettors to wager on the combined scoring output of both rosters.
When evaluating the moneyline odds, sportsbooks include a built-in margin known as the “vig.” By removing that sportsbook edge, we calculate the true no-vig probabilities for the game’s outcome. Current lines suggest Iowa has a 52.61% true probability of winning, while Ohio State holds a 47.39% chance of advancing.
For beginners navigating the betting board, a moneyline wager simply requires you to pick the outright winner. A $5 bet on the favored Hawkeyes (-122) would net a profit of $4.10 if they secure the victory. Conversely, a $5 wager on the underdog Buckeyes (+102) yields a $5.10 profit if they advance to face top-seeded Michigan.
At prediction site Kalshi, Ohio State to win contracts are $0.53 per, which equates to -113 odds. Iowa to win contracts are trading for $0.48 per, which equates to +108 odds. Both contracts offer more value than consensus odds at a sportsbook. To take advantage of those opportunities, click “PREDICT” on the graphic below.
Ohio State vs Iowa Tale of Tape
| Statistic | Iowa | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 21-11 | 20-11 |
| RPI | 55 | 40 |
| Strength of Schedule (SOS) | 0.5444 | 0.5599 |
| Record vs. Rank 1-25 | 1-7 | 1-7 |
| Record vs. Rank 26-50 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Record vs. Rank 51-100 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Record vs. Rank 101-150 | 3-0 | 3-1 |
| Record vs. Rank 151+ | 12-3 | 12-1 |
The data points to an even statistical profile. Both teams struggled against the nation’s elite, posting identical 1-7 records against opponents ranked in the Top 25. Both went 2-1 against teams ranked between 26 and 50 at tip.
However, Iowa holds a distinct advantage in the middle tiers and in head-to-head competition. Iowa is 6-0 against teams ranked between 51 and 150, showcasing an ability to comfortably handle middle-of-the-pack opponents. Most importantly, Iowa controlled the head-to-head regular season meeting, securing a decisive 17-point victory over Ohio State in late February.
Ohio State vs Iowa Best Bets &Predictions
With oddsmakers setting a 1.5-point spread, possession control and recent situational trends will dictate the outcome. Following the statistical indicators and head-to-head history, the smartest approach is to back the slight favorite on the spread and look toward the under for the total.
Spread Recommendation: Iowa -1.5 ($0.44 per contract at Kalshi)
Total Recommendation: Under 140.5 ($0.56 per contract at Kalshi)
Iowa enters with a verified rhythm at the United Center. The Hawkeyes also are 4-0 on neutral courts this season and have historically performed well in this setting, winning at least one conference tournament game in six of their past eight appearances.
The primary difference-maker is Iowa’s perimeter playmaking. Stirtz completely dictated the pace in the opening game Wednesday, logging 17 points, 6 rebounds and 8 assists. This builds on his previous success against Ohio State, where he poured in 22 points. Alongside him, Koch found his shooting stroke in the arena, converting 62.5% from beyond the arc (5-for-8) on his way to 19 points against Maryland.
While Ohio State closed its season with an impressive three-game winning streak against Purdue, Penn State, and Indiana, matching up with Iowa has proven stylistically difficult for them. In their lone regular season meeting, Iowa’s defense stifled Ohio State, resulting in a 74-57 finish. That combined 131-point output falls comfortably short of today’s 140.5 total.
Expect Iowa to lean on its established 6-0 record against middle-tier opponents and its 100% win rate on neutral floors. Back the Hawkeyes to cover the narrow spread through efficient half-court execution, while the Under provides a strong situational angle based on their previous low-scoring head-to-head clash.
Investing $10 in Iowa -1.5 point contracts at Kalshi would return a $13 profit if the Hawkeyes cover. That same $10 investment on the total would produce a profit of $8 if the teams stay below the number.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.