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History will be made today. The question is: Which side will make it?
No. 4 seed Nebraska opens NCAA Tournament play today against No. 13 seed Troy. Tip-off for this South Region opener is set for 12:40 pm, ET, in Oklahoma City, with the game broadcasting live on truTV from the Paycom Center.
The Cornhuskers (26-6) are searching for their first NCAA Tournament victory in their 9th trip to the event. Nebraska is 0-8 but is a heavy favorite today.
Troy (22-11) is riding high after winning the Sun Belt Tournament but is also searching for its first tournament victory, sitting at 0-3 all-time.
Our analysis breaks down the key metrics and trends and offers the best Kalshi markets to target for Nebraska vs. Troy in the NCAA Tournament.
Troy vs Nebraska Odds
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | +12.5 (-102) | +660 | Over 137.5 (-109) |
| Nebraska | -12.5 (-119) | -1053 | Under 137.5 (-110) |
Nebraska enters this contest as heavy 12.5-point favorites on the point spread, meaning it needs to win by 13 points or more for a bet on them to cash. Betting on Troy at +12.5 means it can either win outright or lose by 12 points or fewer for your ticket to be a winner. Meanwhile, the total market projects the combined final score, giving bettors the option to wager on whether the final tally will go Over or Under 137.5 points.
When we remove the sportsbook’s vig, the no-vig probabilities give Nebraska a dominant 87.4% chance to win the game outright, leaving Troy with a 12.6% chance to pull off the upset. The moneyline is the simplest bet you can make, requiring you to pick the outright winner. Because Nebraska is a massive favorite at -1053, a $5 bet on them yields a tiny profit of just $0.47 if they win. Conversely, a $5 wager on the underdog at +660 rewards you with $33.00 in profit if they secure the upset.
The prediction site Kalshi also has markets available for the moneyline.
At Kalshi, you can purchase a Nebraska to win contract for $0.89 per, which equates to -809 odds. That same $5 investment would produce a profit of $1, making Kalshi slightly more valuable than the sportsbooks.
Nebraska vs Troy South Region Statistical Breakdown
| Statistic | Nebraska | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 26-6 | 22-11 |
| NCAA Tournament Seed | No. 4 (South) | No. 13 (South) |
| Strength of Schedule (SOS) | 0.5425 | 0.5051 |
| Record vs. Tier 1-25 Opponents | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Record vs. Tier 26-50 Opponents | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Record vs. Tier 51-100 Opponents | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Record vs. Tier 101-150 Opponents | 5-0 | 3-3 |
| Record vs. Tier 151+ Opponents | 12-0 | 12-5 |
When evaluating the resumes, Nebraska navigated a tough slate, reflected in its 0.5425 Strength of Schedule. An obvious advantage for Nebraska is its proven ability to handle lower-tier competition; the Cornhuskers were 17-0 vs. teams ranked 101st or lower. Furthermore, they gained valuable situational experience playing six regular-season games against top-tier opponents.
Conversely, Troy went 22-11 against an easier schedule. While Troy went 2-0 against teams in the 26-50 range, a noticeable disadvantage is their complete lack of experience against elite, top-25 caliber programs.
Nebraska vs Troy Picks & Predictions
Kalshi Picks: Nebraska -13.5 ($0.49 per contract) | Under 137.5 ($0.48 per contract)
Kalshi has several markets available for today’s game, and our tools have identified the 2 best to pursue.
While finding value in a double-digit spread on a neutral floor requires careful handicapping, the data firmly points toward Nebraska handling their business in Oklahoma City.
When analyzing the situational dynamics, the most glaring disparity is preparedness. Nebraska gained valuable experience against elite competition, while Troy has not faced a top-tier opponent this season. The sudden jump in speed, size, and physicality is often a jarring adjustment for mid-major programs, and Troy will have to figure it out on the fly against a roster that features length across the frontcourt, including leading scorer Pryce Sandfort (17.2 PPG).
Nebraska has proven they do not play down to inferior competition, boasting that flawless 17-0 record against teams outside the top 100. When they are supposed to win, they typically do so comfortably. Troy showed flashes of quality play to win the Sun Belt, but their floor is concerning, highlighted by those five bad losses to sub-150 teams.
Expect Troy to bring early energy and crash the offensive glass, but over 40 minutes, Nebraska’s institutional advantages and defensive pressure should wear them down. Lay the 12.5 points and trust Nebraska to pull away in the second half for a decisive victory to break its historical tournament drought.
Additionally, with opening-round tournament nerves and Nebraska’s focused perimeter defense led by Sam Hoiberg, taking the Under 137.5 is the smartest secondary angle on the board.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.