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ESPN’s FPI predicts every game on Penn State’s 2026 schedule
By Ethan Stone
Published:
Matt Campbell’s first season at Penn State kicks off in just a few days as the Nittany Lions square off against Marshall.
The Nittany Lions are a new-look program in more ways than one. Penn State added more transfers than any program in the Big Ten, including former Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht. Many of those 40 additions came to Penn State by way of Iowa State and its former coach.
Which means Penn State should be able to hold its own immediately in Big Ten play — especially with a fairly tame schedule ahead of them. The Nittany Lions avoid Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana and get USC at home thousands of miles from Los Angeles.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) currently favors the Nittany Lions in 8 of its 12 matchups this season. Here’s how ESPN’s FPI projects the Nittany Lions’ schedule to play out:
- Sept 5: Marshall Thundering Herd | 95.5% chance to win
- Sept 12: at Temple Owls | 92.5% chance to win
- Sept 19: Buffalo Bulls | 96.4% chance to win
- Sept 26: Wisconsin Badgers | 80.3% chance to win
- Oct 2: at Northwestern Wildcats | 77.4% chance to win
- Oct 10: USC Trojans | 53.1% chance to win
- Oct 17: at Michigan Wolverines | 33.8% chance to win
- Oct 31: Purdue Boilermakers | 89.1% chance to win
- Nov 7: at Washington Huskies | 48.7% chance to win
- Nov 14: Minnesota Golden Gophers | 87.6% chance to win
- Nov 21: Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 87.7% chance to win
- Nov 28: at Maryland Terrapins | 79.1% chance to win
The Matt Campbell era at Penn State is set to start at 3:30 p.m. Saturday on FS1 against the Thundering Herd.
Ethan Stone was an editor for his student newspaper at the University of Tennessee and is now a News Manager for Saturday Tradition.