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His first name is Rocky and his last name is Lombardi. How could I have possibly thought, with names like that, that the freshman quarterback at Michigan State would lose his first career start?
The Upset Alert genius took one on the chin last week when he rode that Purdue horse just a little too long. I took the Boilers to upset injury-riddled Michigan State, but the Spartans won 23-13. After having picked two big Purdue upsets — including the upset of the year over then No. 2-ranked Ohio State — I thought this third one was in the bag. But the Spartans bowed up, and got themselves a good win.
I should have gone with that Northwestern over Wisconsin lean I had. Oh, well, No crying in my beer.
Here’s where the Upset Alert genius has placed his lot on the season thus far, with the winning tickets in bold:
- Week 1: Northern Illinois (plus-10) over Iowa: Loss
- Week 2: Arizona State (plus-6) vs. Michigan State: Outright winner
- Week 3: Ball State (plus-13) at Indiana: Loss
- Week 4: Purdue (plus-6) vs. Boston College: Outright winner
- Week 5: Penn State (plus-3.5) vs. Ohio State: Loss but covered
- Week 6: Northwestern (plus-10) at Michigan State: Outright winner
- Week 7: Indiana (plus-5) vs. Iowa: Big-time loser
- Week 8: Purdue (plus-13) over Ohio State: Outright winner
- Week 9: Purdue (plus-2 over Michigan State: Loser
So can the Upset Alert genius get back on track in Week 10? Here’s what we’re dealing with in the Big Ten this week:
- Nebraska at Ohio State (minus-18.5), Noon ET
- Rutgers at Wisconsin (minus-30), Noon ET
- Michigan State (minus 2.5) at Maryland, Noon ET
- Iowa at Purdue (minus-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
- Minnesota (minus-9.5) at Illinois, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Penn State at Michigan (minus-10.5), 3:45 p.m. ET
- Notre Dame (minus-10) at Northwestern, 7:15 p.m. ET
It’s slim pickings this week. Five of the seven games have point spreads of 9.5 points or more. I can’t see any of those underdogs winning outright, although I do find it odd that Minnesota is favored by so much on the road at Illinois and Northwestern is getting so many points at home to an undefeated Notre Dame team that always seems to stub its toe right about this time every year.
So that leaves just two games to choose from, Iowa at Purdue and Michigan State at Maryland. A case can be made for both underdogs. Maryland, with the DJ Durkin firing behind them, could rally at home. I can see that. But the Spartans taught me a good lesson last week about giving up on them too early.
So I’m casting my lot with the Iowa Hawkeyes this week. I should be concerned about Nate Stanley’s thumb, but I’m not. I saw how Michigan State’s defense made David Blough feel uncomfortable last week and I can see Iowa’s defense doing the same thing. This is Iowa’s fourth road game in five weeks, and that’s always a red flag, too. There should be several things that normally would scare me off this game.
Still, the Hawkeyes it is. I think Stanley is going to be just fine. Maybe not a six-touchdowns fine like he was at Indiana a few weeks ago, but fine enough to put up some points. I’ll go with the Hawkeyes, winning 31-24.
Tom Brew has been a recognized reporter in Big Ten sports for decades. Among other projects, he writes about Big Ten football for Saturday Tradition.