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B1G Bust? No, I’m not buying this pre-draft narrative surrounding Rashan Gary
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I get that some people already want to use the “b-word” with Rashan Gary’s NFL draft potential.
“Bust.”
He didn’t put up the numbers that many hoped he would in 2018. The fact that he was injured in the middle of his junior season didn’t help, nor did the fact that it came out that he has a nagging shoulder issue that’ll need to be addressed by whoever drafts him.
Gary didn’t necessarily exceed expectations as a No. 1 overall recruit, which was the standard he was judged against from the moment he stepped on Michigan’s campus in 2016.
But yeah, the hate has gone too far.
By “hate,” I’m referring to multiple reports this week suggesting that Gary could slip way past the front half of the first round on Thursday.
Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller reported that teams are souring on Gary because of the flagged shoulder injury and the fact that he only had 9.5 sacks in his Michigan career. Mel Kiper came out and said that according to one NFL general manager, the range for Gary is 10-28, which is an extremely wide margin for a first-round prospect. Pro Football Focus actually dropped Gary out of the first round in its mock draft. A report even leaked that Gary only recorded a 9 on his Wonderlic score.
It seems like a whole lot of negative information is leaking about a player who has never had an off-field issues, and has still been at the top of scouting reports when on the field.
Search “boom or bust draft prospects” and surely you’ll find Gary on that list. It just seems like too many people are running with the “bust” tag as it relates to Gary.
I can spin the Gary knocks into a positive in a hurry.
The lack of sacks? Well, there isn’t such thing as “sack assists” but I bet if you went back and found all of those plays that Devin Bush and Chase Winovich made, a lot of them were because the protection was so focused on stopping Gary.
Don Brown has been adamant that Gary’s position is more about being a complete player — stopping the run, pushing the tight end back to free up the other front 7 defenders, etc. — and not just pinning his ears back and rushing the passer. As Gary himself said, “causing havoc isn’t on the stat sheet.”
He’s right. What is on the stat sheet is Michigan ranking in the top 3 in yards allowed each season that Gary was a starter.
What’s also on the stat sheet is Gary’s breakout sophomore season, during which he had 13.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. Pro Football Focus had Gary down for 50 pressures that year, which speaks to the impact he made when he wasn’t getting sacks.
The lack of moves to get to the quarterback? Well, don’t most prospects have to figure out a few new tricks to not just rely on their athleticism at the next level? Maybe Gary’s knock in that department is more significant than others — especially in a draft with perhaps the most defensive line talent we’ve ever seen in the first round — because he’s a former No. 1 overall recruit.
We knew that Gary was way beyond college-level athleticism when he essentially did the combine after his freshman season and put up numbers that would’ve stacked up well against NFL prospects. That athleticism hasn’t regressed. We saw that at the actual combine when Gary ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash (first among defensive linemen and fourth including EDGE rushers), he benched 26 reps, he recorded a 38-inch vertical (first among DL) and he had a 12-foot broad jump (first among DL).
Is the combine everything? No, but doesn’t that just show that Gary is by no means maxed out as a player?
Sure, maybe a team picking in the top 5 or even the top 10 would want someone who already has it all figured out. That’s why Nick Bosa is considered a significantly better draft prospect even though both were limited by injuries in 2018.
Isn’t it strange, though, how the report comes out about Gary’s shoulder and it just feeds into this narrative that he’s going to fall in the first round? In a way, doesn’t that labral tear that he played with in 2018 almost cancel out that lack of production argument?
(For what it’s worth, I’m not a doctor but a guy who benches 225 pounds 26 times probably isn’t too hampered by a shoulder injury.)
Maybe all of this adds up to being one big smokescreen for a team that hopes Gary falls into the end of the first round. Jim Harbaugh certainly seems to think that’s the case.
“I see people trying to put out a negative thing about a player. Rashan Gary runs in the four-fives, he’s 280 pounds. He’s going to get drafted in the top 10. These people that are trying to kid themselves that he’s not, it’s comical to me.” Harbaugh said on his podcast. “They are trying to get someone to not pick him in the top 10 so he could fall. There are some people out there who would love to see him get into the 20s so they can get him. It’s fairly transparent and the way I think the pro teams go about it is that.
“They try the ‘I don’t know, I wouldn’t take him there or I wouldn’t take him here.’ Watch on draft day. He’ll get taken in that spot.”
Harbaugh might have a point. I wouldn’t rule out the idea of Gary going in the top 10 and squashing a lot of the pre-draft talk. I also wouldn’t rule out the idea of some of that skepticism being real, and that Gary could slip into the latter half of the first round.
Either way, this bust talk has gotten out of hand. After this week, Gary can set forth on his path to make sure one thing never happens again.
Nobody uses the “b-word” to describe him as a prospect.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Tradition. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.