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Penn State will be in the preseason Associated Press Top 25, but I wouldn’t rank the Lions to start 2019

Connor O'Gara

By Connor O'Gara

Published:

Come Monday, I’m guessing that Penn State will be ranked somewhere between 11-20 in the first Associated Press Top 25.

And come Monday after the preseason poll is released, my biggest disagreement will be Penn State’s ranking.

While I don’t have an AP vote — something that you Penn State fans will probably appreciate — I wouldn’t put the Lions among the top 25 teams in America for a variety of reasons. And before you call out some sort of bias, it’s worth noting that I banged the drum for Penn State throughout 2016 and 2017. What they did in that 2-year stretch was nothing short of incredible considering how brutal things were at times in 2014 and 2015.

Admittedly, I still have a bad taste in my mouth from what I witnessed against Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. But it’s far more than what the Lions’ performance in a non-New Year’s 6 Bowl said to me.

There are a few numbers that have me worried that Penn State is trending in the wrong direction heading into Year 6 of the James Franklin era.

Let’s start with the obvious. Yes, I realize it’s one that Penn State fans will disagree with. Sorry, but I don’t think 12 players transferring helps the program’s immediate future. Even if these guys weren’t going to start, they were still going to provide valuable depth had they stayed on the roster.

Here’s the complete list of Penn State players who transferred since the end of last season:

  • Tommy Stevens, QB (Mississippi State)
  • Mark Allen, RB (Duquesne)
  • Juwan Johnson, WR (Oregon)
  • Brandon Polk, WR (James Madison)
  • Irvin Charles, WR (undecided)
  • Danny Dalton, TE (Boston College)
  • Alex, Gellerstedt, OL (Virginia)
  • Jarvis Miller, LB (UMass)
  • Dae’Lun Darien, LB (Delaware)
  • Manny Bowen, LB (Utah)
  • Isaiah Humphries, DB (Cal)
  • Ayron Monroe, DB (Temple)

And in case you were wondering, Penn State only added one player via the transfer portal this offseason. That doesn’t include the 3 Lions who retired just before the start of the 2018 season. I bring that up because if this is a year in which the injury bug bites, the floor is much lower than people realize, especially in that division.

But let’s say we’re just talking about the current roster, as is. The offense ranks No. 116 in percentage of returning production after losing the most prolific quarterback in program in history in Trace McSorley, as well as the B1G’s No. 2 leading rusher, Miles Sanders.

(By the way, Penn State lost 12 players to the NFL Draft the last 2 years. Only Alabama, Ohio State, Washington and Georgia had more players drafted.)

McSorley’s passing numbers dipped significantly in the first year without both Joe Moorhead and Josh Gattis. As a senior, who probably dealt with more injuries than he let on, McSorley’s completion percentage dropped from 67% to 53%, he had 1,040 less passing yards in just as many games, his yards per attempt went from 8.4 to 7.0 and he threw for 10 fewer touchdown passes.

I have serious concerns about what Penn State’s offense looks like in a post-Moorhead/Gattis world. Franklin’s response to the passing game struggles were to fire Gattis’ replacement, David Corley Jr., immediately after the Citrus Bowl.

We probably should’ve known Corley was gone when Franklin offered up this post-Citrus Bowl answer:

Against the 6 Power 5 teams that had winning records last year, Penn State averaged 21 points. Against everyone else, they averaged 45.

OK, so that was last year’s team. Why continue to bring that up? I question how Sean Clifford is going to immediately step in and do things that McSorley couldn’t. Granted, he’ll have older versions of K.J. Hamler, Ricky Slade and Pat Freiermuth to work with.

And defensively, it’s young playmakers like Micah Parsons and Yetur Gross-Matos that have Penn State fans excited about the potential up front. Parsons came from a 2018 Penn State class that ranked No. 6 nationally, which is the answer you’ll hear when questions about the Lions’ inexperience come up.

For all of those reasons, Penn State is going to be a top 25 team to start the year. Three straight seasons of top-20 finishes with 9-plus wins makes that an automatic for a traditional power.

But it’s hard for me to overlook Franklin’s struggles against quality opponents, as well as his struggles in close games. Last year, Penn State was 2-4 against Power 5 teams with winning records. Franklin lost 5 straight games that were decided by 4 points or less dating back to the middle of 2017. Against B1G East rivals Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State, Franklin is riding a 5-game losing streak into 2019.

I’ve been critical of Franklin as an in-game decision-maker, and that still lingers heading into 2019. From taking the ball out of McSorley’s hands in two huge moments with the game on the line last year (against Ohio State and in the bowl game) to the complete collapse at the end of the Michigan State game, Franklin took a ton of heat for the missed calls he had last year.

I don’t have faith that Franklin will make the right calls needed to win those tight games against quality teams. Penn State fans are in denial if they think Franklin has it figured out.

As much as Lions fans don’t want to hear this, my gut says that this year has a very 2014-15-like feel to it. It’s a team that hovers around mediocrity and fails to beat the conference’s elite in order to compete for a Playoff spot.

I don’t want to take away what Franklin did to somehow win at Vanderbilt and to revive Penn State, but I also don’t think it should be overlooked that he’s 5-20 against ranked opponents in 8 seasons at those respective schools (Northwestern has 5 top-25 victories in the last 2 years alone). Four of those 5 wins came during Penn State’s impressive 2-year stretch from 2016-17.

So yeah, I have my reservations about Franklin leading a set-it-and-forget-it top 25 team. That’s how many will view Penn State as it gets penciled into the preseason top 25 as a second-tier contender.

I just won’t be in that crowd.

Connor O'Gara

Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Tradition. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.