Skip to content

Ad Disclosure

College Football

Here’s what’s at stake for the B1G in Week 3 and why it’ll have a Playoff impact

Connor O'Gara

By Connor O'Gara

Published:

The B1G’s non-conference margin for error is small. Real small.

There are only 10 non-conference games against Power 5 teams this year (including Michigan-Notre Dame). Ohio State and Wisconsin don’t have a Power 5 non-conference game, but they already blew past AAC contenders with total domination.

So far, the B1G is 2-2 in Power 5 non-conference matchups after Purdue rolled past Vanderbilt and Maryland stunningly trucked Syracuse. This weekend, that can change in a major way.

Four of the B1G’s 10 non-conference games vs. Power 5 teams will take place this Saturday, with the CyHawk Game getting a rare College GameDay audience. This is really the last major weekend for that discussion until the first Playoff poll comes out. Yes, that’s important, and yes, improving to 6-2 in Power 5 non-conference games would matter. A lot.

In that hypothetical scenario in which Iowa, Michigan State, Penn State and Purdue all win this weekend, the B1G would have this record against the rest of the Power 5:

  • ACC: 2-0
  • Big 12: 2-0
  • Pac-12: 1-2
  • SEC: 1-0

It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if the B1G’s only Power 5 non-conference losses came against the conference that’s already closest to Playoff elimination (Oregon AND Washington losing already was a tough pill for the Pac-12 to swallow).

Again, that’s extremely hypothetical. But what isn’t hypothetical is how much the Playoff selection committee values non-conference Power 5 wins. It makes their job easier.

There’s a reason that the SEC already has a projected 99% chance of sending a team to the Playoff, according to ESPN’s FPI.

And no, it isn’t because of some bias (ESPN gave the B1G a $1.14 billion check for broadcasting rights back in 2016).

It’s because the SEC got non-conference wins against a pair of preseason Playoff contenders in Oregon and Texas. The B1G’s lone chance for a marquee win like that is Michigan against Notre Dame.

Remember last year when the B1G was always seemingly on the outside looking in of the Playoff picture? Part of that was because of Ohio State’s dud at Purdue. But the other part of it was because the preseason contenders all lacked marquee wins.

Last year, the B1G was 6-6 in non-conference games vs. Power 5 teams. Those wins came against:

  • Boston College
  • TCU
  • Pitt
  • Iowa State
  • Virginia
  • Texas

That’s OK. Texas was the only team in that bunch who finished ranked, though. And the fact that Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin all lacked a marquee non-conference win hurt the Playoff aspirations.

Meanwhile, the SEC finished with a 9-4 record in Power 5 non-conference games. That included wins against:

  • Washington
  • Miami (FL)
  • Kansas State
  • Florida State
  • Texas Tech
  • Georgia Tech
  • Purdue
  • Louisville (2)

Auburn and LSU both had neutral-site wins against preseason top-10 teams. That benefitted the SEC all year long even though Miami underperformed and Washington’s Playoff aspirations faded quicker than expected. The SEC also benefitted greatly from that 9-4 mark.

In 2017, when the SEC got 2 teams into the Playoff — something that’s already being discussed again — it went 7-8. Pretty mediocre, right? But Alabama beat then-No. 3 Florida State in that hyped neutral-site opener and Georgia beat an eventual 10-win Notre Dame team in South Bend. Meanwhile, one of Ohio State’s two losses was that marquee non-conference matchup against Oklahoma.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — non-conference play matters. I don’t buy into the belief that teams don’t have to challenge themselves in non-conference play to make the Playoff. That 2014 Ohio State team is still the lone Playoff invitee who didn’t have a Power 5 non-conference win (I realize Washington only had to beat Rutgers in 2016 but it still counts).

That brings me back to this weekend. You might look at that slate and think, well, are Iowa, Michigan State, Penn State and Purdue really Playoff contenders in need of a Power 5 non-conference win? Those teams specifically, my guess, won’t be in the Playoff hunt in late November.

But can they tip the scales for the B1G? Absolutely. It’s one thing to have a dominant bowl record. A dominant Power 5 non-conference record is far more valuable.

As we sit here nearly 3 years removed from the B1G’s last Playoff participant, every little bit matters. Iowa, MSU and Penn State are all ranked currently. Even if you aren’t a believer in the non-conference Power 5 factor, you could at least admit that the B1G having something like 6 top-13 teams would be significant as it relates to getting a team in the field.

There’s nothing that’ll give a team the benefit of the doubt like dominating its non-conference slate.

This weekend, the B1G has a major opportunity to earn itself the benefit of the doubt.

Connor O'Gara

Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Tradition. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.