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We’re at the quarter-point of the regular season already, and six teams are starting Big Ten play. There are five teams on bye this week, so the schedule is a little thin. But there are definitely a few intriguing matchups, with Michigan visiting Wisconsin and Michigan State traveling to Northwestern.
Who has the most to prove in Week 4? Let’s find out:
1. Michigan
Surely you’ve heard the stat by now: Jim Harbaugh has never won a game as an underdog since taking over at Michigan in 2015. He is 0-6 in such games. How is that even possible? When you consider Harbaugh has lost 14 games in four seasons, you understand why Michigan has been so underwhelming.
Since 2015, there are two full-time Power 5 head coaches that have been an underdog at least 6 times and have not won a single game – Tom Allen (0-14) and Jim Harbaugh (0-6). Michigan currently a 3.5-point underdog at Wisconsin.
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) September 17, 2019
Anyways, the Wolverines are 3-point dogs at Wisconsin on Saturday. Can Michigan win a big game under Harbaugh? Maize N Brew has a breakdown of Michigan’s key games under Harbaugh, with qualifies as a ranked opponent, rivalry game (Ohio State, Notre Dame or Michigan State) and bowl games. Michigan is 11-13 in such games. In short, Michigan has fallen flat more often than its reputation and ranking suggest that it should.
That said, I don’t think a loss at Wisconsin against a very good team is the end of the world. While I’m not as high on Michigan as I was two weeks ago, it’s still September, and as we’ve learned over the years, a single loss now doesn’t mean as much as one in November. The Wolverines’ goals will all still be attainable, even with a loss at Camp Randall.
But those in the national media will rip Harbaugh up and down if Michigan can’t win the big one. The pressure will build all season, and the narrative will continue.
2. Michigan State
It’s been a tough stretch for the Spartans, who were thoroughly unimpressive against Arizona State in a 10-7 loss. Then the news breaks on Thursday that Mark Dantonio ignored warnings from his assistants in offering a scholarship to a player who was eventually sentenced to up to 10 years in prison after pleading guilty to assault with intent to commit criminal sexual penetration in the off-campus attack of a 20-year-old woman.
Probably not a ton of good vibes in East Lansing this week, to say the least.
The Spartans have an elite defense, and that will keep them in games, but if they can only muster a single touchdown, it’s still going to be tough to win games. I went more in-depth earlier this week on Michigan State’s offensive struggles, so I won’t rewrite it all here, but this stat courtesy of College Gameday’s Chris Fallica sums it up.
In Michigan State's last 5 games vs Power 5 teams (OSU, NEB, RUT, ORE, ASU), the Spartans offense has 3 TD and 9 TO in 67 drives. 1 80 yard drive. Held to single digits in 4 of 5 games. 0 TD in 3 of 5 games. 14 points at Rutgers the most in span.
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) September 18, 2019
The Spartans are favored by nine points for Saturday’s game at Northwestern. No, that is not a typo. Last week they couldn’t even score nine points, how will they do that against a good defense like Northwestern’s? Good question. Also, let’s not forget that Northwestern has beaten Michigan State three years in a row.
Michigan State desperately needs a good performance on the road, and it’s not going to be easy.
3. Nebraska
The Cornhuskers play at Illinois on Saturday, and yeah, playing against a Big Ten team that hasn’t made a bowl game since 2014 doesn’t seem like a “prove it” sort of game. But Illinois looks good so far this season, even with last week’s loss to an underrated Eastern Michigan squad (that has won three straight against the Big Ten!). Michigan transfer Brandon Peters has nine touchdown passes and only two interceptions, so Nebraska needs to be careful.
Nebraska’s early-season struggles are well-documented to this point, so a convincing win in Champaign would go a long way towards re-establishing itself as a contender in the West. The schedule only gets tougher afterwards, with Ohio State and Northwestern coming to town, followed by a trip to Minnesota. Wisconsin, at Maryland and Iowa to close the season will also be tough games.
The Huskers need to create some momentum so 2019 doesn’t spiral out of control like 2017 and 2018 did.
Ryan O'Gara is the lead columnist for Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @RyanOGara.