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The (most dangerous) Game: Michigan-Ohio State may be more significant than we’re giving it credit
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The Game will always carry weight as one of the best rivalries in all of sports. To those closest to it — players, coaches, fans, alumni — nothing matches the significance, importance and intensity of the annual clash between Michigan and Ohio State.
Jim Harbaugh called it “two states’ championships.” He talked about how players have a little extra bounce in their step when walking through the hallways of Schembechler Hall this week. Ryan Day called the rivalry a “way of life,” and that the Buckeyes live it every single day.
For the players, coaches, fans and alumni, it doesn’t get any bigger than the final game of the regular season.
It’s the perceived insignificance of this year’s matchup that seems to be the talk of the college football world, though. A popular stance this week has been that, for the first time in quite awhile, the outcome of The Game doesn’t have much impact.
Ohio State has already won 11 games, is ranked No. 1 and locked up a trip to the B1G Championship Game on Dec. 7. Even with a loss this weekend, the belief is that the Buckeyes have done enough to earn a trip to the College Football Playoff with a win over Minnesota or Wisconsin in Indianapolis.
With two losses already on its resumé and eliminated from B1G East contention, all that’s at stake for Michigan is a chance to end a seven-game losing streak to the Buckeyes and finishing the regular season with 10 wins.
In each of the previous three years, the B1G East champion and College Football Playoff implications hinged on The Game. You can understand why folks across the country may not be quite as dialed in this season as they have been in recent years.
But the 2019 edition of The Game may actually carry a little more significance than we’re giving it credit. And while it may not be a winner-take-all situation on Saturday, both teams have a lot to gain this weekend.
Don’t leave your fate in the selection committee’s hands
The last two years should serve as a reminder that the best-case scenario for Ohio State is to just end the season with a perfect 13-0 record and a third-straight B1G title in hand. Don’t leave anything up to chance.
Yes, Ohio State probably has done more than enough to earn one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff this year, even with a loss on Saturday. The Buckeyes have wins over three ranked opponents (No. 19 Cincinnati, No. 12 Wisconsin, and No. 10 Penn State) and own the nation’s most productive offense and stingiest defense.
Ohio State has won all 11 games by double digits and 10 by 24 points or more. Ryan Day has produced the most dominant team in college football this season in his first year as the head coach.
All of that should be enough.
But what happens if a one-loss Georgia defeats LSU in the SEC Championship Game, Clemson stays undefeated and Ohio State, Alabama, Utah and Oklahoma are all logjammed behind the top three, forcing the selection committee to pick one of the four? Is that really the scenario the Buckeyes want headed into the Selection Show on Dec. 8?
To avoid that worry, and the potential of being on the outside looking in again, a win over Michigan is essential.
The “if not now, then when?” question
As much as we try to avoid this conversation every year, it’s almost impossible to avoid. It’s the black coffee stain on a white T-shirt that you just can’t ignore. If Harbaugh can’t beat Ohio State this season, when will he?
Coming into the year, many believed this would be the year Michigan finally got over the hump, snapped Ohio State’s lengthy winning streak in the rivalry game and earned a B1G East title. Some of that has changed with the Wolverines dropping two early conference games and the Buckeyes fielding one of the best teams we’ve seen out of Columbus in recent memory.
Now, it’s almost been guaranteed that Harbaugh falls to 0-5 against Ohio State, a record that’s unacceptable in Ann Arbor.
Losing to Ohio State shouldn’t overshadow all that Harbaugh has done since arriving at Michigan in 2015, and it certainly doesn’t mean he should be on the hot seat (though expect that conversation to follow Saturday’s game if it’s a loss). However, it might be an indication that Michigan just isn’t built to win some of these big-time matchups under Harbaugh’s leadership. Rather than ascending to Ohio State’s level, Michigan may have to wait for one of the rare “down years” in Columbus to collect a win or two.
It may seem a bit harsh, but a five-year sample size — with three unbelievably talented Michigan teams — would be more than enough evidence to come to that conclusion.
Future recruiting could be significantly impacted by outcome
The Game is one of the biggest selling points in recruiting on both sides. So, it’s no surprise that with Ohio State’s recent dominance, it’s been able to attract the cream of the crop from some of the top high schools in the most talent-rich states. That’s just how it goes.
Day and his staff are off to an excellent start in the new regime, sitting at fourth national and No. 1 in the B1G with the 2020 class. Already, two five-star talents and over a dozen four-star prospects have verbally committed. Not bad for a transition year.
Michigan is in a nice spot, too. The Wolverines ranked 12th nationally and second in the B1G, but have failed to secure any verbal pledges from five-star recruits.
An Ohio State win on Saturday could widen the recruiting gap. A Michigan victory could close it.
If recruits see that the Buckeyes continue to run roughshod over the Wolverines on the field, they’ll understand that there hasn’t been much drop off in the transition from Urban Meyer to Day. Any hesitation about competing on a championship-caliber program will be wiped away. Perhaps more devastating for Michigan, those top high school talents will start to see that Michigan is struggling to get to that level.
Harbaugh finally getting a win over the Buckeyes would prove that, despite some disappointing losses throughout the first five years in Ann Arbor, things are headed in a positive direction. It could spark a resurgence in the program, something more of those high-caliber athletes want to be a part of moving forward.
Michigan, then, might have a chance to ascend to Ohio State’s level.
Dustin grew up in the heart of Big Ten country and has been in sports media since 2010. He has been covering Big Ten football since 2014. You can follow him on Twitter: @SchutteCFB