Once on a historic pace, Wisconsin’s defense has come back to Earth. Can Minnesota exploit it?

Less than two months ago, the Wisconsin defense was on an all-time pace. In the last two decades, no team had allowed fewer points through six games than the Badgers.

At the same time, Minnesota was struggling with non-Power Five programs. The Golden Gophers were unbeaten, but no one outside of that program felt great about Minnesota’s prospects after it limped through three non-conference wins by a total of 13 points.

Fast forward to Saturday, and it’s Minnesota’s offense that is in a great place and Wisconsin’s defense that has shown signs of vulnerability. And with a berth in the Big Ten championship on the line, that didn’t seem likely a few months ago. But here we are, with Minnesota possessing a highly efficient pass offense that has helped it put up at least 31 points in 10 of 11 games.

Here are three things to watch in the battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe, in what will be the 129th meeting between the teams:

1. Wisconsin’s shaky defense

Over the last four games, Wisconsin has allowed 375 yards or more three times. In its first seven, Wisconsin allowed 315 or fewer each game. That Badger defense was allowing just 176.5 yards per game and 3.1 per play — on par with Alabama’s 2012 team that won a national championship.

Take last week’s 45-24 win over Purdue. If you’re Wisconsin fan, you’re clinging to the fact that a Purdue team that won’t be going bowling and was led by a third-string quarterback only made this a game off of trick plays. There was the 38-yard flea flicker that led to a second-quarter touchdown, then a wide receiver threw a 37-yard touchdown later in the first half. Wisconsin was obviously caught off guard, and in fairness, that’s the point of trick plays.

On the flip side, will Minnesota even need trick plays? The Golden Gophers boast two of the best receivers in the country in Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson. That duo is No. 1 and 2 in the Big Ten in receiving yards, with each having caught 10 touchdown passes — which is also tops in the Big Ten. Make no mistake, though, this is not a pass-first offense, as Minnesota is in the top 20 nationally in rushing attempts and in the bottom 20 in pass attempts. It’s just that the Golden Gophers maximize those air attempts and put Tanner Morgan in good situations. The run-pass ratio is also a product of the Golden Gophers holding double-digit leads in the second half in nine of their 11 games.

The Badgers had better hope some of their tackling issues that also plagued them in games against Illinois and Nebraska are fixed.

2. How much juice does Jonathan Taylor have left?

Jonathan Taylor has to wear down at some point, right? Wisconsin leans on its star back, and with good reason — he’s awesome. The Badgers have attempted more than 25 passes just once.

But you watch Taylor, and he looks as fresh as ever. His cuts against Purdue last week looked like he was playing in a season opener. Teams are less apt in today’s game to use a single back as much as Wisconsin uses Taylor, instead opting for multiple backs and spread offenses. But Taylor is uniquely equipped to carry such a workload. He has the ninth-most career carries this decade, and in most cases, and the eight players ahead of him played 10-16 more games than him. If Taylor were to return for his senior season and bypass the NFL Draft (which seems unlikely), he’d be near the top of that list with Northwestern’s Justin Jackson.

Taylor has 30 career games with 19 or more carries, and yet he’s getting stronger. He has three straight 200-yard games, including 250 on a few weeks ago against a top-25 rush defense in Iowa — which allows 114 yards per game.

Minnesota has a good run defense, as it is 27th nationally in allowing 123.8 rush yards per game. The Golden Gophers did limit Georgia Southern to 123 yards on the ground (3.7 per attempt), which is noteworthy because it is eighth nationally with 259.9 rush yards per game.

This will obviously be a critical area and could determine the game. Can Wisconsin sustain drives? Can Minnesota get off the field? If Wisconsin gets ahead early, the Badgers are a tough team to come back on.

3. Minnesota’s home field advantage

The atmosphere Saturday is going to be electric. College GameDay is in Minneapolis for the first time ever. Minnesota is going to be fired up.

I think back to a month ago when Minnesota hosted Penn State in a battle of unbeatens. The Golden Gophers got off to a great start that day, scoring two touchdowns in the first 11 minutes and never trailing.

Wisconsin needs to avoid a blitz like that early on and take the crowd out of the game. The Badgers always seem to travel well, like how they went and whipped Miami in the Orange Bowl a few years ago. They trailed by just three at Ohio State in the third quarter earlier this season, too.

If the Badgers can settle in, this should be a close game. They are 2.5-point favorites in a rivalry that they haven’t lost in back-to-back years since 1993-94. Minnesota won last year 37-15 and used it as a springboard into this season. Now, the winner will meet Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game next week.

Ryan O'Gara

Ryan O'Gara is the lead columnist for Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @RyanOGara.