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B1G Confidence Part 2: Ranking the Big Ten’s bowl participants in likelihood of victory
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On the last episode of “B1G Confidence” the author dismissed the likes of Illinois and Michigan State while he hung a little bit of hope on Indiana. Who merits top confidence? Will Norm and Cliff make it back to the east coast from LA? How will Coach deal with the prank calls coming into Cheers? What does Melville’s put in its crab cakes to give them such a kick?
These “To Be Continued,” episodes really are formulaic. Here are the top four Big Ten teams in likelihood of victory for bowl season.
Team #4 Iowa vs. USC, Holiday Bowl
Kirk Ferentz is only 9-8 in bowl records, but even the good tidings for Christmas that came from USC’s decision to keep Clay Helton around will not be enough to sustain drives let alone allow explosive plays against a stingy Iowa defense. The unit should create enough chaos from the defensive line to keep the secondary out of a lot of one-on-one coverage.
Here’s to hoping Iowa decides to get a little chancy on offense, throw an extra dash of Tabasco on their sunny side up eggs and mix in some creative play calls to let quarterback Nate Stanley fling it. Even if it’s bad, it will never be as bad as the eight combined punts in the Iowa game versus Michigan earlier in the season. We’ve seen the worst, if we can survive that we can survive anything.
Team #3 Ohio State vs. Clemson, Fiesta Bowl
Enough exposure to Ohio State and the dominance of three players seeps out of any game. Take your pick from Justin Fields, J.K. Dobbins, or Chase Young, any of the three can turn a game with their performance. And that level of star player is too much for Clemson who has not seen an offense like the Buckeyes all season. Yes, even jilted Clemson
I’m still not sure if the Tigers can reap anything from being a disrespected juggernaut. It’s the only card Dabo Swinney can play, outside of quiet confidence, which seems a little too selfless for the way Swinney’s built the program.
Expect a return to playing the face for Swinney after the game. The Bob Backlund routine is more annoying than alarming unless he tries to throw Ryan Day in the crossface chicken wing in the week leading up to the game.
Team #2 Wisconsin vs. Oregon, Rose Bowl
Paul Chryst > Mario Cristobal
There is obviously much more to this selection than my preference of one head coach over another, but not much more.
The game plan Chryst and Wisconsin’s coaching staff put together against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship left the Buckeyes as vulnerable and mortal as they looked all season. Giving him over a month to prepare for Oregon is more than enough time to add a few wrinkles in the run game and allow Jim Leonhard the sort of video room time to differentiate one Oregon uniform from the next, all the way down to the specific shade of emerald green.
In full transparency, I’m colored by the clock management from Cristobal in the Auburn game to start the season and it’s hard for me to shake.
Team #1, Penn State vs. Memphis, Cotton Bowl
The Memphis coaching staff is in tatters, a group split between Tallahassee and the Cotton Bowl. Penn State seemed a year ahead of schedule based on its youth and its performance. A Cotton Bowl win is a fitting cap to a season that exceeded expectations and a jump start to the 2020 season.
There are enough stories and statistics, but mainly statistics that bear out the lack of connectivity between bowl results and success in the following season, but the game allows the Nittany Lions to come into next season with a talking point and motivational launching pad for next year regardless of outcome. If anything, they don’t have to reach for material.
Nick is a writer for saturdaytradition.com. Your overuse of GIFs forced him away from Twitter. He removed himself from consideration in the Vanderbilt heading coaching search.