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Years from now, Wisconsin football fans will remember Graham Mertz’s first start at quarterback for the Badgers.
After what felt like a decade of hype, he introduced himself to the college football world with a nearly flawless performance and put himself into Wisconsin’s record book in a blowout win over Illinois to open the B1G football season on Oct. 23.
Since that epic Friday night, we’ve definitely seen some flaws. Most recently, Mertz struggled in the Badgers’ ugly 17-7 loss Saturday at Northwestern. Not a whole lot went right for the Wisconsin offense in Evanston, and it was a rough day for Mertz.
When he signed with Wisconsin, Mertz was put under a spotlight because of the uniqueness of his situation. He had offers from all the big-name schools and chose the Badgers, a program that traditionally asks its running game to do the bulk of the work while the quarterback does just enough to keep the opposing defense honest.
Through three starts in his college career, let’s reassess what the Badgers have with Mertz.
Expectations too high
Wisconsin fans haven’t seen a difference maker at quarterback since Russell Wilson. So it’s forgivable if the Badgers faithful got a little too excited after Mertz’s first college start. Inserted into the starting lineup after senior quarterback Jack Coan injured his foot during preseason camp, Mertz guided Wisconsin to a 45-7 win over Illinois, completing 20 of 21 passes for 248 yards and tying a school record with 5 touchdown passes.
It’s tough to do much better than that in start No. 1. Wisconsin immediately became the favorite to win the B1G West, and therefore a contender for the conference title and a College Football Playoff berth.
While it was unrealistic to expect those type of numbers every time Mertz took the field, his near perfect performance right out of the gate likely raised expectations to an unrealistic level.
Struggles at Northwestern
Wisconsin took a two-week break after a coronavirus outbreak within the program, which included Mertz testing positive. He looked about average in the Badgers’ return, though a big-time performance wasn’t really needed in a 49-11 road win over Michigan. However, Mertz needed to put together at least an average game against Northwestern to take advantage of an excellent performance from Wisconsin’s defense, and he was nowhere near that last Saturday.
While it’s easy to bury Mertz after he played so poorly in what was essentially a game for the B1G West title and a spot in the conference title game, he is still just a redshirt freshman who was in his third career start against a stout defense on the road. It’s not like previous Wisconsin quarterbacks have done well at Northwestern, either, as the Badgers have lost six of their last seven games at Ryan Field.
Mertz was credited with 4 of Wisconsin’s 5 turnovers — 3 interceptions and a fumble. He completed just 23 of 41 passes for 230 yards and 1 touchdown. He started out completing 9 of his first 10 passes but then lost his accuracy and looked like — well — a freshman.
Mertz was missing throws, but it cannot be ignored that he was guiding a depleted offense. Wisconsin’s top two wide receivers, Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, were inactive and No. 3 receiver Jack Dunn exited with an injury but later returned. Also, Wisconsin’s leading pass catcher, tight end Jake Ferguson, injured his arm and was clearly not at 100 percent. The receivers who were on the field seemed to struggle to get open, and when they did find space, Mertz often missed them.
Playing shorthanded against a solid defense on the road in the B1G proved to be too much for Mertz against the Wildcats.
It’s fair to say Mertz is not as good as he was against Illinois and he is not as bad as he was against Northwestern. It would have been interesting to see how he performed against Minnesota, but obviously, that game was canceled.
It should be exciting to see how he plays in the final 2 games of the regular season, against Indiana and Iowa.
Wisconsin fans should be excited for the future with Mertz, but it might be wise to temper the enthusiasm a little bit.
Erik Buchinger brings his vast experience covering Wisconsin and B1G football to Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @DeceptiveSpeed.