10 bold predictions for Big Ten football

It’s almost time for what should be another fun season of Big Ten football. It’s Jim Harbaugh’s big year, it’s Nebraska’s comeback, it’s the post-Urban Meyer Era and all those other fun storylines.

So, let’s get bold. Some of these predictions are a little more bold than others and I’ll surely get some wrong, but that’s the fun part right?

Let’s get right to it:

1. Michigan will win the Big Ten

It’s got to happen at some point in the Jim Harbaugh era, right? Michigan will beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten this season. Here’s why. Michigan is talented across the board with a good (and maybe great?) quarterback in Shea Patterson, the offensive line is maybe the best in the Big Ten and the defense is plenty talented (and motivated after last year’s shellacking in Columbus).

This is all contingent on Harbaugh and Patterson clicking with new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, who promises an up-tempo attack that fits Patterson’s skill set. Gattis brings a strong track record from his stops at Penn State and Alabama and should help the Wolverines have one of their best offenses in Harbaugh’s tenure.

2. Ohio State won’t have a random loss this season

Unless you consider Michigan a random loss. What’s done in the Buckeyes the last two seasons has been inexplicably not showing up at Iowa and Purdue. This season, I think Ohio State goes into the Michigan game undefeated. The Buckeyes are uber talented, as always, and as long as Justin Fields stays healthy, they are a tier (or two) above everyone except Michigan.

But… if Ohio State does have a random loss, I think it is Oct. 18 at Northwestern. The Wildcats have a brutal schedule to open the season (more on that below), and they’ll be coming off their bye week with a chance to finally catch their breath. So they’ll be battle-tested and hopefully finding an identity with Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson at quarterback. Plus it’s on a Friday night, so maybe Ohio State fans won’t have time to invade Northwestern like they would if it was on a Saturday.

3. Northwestern has its worst season since 2014

While I can see Northwestern upsetting Ohio State (even though Buckeyes have only lost to the Cats once since 1972), it’s going to be a tough season for Northwestern, at least early on. It’s a great program with a great coach, but that early-season schedule is brutal. The AP poll came out this week, and Northwestern plays six ranked teams in its first seven games.

That it’s entirely possible Northwestern could win four or more of those games shows just how far the program has come. I’ll be interested to see the progress in the Cats’ offensive line. It’s their least experienced group since 2008 and is obviously crucial to protecting Johnson.

4. Penn State won’t live up to its ranking

The Nittany Lions may end up being a good team, but are they really the 15th best team in the country? They lost their quarterback (Trace McSorley) and running back (Miles Sanders) from a team that went 9-4. Penn State finished last season ranked 17th and now they are better? I’m not buying it. They are one of the least-experienced teams in the country, and that means they’ll be fourth in the East.

5. Adrian Martinez will be the most valuable player in the B1G

OK so this isn’t exactly a bold prediction, considering he is tied for the third-best Heisman Trophy odds at 10-1. But he is in a conference with two former five-star quarterbacks anxious to prove themselves. It comes down to this from Martinez: He has the skill-set, the weapons and the favorable schedule with all of his big games at home. It’s all lining for a big season from Martinez.

6. Wisconsin will win the West

It’s a wide-open West race, and everything is telling you to not pick Wisconsin. It has the toughest schedule with its three crossover games being Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. Its quarterback transferred in the offseason. But I think there will be a market correction on Wisconsin. They were probably a little overrated to open the last two seasons in the top 10 and now unranked, I think they are a little underrated.

The Badgers have arguably the best player in the conference in Jonathan Taylor, who may lead the nation in rushing this year. They have a very good, albeit inexperienced, offensive line that will allow them to play the way they want to and win on the road. In terms of narrative, this is where Wisconsin likes it. It isn’t flashy and can grind out wins without having the stigma of being a top 10 team.

7. Purdue AND Indiana are going to a bowl game

The rivals have played in a bowl game in the same season just twice (2007 and 1979). I know it’s a basketball state, but isn’t that crazy?

One of them is always average enough that it is 5-6 entering their annual game after Thanksgiving and needs to win the Old Oaken Bucket to become bowl eligible.

But that changes this year because both teams are going to be better and maybe the most-improved teams in the league besides Nebraska. Jeff Brohm is a rising star in the coaching community, in case you’ve been living under a rock, and Tom Allen has a deep IU roster with several capable quarterbacks and a stud running back. So, maybe one of those teams is fighting for bowl eligibility in the season finale, but both are going to be playing well into basketball season.

8. Minnesota will be average

Minnesota is a popular pick to make a big leap and potentially win 10 games. The Golden Gophers have 16 returning starters and their schedule is favorable (no Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State). I like P.J. Fleck, and they finished last season red-hot.

But I just don’t really trust them.

I think they’ll win their share of games, maybe go 7-5 or 8-4. But a really good team would go 10-2 at least with this schedule, which by the way features Penn State, Wisconsin and Nebraska at home. Forgive me for not trusting a team which lost by 29 to Maryland and by 24 to Illinois last season.

9. Michigan State breaks 10 points in 10 games

This is a little tongue-in-cheek, but it is incredible to think that in this era of high-flying offenses, the Spartans were held to single digits four times last season, including the 7-6 loss to Oregon in the bowl game, and they were held under 20 seven times. But nine starters are back on offense, including quarterback Brian Lewerke, so there has to be some progress, right? Or, that defense is just so nasty that the Spartans will sit on the ball and try to win 9-6. Whatever wins games, right? 

10. The Big Ten will not get shut out of the College Football Playoff again

You made it this far? OK good! Because there’s good news. Unless you’re an Ohio State fan, because I think Michigan is going to the CFP. I think the Wolverines lose once during the regular season (maybe at Wisconsin) but beat Ohio State at home and then defeat either Wisconsin or Nebraska in the Big Ten title game.

Pretty much everyone has penciled Clemson and Alabama in, myself included. It’s easy to predict a second SEC team like Georgia, but everything has to line up perfectly for it to happen. I don’t think we’ll have to worry about Notre Dame crashing the party again as it has games at Georgia and at Michigan. Utah is a popular pick out of the Pac 12 and a contender, and we’ll see how Jalen Hurts fares at Oklahoma.

So barring any mayhem, the B1G is back on the main stage. Once it gets there, though, may be a different story. I’m not bold enough to pick an upset over Clemson or Alabama.