Ten weeks of the college football season are in the books, giving us a significant sample size of data to work with for the rest of the season.

Week 10 was certainly memorable, with 7 ranked teams losing — including multiple teams that hope to be in the College Football Playoff later this year. As always, this story will aim to break down some advanced stats and other insights that should be helpful for anyone interested in the college football betting markets. Last week, this piece covered Pitt’s underlying weaknesses, Miami’s dominance in the ACC and more.

Here are 10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 10:

Buying: Iowa’s offense is … good?

Iowa’s offense has been improved all season, but the Hawkeyes have really taken a step forward in the past 2 weeks. They’ve scored 40 points in back-to-back weeks, leading to blowout wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern. That’s the good news. Want better news? The advanced stats largely back up those results.

Iowa has a 49% offensive success rate over the past couple of weeks. For context, the Hawkeyes posted a 33% success rate during the 2023 season — which landed them amongst the worst in the country. Against Wisconsin, Iowa also posted elite EPA-per-play numbers and averaged a staggering 9.3 yards per drop-back.

The change has been driven by Brendan Sullivan entering Iowa’s starting lineup. The former Northwestern transfer has completed 67% of his passes over the past 2 games while not throwing any interceptions (also he does have 2 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF). The most important element that Sullivan adds to the offense is his mobility. He’s averaging 5.8 yards per rush over the past couple of weeks and is routinely able to extend plays by moving outside the pocket as well — a trait that Iowa quarterbacks just haven’t had in recent years. There’s still some progress to be made here, but Iowa’s offense is solid.

Selling: Georgia’s offense is broken

Georgia’s offensive woes come down to a pretty simple factor: turnovers. More specifically, Carson Beck interceptions. He has 11 interceptions in his past 5 games, including 8 in his past 3. It’s a real problem for Georgia, but at this point in the season, it’s about the only one that could threaten its chances of reaching the College Football Playoff — and that’s a good thing.

I’m much more concerned about what teams do on a down-to-down basis when trying to predict future performance. After Georgia’s close call against Kentucky, I wrote that I thought the Bulldogs would end up needing another mulligan due to an offense that had just given its worst offensive performance in years. In that game against the Wildcats, Georgia’s underlying numbers were a serious concern offensively.

But that’s not really what happened to Georgia’s offense against Florida. Against Florida, Georgia posted success rate and yards-per-play numbers roughly around the 80th percentile, per Game on Paper. Outside of the Beck turnovers, Georgia found very little resistance against a solid-to-good Florida defense. Once he starts making better decisions, Georgia’s offense should be humming.

Actionable bet to consider: Georgia -2.5 vs. Ole Miss (-110 on Caesars)

Buying: This is who Clemson is now

Clemson fell in somewhat-surprising fashion to Louisville on Saturday night at home. The Cardinals were double-digit underdogs, but there were some warning signs that Clemson was not the juggernaut it had appeared to be since its Week 1 loss to Georgia. For starters, Clemson’s strength-of-schedule since that loss to the Bulldogs has been abysmal. NC State is arguably the best team Clemson has beaten so far this season, and the Wolfpack were a significantly worse version of themselves when they faced Clemson on Sept. 21.

Now with 2 losses, Clemson’s hopes of earning an at-large Playoff bid are essentially zero. The path to the ACC Championship Game is murky, too. But I’m seeing this loss to Louisville as less of a wake-up call and more of an indication of where this Clemson program is at the moment: Good enough to win most games against inferior competition, but still susceptible to upsets.

Clemson has another tough game this weekend at Virginia Tech. The Hokies are relatively close to Louisville in terms of most team-strength metrics, so I think they’re live to potentially pull off the upset here against a Clemson team that hasn’t put together a competent game yet vs. a formidable opponent.

Actionable bet to consider: Virginia Tech +6.5 vs. Clemson (-110 on DraftKings)

Selling: Ole Miss fixed its offense vs. Arkansas

After blowing out soft competition throughout nonconference play, Ole Miss had a pretty uneven October. The Rebels dropped 2 SEC games last month and never really reached the offensive upside that they showed the prior month. That changed in Ole Miss’s first November game as Lane Kiffin’s team dropped 63 points on Arkansas in Fayetteville. At first glance, the numbers back up that gaudy scoring output: 9.18 yards per play, 51% success rate and 0.38 EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. Those are elite numbers.

However, I have some concerns about the market potentially overvaluing this Ole Miss offense ahead of the Georgia game due to this performance. The primary reason is I’m highly skeptical that Georgia will concede the number of explosive plays that Arkansas did. Where does Ole Miss turn if Georgia shuts off the Jordan Watkins faucet in a way that Arkansas couldn’t? Tre Harris hasn’t been healthy in a long time, so that’s not an avenue I feel comfortable trusting. And even against Arkansas, Ole Miss struggled to run the ball efficiently (21st percentile in EPA-per-rush).

Actionable bet to consider: Ole Miss team total under 26.5 points (-108 on FanDuel)

Buying: Ohio State’s win over Penn State was dominant

Ohio State’s 20-13 win over Penn State on Saturday wasn’t as close as it seemed. Sure, Penn State only lost by 7 despite going o-for-2 on opportunities inside the 5-yard line. But Ohio State also spotted Penn State points off Will Howard turnovers — one pick-6 and one fumble that took 6 would-be points off the board for the Buckeyes.

The advanced numbers show a decisive victory for Ohio State. Per Game on Paper, Ohio State out-gained Penn State by more than a yard per play and had a 6% advantage in net success rate. Ohio State had a higher explosive play rate, too, and Penn State’s advantage in the running game ended being rather negligible. And when you hold an opposing offense to -0.43 EPA-per-drop back (9th percentile) as Ohio State did to Penn State on Saturday, it really has an impact on how you see the dominance of Ohio State’s red-zone defense. There was nothing flukey about it — Ohio State’s defense was thoroughly dominant on a down-to-down basis. Credit them for showing up when it mattered most, too.

Selling: Army can compete with good teams without QB Bryson Daily

Army quarterback Bryson Daily was a late scratch from the program’s rivalry game against Air Force on Saturday due to an undisclosed issue. The Black Knights won 20-3, so his absence didn’t end up hurting them too much. But the numbers suggest Army was fortunate to not be in a closer battle. Army’s offense regressed to a 35% success rate without Daily running the show. That’s a putrid number against almost anyone, let alone a defense like Air Force’s that’s been a relative pushover this year (104th nationally in yards-per-play allowed).

Army got very little done in the passing game and Daily’s replacement, Dewayne Coleman, averaged just 2.6 yards per rush. Army got out of Saturday’s game unscathed because of some careless turnovers by Air Force, but there are tougher games ahead for the Black Knights.

To further illustrate Daily’s impact, his late scratch caused about a 3.5-point shift in the betting lines for the Army-Air Force game on Saturday morning (from -21.5 to -18, roughly, depending on the book). It’s notable because service academy quarterbacks wouldn’t typically be worth 3.5 points on the spread, and that movement may have actually undersold Daily’s value to Army’s offense considering how the Air Force game played out. Daily’s status is something to monitor closely moving forward if you plan to bet on Army in the coming weeks.

Buying: NC State’s offense is legit

NC State spent the first part of the year lost in the wilderness, but I think the Wolfpack have found their way. I wrote about NC State’s offense in the Week 7 version of this story, noting improved offensive numbers in its loss to Syracuse. Since then, NC State’s passing game has completely come to life. The Wolfpack averaged almost 8 yards per drop back against Cal and over 9 yards per drop back against Stanford. CJ Bailey has a passer efficiency rating of 192.6 over his past 3 games. For context, that would rank 2nd nationally if he kept that up for the full season.

NC State will host Duke this weekend as it takes a swing at clinching bowl eligibility. The Blue Devils have a good defense, but not an elite one. With the way NC State is rolling right now — and with bowl eligibility on the line at home — I like the Wolfpack to score in bunches.

Actionable bet to consider: NC State team total over 27.5 points (-106 on FanDuel)

Selling: Tennessee’s offense is (currently) Playoff-worthy

Tennessee meandered its way to a 28-18 win over Kentucky on Saturday.

Tennessee has solidified its identity around defense and running the ball. That’s a good thing, despite how much hype Nico Iamaleava had entering the year. Excluding garbage time, Tennessee has a run rate north of 56% so far in SEC play. Over and over again, Tennessee has learned that running the ball with Dylan Sampson is its best course of action for moving the ball on offense.

But Tennessee does need a bit more support from its passing game than it is getting. The Vols have produced very little in the explosive plays department this season — rushing or passing. Through 5 SEC games, Tennessee has amassed just 56 total plays of 10+ yards. That ranks 12th in the SEC and is just 1 play above Oklahoma’s putrid offense.

Per Game on Paper, Tennessee is in the 28th percentile in passing explosiveness. That’s up from where the Vols ranked a year ago, but still way down from the heights of the Hendon Hooker-led 2022 season. The struggles aren’t all on Iamaleava — Tennessee’s receiving corps has had some key drops this season. But if the Vols are going to take the next step, this is an area that has to improve during the month of November.

Buying: South Carolina-Vanderbilt deserves your attention

I’ve been critical of South Carolina and Vanderbilt throughout this season, but they both earned convincing wins over solid opponents Saturday. That’s especially true of the Gamecocks, who dispatched a top-10 team in Texas A&M thanks to a truly outlier offensive performance. South Carolina averaged 7.6 yards per play against the Aggies, which is their best mark in any SEC games this season by more than 1 yard per play.

Vanderbilt’s win over Auburn wasn’t nearly as impressive on the surface, but the Commodores were significant underdogs in that matchup and still won 17-7. Vandy’s defense got more than enough stops to ensure that a slow offensive day wouldn’t cost the Commodores a victory.

In their head-to-head matchup this weekend, I prefer the Gamecocks. With a legitimately awesome offensive performance under their belts, I expect this team to take a ton of confidence into Nashville this weekend in search of another SEC victory. There’s also this: South Carolina ranks 33rd nationally in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric. Vanderbilt ranks 77th.

Actionable bet to consider: South Carolina -3.5 (-110 via bet365)

Buying: Ashton Jeanty is wearing down

I’ve been concerned about Ashton Jeanty’s potential Heisman Trophy campaign for several weeks, but I think we’re starting to see signs of Jeanty wearing down. Can you blame him if that’s the case? He’s averaged almost 24 carries per game this season and has gone over 30 in each of Boise State’s past 3 contests.

On Friday night against San Diego State, Jeanty rushed for 149 yards and a couple of scores — but the Aztecs really made him earn it. Jeanty had a 39% success rate, which is far below his season average of 46%. His EPA-per-rush was also in the negatives for the second consecutive week.

Jeanty is now a solid 4th in the Heisman odds behind Cam Ward, Travis Hunter and Dillon Gabriel. I still think he ultimately gets — and deserves — a spot in New York City as a finalist, but I expect his chances to win will continue to fade down the stretch.