Week 11 of the college football slate is in the books.

As we’re nearing mid-November, we’re gaining more and more information on these teams each week. As always, this piece will aim to break down some advanced stats that should be insightful for anyone interested in the college football betting markets. Last week, this story covered Ohio State, South Carolina and more.

Here are 10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 11:

Buying: Penn State can make noise in the Playoff

I think accusations of fraud have gone too far with this Penn State team. The Nittany Lions are only guilty of one sin: Being worse than Ohio State. There’s no shame in that, particularly in a year where the Buckeyes are a clear top-2 team in the country. They have no obvious weaknesses in their statistical profile. Per Game on Paper, they’re in the top 15 nationally in success rate for passing offense, rushing offense and rushing defense. They’re 30th in pass defense, so it’s not like that’s a glaring weakness, either. And crucially, Penn State proved this past weekend that there has been no hangover since its big loss to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions absolutely crushed Washington 35-6 on Saturday. I think Penn State is angry and I’m bullish on what this team can do in the Playoff while everyone is focused on Ohio State and Oregon. In the more immediate future, I like them against a sulking Purdue team in Week 12.

Actionable bet to consider: Penn State -28.5 (-110 on bet365)

Selling: Indiana is a top-5 team

I take no pleasure in saying this, but I’m not ready to believe in Indiana as a top-5 team. The Hoosiers are 10-0, yes, but their strength of schedule still ranks 100th nationally, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. I think Indiana has the schemes and discipline to crush other programs with equal-or-inferior talent, but that doesn’t mean the Hoosiers can hang with the big boys. We saw a similar dynamic earlier this season with Clemson’s 6-game winning streak against questionable talent — sandwiched between blowout losses to Georgia and Louisville. The good news is that we’re going to find out soon enough, as IU makes the trip to Columbus in Week 13. There are some lookahead lines out there that I think are not giving the Buckeyes enough credit.

Actionable bet to consider: Ohio State -9.5 against Indiana (-120 on FanDuel)

Buying: Georgia could lose to Tennessee

Georgia is coming off a horrible offensive performance against Ole Miss. It seems like the Bulldogs have either been incapable of moving the ball or much too willing to give it away in most games this season. The result has been a disastrous offensive season for UGA, with the problems seemingly changing from week to week. Georgia’s offense ranks 66th in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. For context, the Bulldogs ranked 5th in that stat last season. Now they face a Tennessee team that ranks No. 3 nationally in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play. The Vols also have an elite rushing attack that should go a long way toward keeping this game close. I’m taking Josh Heupel at his word that Nico Iamaleava will be healthy this weekend. I like the Vols plus the points in Athens and I don’t hate the money line, either.

Actionable bet to consider: Tennessee +9 (-110 on Caesars)

Selling: Colorado to make the Playoff

Colorado’s momentum toward the College Football Playoff has been building for a couple of weeks. That’s probably not going to slow after the Buffs went into Lubbock and beat Texas Tech by 14. However, I remain skeptical of Colorado’s ability to run the table. This team has 3 regular-season games left and would be wise to sweep them to avoid being in the 2-loss tiebreaker mess for 2nd place in the Big 12. But even if Colorado does win out, it would still have to beat (likely) BYU in the title game. The combination of that plus having to play at Kansas in Week 13 and BYU in the title game is enough for me to fade Colorado’s Playoff hopes.

Actionable bet to consider: Colorado to miss the College Football Playoff (-130 on DraftKings)

Buying: Ole Miss is elite

Ole Miss has a couple of losses this season, but the Rebels should be discussed in the same conversations alongside other title contenders like Oregon, Ohio State and Texas. The strength of this Ole Miss team is on defense, which is a scary thought considering the Rebels are quite good offensively as well. Per Game on Paper, Ole Miss ranks in the top 10 nationally in EPA-per-play pass defense and rush defense. Jaxson Dart isn’t a perfect QB, and you’d like it if Ole Miss were a little more efficient in the run game, but this is a team that no one will want to play in the College Football Playoff. I don’t think the Rebels are going to be significant underdogs in any game they play in the CFP, so I see some value on betting them to win it all.

Actionable bet to consider: Ole Miss to win the national championship (+1000 via ESPN BET)

Selling: Notre Dame is a Playoff lock

It’s not really worth analyzing Notre Dame’s 52-3 win over Florida State — the Noles have clearly packed it in and I’m not sure there’s anything we could learn from Notre Dame’s performance in that game. But it may give us a brief opportunity to sell high on the Irish. Given Notre Dame’s win probabilities (per FPI) in each of its final 3 games against Virginia, Army and USC, we can infer that its chances to lose another regular-season game this year are about 41.7%. If Notre Dame does drop 1 of those 3 contests, it’s Playoff hopes would surely be finished. There are football reasons for doubting this team, too — Notre Dame has a very mediocre passing attack and its rush defense has been a bit disappointing, given the quality of competition. With that in mind, I think there’s value in betting against the Irish to make the Playoff.

Actionable bet to consider: Notre Dame to miss the CFP (+255 on FanDuel)

Buying: The clock is ticking for Brent Venables

It’s been a nightmare season for Oklahoma — one that Brent Venables couldn’t afford to have after going just 16-9 during his first 2 seasons. A catastrophic offensive coordinator this offseason — plus a cluster of injuries at WR and OL — have sunk this season. And yet, Oklahoma had every opportunity to win at Missouri on Saturday night. Instead, Oklahoma will now require an upset win over LSU or Alabama in order to extend its streak of postseason appearances. The Sooners haven’t missed a bowl game since 1998 — the year before they hired a young defensive coordinator out of Florida named Bob Stoops to take over the program. If OU does ultimately go 5-7 overall and 1-7 in SEC play, I expect Venables to be on an extremely hot seat going into 2025.

Selling: Miami is in trouble

I’m not backing off Miami even after its 28-23 loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday. The Canes out-gained GT in raw yardage and on a per-play basis. Miami also had a higher net success rate and was much more efficient in the passing game. It lost mostly due to performance on 3rd down — Miami was 3-of-10 and Georgia Tech was 9-of-14. The Canes also went 1-of-4 on 4th down. Georgia Tech earned this win and there were certainly some worrying signs from the Miami defense — but I’m not worried about the Canes the rest of the way.

Buying: Oklahoma State has quit

Oklahoma State has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country, and its season seems to be unraveling more each week. The Cowboys are 0-7 in Big 12 play. All but 2 of those losses were by double digits, and most were uncompetitive. Mike Gundy may have finally lost the locker room in Stillwater, because it sure looks like this team has quit. Oklahoma State has slipped to 103rd nationally in Game on Paper’s adjusted EPA-per-play stat. That ranking might flatter this version of the Cowboys, considering how they’ve played over the past couple of weeks. OSU is idle in Week 12, but this is a team to fade for the rest of November.

Buying: South Carolina is the team no one wants to play right now

Look, South Carolina isn’t going to make the Playoff this season. The Gamecocks already have 3 losses and are short on statement wins outside of their victory against Texas A&M a couple of weeks ago. But boy, this looks like a super dangerous team for the remainder of the year. The defense has been there all season, but the offense has really come alive in the past couple of weeks. South Carolina has now averaged more than 7 yards per play offensively in back-to-back games. The Gamecocks host a banged-up Missouri team on Saturday night in what could be a blowout.

Actionable bet to consider: South Carolina -13.5 vs. Missouri (-110 on Caesars)