A wild Week 13 is in the books.

As always, this story will aim to break down some advanced stats and other insights that should provide value for anyone interested in the college football betting markets. Last week, we discussed Arizona State’s path to the Big 12 Championship Game, Florida’s bright future, Tulane’s status amongst Group-of-5 teams and more.

Here are 10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 13:

Buying: Indiana still belongs in the Playoff

As Indiana’s 38-15 loss to Ohio State was wrapping up on Saturday, I wasn’t sure whether the Hoosiers had done enough to stay in the Playoff conversation. Frankly, I was leaning toward excluding them.

But after seeing the carnage that unfolded in the SEC over the next several hours, I believe Indiana still deserves a seat at the table.

No, IU’s offense wasn’t effective against Ohio State in Columbus — season-lows for points, total yards, etc. But Indiana is far from the first team to run into those sorts of struggles at The Shoe. IU’s dominance in other games this season should count for something — particularly if its résumé is being compared to 3-loss programs from the SEC or 2-loss programs from the ACC.

Advanced efficiency metrics still back up Indiana’s prowess, too. The Hoosiers are No. 11 in this week’s SP+ rankings update and No. 9 in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. I’m not sure what will happen the next time Indiana faces an elite team — but I think we can safely say it has done enough to earn an opportunity to find out (assuming a win against Purdue on Saturday).

Buying: Ashton Jeanty should be getting more Heisman buzz

I’ve been pretty reluctant to consider Ashton Jeanty a serious threat to win the Heisman Trophy all season, but it’s becoming clear that this Heisman race is unique.

The quarterbacks have taken a back seat with efficiency down across the board in 2024. Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel still have an outside shot at this, but Jeanty and (more so) Colorado’s Travis Hunter are the frontrunners entering Week 14.

Hunter is a heavy favorite at FanDuel as of this writing after scoring 2 more touchdowns this past weekend. However, he did so in a loss to Kansas. That result means Colorado will need some help next weekend in order to make it into the Big 12 Championship Game.

If Hunter doesn’t play on conference championship weekend (which is the most likely outcome at this point), then I do think Jeanty is undervalued at his current price. Jeanty is putting up historic numbers while combining efficiency and volume that college football hasn’t seen from a running back in close to a decade. He leads the country with 2,062 yards and 27 TDs. No other RB even has 1,500 yards yet.

It’s a roll of the dice at this point, but I do see some value in backing Jeanty at this stage.

Actionable bet to consider: Ashton Jeanty to win the Heisman Trophy (+600 at FanDuel)

Selling: Georgia has a good chance to win the national championship

Lost in the chaos of Saturday was Georgia’s frankly-embarrassing performance against UMass. The Bulldogs ultimately won 59-21, but this wasn’t a situation where most of the damage was done in garbage time. The Minutemen’s final touchdown of the day made it a 31-21 affair early in the 3rd quarter.

Georgia was never actually in danger of losing to UMass, but that’s not the point. The issue is that Georgia’s run defense has been a step below par all season and is now coming off of a game in-which it allowed the Minutemen to produce an EPA-per-rush in the 96th percentile, per Game on Paper.

We’ve seen Georgia at its peak a couple times this season. When it gets to that level, the Bulldogs have a chance to win the national championship. But the consistency simply hasn’t been there on a week-to-week basis like we usually see with Kirby Smart-led UGA teams. The schedule has been extremely tough, yes, but Georgia has had hiccups on one side of the ball or the other against teams like Kentucky, Mississippi State and now UMass. What happens when Georgia has issues against another strong team in the postseason? I’m not sure UGA is strong enough on either side of the ball to have enough margin-for-error when the competition ramps up again.

In the short term, I like Georgia Tech to beat the number this weekend as Georgia has its eyes on the SEC Championship Game.

Actionable bet to consider: Georgia Tech +19.5 (-110 via ESPN BET)

Selling: Playing on the road in the SEC is usually this hard for top teams

The SEC had a rough go of it this weekend — at least as far as Playoff aspirations are concerned. Playoff-hopefuls Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M all lost against unranked opponents on the road this weekend.

That was a continuation of what’s been a season-long trend in the SEC that’s abnormal when compared to recent seasons. According to Radar360, ranked SEC teams are just 11-7 in road games against unranked opposition so far this season. That’s the worst winning percentage (61.1%) for the conference as a whole under those circumstances since 2018. Last season, that figure was over 80%. In a couple recent seasons (2019 and 2020), the win rate in those circumstances has been over 90%.

It speaks to the idea that there are no elite teams in the SEC this year. But perhaps equally so, it highlights the quality of the depth in the SEC — particularly when those teams are playing at home.

Buying: NC State can still get bowl-eligible

In a loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday, NC State out-performed the Yellow Jackets in terms of success rate, yards per play, EPA-per-rush, explosive play rate and red zone success rate. The problem was NC State finished -2 in turnover margin, but I expect the Wolfpack to play a cleaner game Saturday vs. rival North Carolina with a bowl berth on the line.

There’s also a least a little bit of bad blood between UNC and NC State that has been brewing for the last few years (OK, decades, but especially lately). The Wolfpack have won 3 straight in this series despite Carolina having an NFL-caliber quarterback for each of those matchups.

NC State has been the tougher team in each of those games. Its player development has been far superior over the past few seasons, too. I think that shows up again on Saturday.

Actionable bet to consider: NC State +3.5 (-110 on Caesars)

Selling: Clemson deserves to be favored vs. South Carolina

I was a bit surprised to see Clemson as a favorite vs. South Carolina per most sports books when that line opened Sunday. The Tigers are at home, yes, but they’re dealing with well-documented offensive line issues and will now be tasked with facing one of the most disruptive defensive fronts in the country.

This strikes me as a major matchup problem for the Tigers, and I’m not sure they have the talent in other areas to make up for their shortcomings up front. The Gamecocks’ offense has proven itself to be elite during November and its defense has caused havoc consistently all season.

Meanwhile, Clemson’s offense has struggled mightily anytime it has faced a competent defense.

There’s also the matter of special teams. Shane Beamer and the Gamecocks have a very strong special teams unit, as you’d expect considering the head coach’s pedigree. On the other side, Clemson’s special teams unit ranks outside of the top 100 nationally, per SP+. Perhaps more to the point: Clemson has already had 8 kicks blocked this season. That’s frightening, especially going into a matchup against a member of the Beamer family.

Actionable bet to consider: South Carolina +2.5 (-110 via bet365)

Buying: Purdue should move on from Ryan Walters

Ryan Walters isn’t quite finished with Year 2 at Purdue, but I wouldn’t blame the Boilermakers’ administration for deciding they’ve seen enough.

By most metrics, Purdue has been the worst power-conference team in the country this season. They are 118th out of 134 teams in SP+’s latest update. They’re outside of the top 130 in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted net EPA-per-play.

Purdue has been so uncompetitive that it has a -197 point differential in 8 conference games this season. Depending on what happens in Week 14 against Indiana, it’s possible Purdue will post the Big Ten’s worst point differential for a single season since Rutgers finished -304 in 2019, per Radar360.

Even with Purdue playing a closer-than-expected game in East Lansing this past weekend, I think it’s the right time to pull the plug. There aren’t projected to be any other Big Ten or SEC jobs that open this cycle, meaning Purdue would have its pick of the top Group-of-5 coaches who are looking to make the jump to the big leagues. (That certainly worked for Indiana.) That almost certainly won’t be the case next year with any number of SEC or Big Ten jobs that could open after the 2025 campaign.

Selling: Auburn is a bad football team

Auburn squeaked out its biggest win of the season on Saturday night, beating Texas A&M 43-41 in 4 overtimes at Jordan-Hare.

While this particular win may have been a bit fortunate, it was well-earned in many ways. Auburn out-gained Texas A&M 6.5 to 5.3 on a yards-per-play basis. But more to the point: Auburn was due.

Even after picking up this win, Auburn is 2.7 wins below its expected win total according to SP+’s postgame win expectancy formula. That makes the Tigers the least-fortunate team in the country for the 2024 campaign in that stat, and it’s not close, either. Ole Miss, the next-closest power-conference team, is -1.8 in that category.

Auburn’s offense has taken significant strides this season, and its defense has some potential as well. The Tigers likely aren’t going bowling in 2024 barring an Iron Bowl upset for the ages on Saturday, but I still think there’s some reason for optimism heading into 2024 that isn’t easy to see by just looking at the standings.

Buying: Manny Diaz deserves Coach of the Year buzz

When Mike Elko left Duke for Texas A&M, many assumed the Blue Devils would take a step back in 2024. A lot of the roster, including quarterback Riley Leonard, departed in the offseason.

Duke placed 11th in the official ACC preseason media poll and some experts projected the Blue Devils to finish even worse. Instead, Duke is 8-3 going into this week’s game against Wake Forest. The Blue Devils have a legitimate chance to win 10 games — including a bowl victory — for just the 2nd time.

The numbers back up what Duke has accomplished this year, too. SP+ has the Blue Devils as a borderline top-40 team. Indiana’s Curt Cignetti likely has national coach of the year locked up, but Diaz deserves some credit for the job he’s done in Durham this season. And in a field of ACC Coach of the Year candidates that includes SMU’s Rhett Lashlee, Miami’s Mario Cristobal and Georgia Tech’s Brent Key, I think Diaz is the clear choice.

In the short term, I like Duke against a Wake Forest team that has nothing to play for in Week 14.

Actionable bet to consider: Duke -4 (-108 via DraftKings).

Buying: Nebraska’s offense can be elite under Dana Holgorsen

Nebraska made some waves earlier this season when it decided to replace Marcus Satterfield with Dana Holgorsen. That moved certainly paid off in a 44-25 win over Wisconsin on Saturday — a victory that will send the Huskers bowling for the first time in nearly a decade.

Nebraska’s scoring output crossed 40 points for the first time in a Big Ten game since 2021. Offense has been a huge issues throughout the Huskers’ bowl drought, as this was just the 7th time they’ve cleared that threshold in a conference game since the start of the 2017 season (per Radar360).

The Huskers averaged 6.4 yards per play and posted a success rate in the 78th percentile, per Game on Paper. I have no idea if Matt Rhule intends to bring Holgorsen back in 2025, but this style of offense is clearly a better fit for Dylan Raiola and the Huskers than what they previously had been running. Raiola’s 293 passing yards represents his highest total in a Big Ten game since Nebraska’s conference-opener against Illinois way back in September.