Week 3 of college football action is in the books.

As with Week 2, this story will break down some advanced stats and other insights that should be helpful for anyone interested in betting on college football in the weeks to come. Last week, we covered Arkansas’ offensive prowess, Michigan’s surprising defensive issues and a lot more.

Let’s examine some overarching narratives and see if they line up with with the underlying data says after Week 3:

Buying: Oregon’s offense is back

Oregon snapped out of its early-season funk Saturday, blasting Oregon State 49-14 on the road. The Ducks put up elite numbers across the board: 95th percentile (or above) in success rate, EPA/play, EPA/drop back, yards-per-play, 3rd-down success rate and more, per GameOnPaper. This was the Oregon offense we expected to see from the outset, with Dillon Gabriel averaging well over 10 yards per attempt and using his legs to make plays as well.

Look, Oregon State isn’t very good this year. But neither is Idaho, and the Ducks still struggled in that Week 1 matchup. I’m glad to see Oregon snap out of its funk and I expect to see more performances like this in the coming weeks.

Selling: This was Georgia’s mulligan … and it won’t need another

Almost immediately after Georgia’s close call in Lexington, a narrative began to form: Winning on the road in the SEC is hard. Head coach Kirby Smart even invoked it during his postgame media hit, recalling previous Georgia teams that struggled on the road at Auburn in 2023 and Missouri in 2022. But the advanced numbers point to this not being a typical Georgia sleep-walking episode.

UGA’s offense was below-average in success rate, EPA per play, explosive play rate and plenty of other underlying stats against Kentucky. That just wasn’t the case in the previous games cited. Against Auburn last season, Georgia averaged 9.48 yards per drop-back — a near-elite number. Against Mizzou in 2023, their success rate was in the 86th percentile per GameOnPaper. The issue in the near-misses at Auburn and Mizzou were turnovers, but the Dawgs were actually +1 in the turnover department in Lexington — they just couldn’t move the ball.

Smart certainly has earned the benefit of the doubt, but this was Georgia’s worst offensive performance in years — and I’m leaning toward it being more of a harbinger of things to come than another annual aberration.

Actionable bet to consider: Georgia under 10.5 wins (-140 at Caesars)

Buying: Marcel Reed should get more opportunities at Texas A&M

Quarterback Marcel Reed was awesome in Texas A&M’s blowout win over Florida on Saturday — its first road victory of any kind since the 2021 season. Reed started in place of Conner Weigman, who is dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder. I’m not saying Reed should absolutely be the starter moving forward (Weigman showed enough promise last season to look past 1 poor performance vs. Notre Dame), but I do think there’s a case to be made that he deserves real playing time even when Weigman is healthy.

He’s more dangerous with his legs and has been a more efficient passer over a very limited sample size to start the 2024 season as well. Reed’s average depth of target is 9.7 yards and he did a good job of avoiding turnover-worthy-plays vs. the Gators too. I’m interested in seeing more of what Reed can do under center.

Selling: Oklahoma’s offense can score enough to hang with Tennessee

Oklahoma’s injury issues have been very well-documented. But even if the Sooners get players like Branson Hickman and Nic Anderson back this week, I think the offense will have a difficult time keeping up with the Josh Heupel’s Vols. One reason is OU’s struggles in the 2nd half over the past 2 weeks. The Sooners have averaged just 3.5 yards per play in the second half of its previous 2 games against Houston and Tulane. That seems to indicate Oklahoma has been slow to adjust after halftime to the new looks it’s getting from opposing defenses, which makes sense given its inexperience at quarterback and on the offensive line. A less-generous reading of the situation could be that new offensive coordinator Seth Littrell is getting out-coached at halftime.

It’s not like OU has been lighting up these teams in the first half, either, but the fact that there’s been such a steep drop-off in the second half is a red flag ahead of Tennessee’s trip to Norman. There’s also this, via CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli: Oklahoma leads the country in points-off-turnover margin entering Week 4, something that likely won’t be sustainable for the rest of the year. The Sooners have been getting a lot of help from their defense in the early going, and they’ve still been underwhelming offensively.

Actionable bet to consider: Oklahoma team total under 24.5 vs. Tennessee (-113 via FanDuel)

Buying: Indiana is going to be a tough out under Curt Cignetti

I don’t think anyone in the Big Ten is excited about playing Indiana right now, and for good reason. Just ask UCLA about its experience this weekend. The Hoosiers stormed into the Rose Bowl and put 42 points on the Bruins, but it could have been worse. Indiana posted a 51% success rate and has an EPA-per-drop-back that ranks in the 89th percentile.

The Hoosiers were dominant defensively as well, holding UCLA to just 5.1 yards per play. I’m not sure the ceiling is particularly high in Bloomington, but the Hoosiers may not lose for awhile. IU is a heavy favorite over Charlotte this weekend and will likely be favored in its next 2 Big Ten contests against Maryland and Northwestern. Then Nebraska comes to town on Oct. 19 for what could be a Top-25 showdown.

Selling: LSU’s defense is broken beyond repair

LSU gave up 33 points in a narrow win over South Carolina this past weekend. The Gamecocks have one of the most anemic offenses of any power-conference team, so ordinarily alarm bells would be ringing in Baton Rouge. But the numbers say this was probably LSU’s best defensive game of the season minus about 3 plays. The Gamecocks got loose for 3 explosive plays on the ground — including touchdown runs of 66 and 75 yards. But outside of those explosive plays, South Carolina’s offense posted a total EPA of -16.14 per GameOnPaper. Its success rate was just 36%.

So while the final score looks ugly, I think there’s reason to believe LSU is making some progress. There will certainly be some SEC offenses who embarrass LSU later in the season, but this upcoming weekend is a good opportunity for LSU’s defense to put some results on the board defensively. The Tigers host a really bad UCLA team in Week 4.

Actionable bet to consider: Under 56.5 points in LSU vs. UCLA (-110 on BetMGM)

Buying: Memphis has a clear path to the Group-of-5 Playoff berth

Memphis defeated Florida State 20-12 Saturday. That win isn’t exactly a résumé builder given the Noles’ 0-3 start, but it’s still a big-time victory for an AAC program. The underlying numbers back up Memphis’ performance too, particularly on defense. The Tigers held FSU to a success rate of just 38%. The Noles also posted a negative EPA-per-rush and averaged only 4.33 yards per play.

Memphis will have to hope that FSU can at least get to bowl eligibility in order to maximize this win in the eyes of the committee. But even without that, it might be more valuable than any single win that Liberty or Boise State can earn this season. Further legitimizing Memphis’ prowess, the Tigers are highest-ranked G5 team in ESPN’s SP+ update entering Week 4.

Actionable bet to consider: Memphis to make the College Football Playoff (+500 via DraftKings)

Selling: Pitt is ready to compete for an ACC title again

This brings me no joy to say, but I’m not quite on board with Pitt as an ACC contender. The Panthers have had a pair of incredible comebacks over Cincinnati and West Virginia. But there are some concerning elements to what Pitt has accomplished. For one thing, historic comebacks have been required in the final minutes of Pitt’s past 2 games.

Eli Holstein has been the hero, particularly in the WVU game with over 300 yards and 3 passing touchdowns. But Holstein owns a turnover-worthy-play rate of 5.7% per PFF, which ranks second-to-last nationally amongst quarterbacks with at least 100 drop-backs. There’s a chance Pitt grows into the offense more under Kade Bell over the course of the season and won’t keep requiring these absurd comebacks. But at some point here soon, I think Pitt’s luck will run out.

Buying: Miami is the class of the ACC — and maybe more

Almost no one in the ACC has been good to start the season. Miami is a primary exception, but the Canes haven’t just been good — they’ve been excellent. Miami enters Week 4 as the nation’s leaders in GameOnPaper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play stat. They’re also 7th in the country in net success rate (not schedule-adjusted). Miami hasn’t played anyone worthwhile since the Florida game, but it has turned in exactly the kind of performances you’d hope to see from a program that wants to contend for a Playoff berth in 2024. It’s a far cry from when this program was losing at home to Middle Tennessee.

The biggest development is that Cam Ward is living up to the hype — he’s No. 2 nationally behind only Jaxson Dart in terms of yards-per-drop-back. Miami travels to USF on Saturday before turning its attention to ACC play later this month. Miami looks like a strong bet to make the CFP for the first time.

Actionable bet to consider: Miami to make the College Football Playoff (-200 at ESPN BET)

Selling: UNLV should be ranked

UNLV has a couple of power-conference wins, which is certainly something to be proud of. Brian Odom has done a tremendous job rebuilding this program so quickly. But the Runnin’ Rebels aren’t quite to a level where they should be considered a Top-25 team, as the coaches poll deemed them to be on Sunday. Per GameOnPaper, UNLV is 60th in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play. UNLV’s advanced numbers offensively were all pretty bad vs. Kansas this past week, but it won the turnover battle 2-0. I wouldn’t adjust your Mountain West expectations based on this result.