Week 5 of the college football season is in the books — and it sure was a memorable one.

We saw arguably the best game of the season in Georgia-Alabama as well as some other wild results across the country. As with Week 4, this story will examine some advanced stats and other insights that should be helpful for anyone interested in getting an edge on the college football betting market in the weeks to come. Last week, we covered Dylan Raiola’s rise, Iowa State’s status as a Big 12 contender and more.

Here are some thoughts on 10 college football narratives after Week 5:

Buying: Indiana has a path to the Playoff

Look, I don’t think the Hoosiers are going to win the Big Ten. Michigan and Ohio State are on the schedule in November. But I do think IU has a chance to earn a College Football Playoff berth at this point, and might even fight for a top-8 seed. That would result in Bloomington hosting a Playoff game later this winter. It’s not just that Indiana has been dominant to start the year, which it has. Entering Week 6, Indiana is No. 9 nationally in GameOnPaper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play stat. It’s also that IU has a pretty manageable path to a 10-2 or 11-1 season schedule-wise. Curt Cignetti’s team gets Nebraska, Washington and Michigan at home. Northwestern, Michigan State and Purdue look like automatic wins at this juncture. That just leaves a trip to Columbus on Nov. 23 as the lone surefire loss, but a double-digit win season would likely be enough to send Indiana to the Playoff.

Selling: Colorado is a Playoff contender

Colorado earned plenty of praise following its big upset win at UCF on Saturday. Too much praise, perhaps. The numbers back up that Colorado is a good team and much-improved over a year ago. Entering Week 6, the Buffs are 25th in GameOnPaper’s adjusted EPA-per-play stat after finishing 76th in that category a year ago. But as you may recall, everyone was pretty excited about Colorado this time last year, too. The reality is that the Buffs are going to be the team that everyone else circles on their schedule — a reality that sunk their season a year ago. Their situation is even more advantageous than a year ago (better team in a worse league), but that’s going to catch up to the Buffs eventually. There’s just not enough depth. I think Colorado comfortably gets to a bowl game, but I don’t see this team as a serious contender for the Big 12 and certainly not for the CFP in 2024.

Actionable bet to consider: Indiana to make the College Football Playoff (+600 on ESPN BET)

Buying: Alabama has the best offense in the country

How could there be any other takeaway from Alabama’s instant-classic victory over Georgia on Saturday? The Crimson Tide posted an EPA-per-play in the 91st percentile, per GameOnPaper. That’s what they did against Georgia. The team that hadn’t lost a regular season game in 4 years. The Jalen Milroe/Ryan Williams combination is electric, but there’s an even more important reason Alabama’s offense should be considered the best in the game right now: Kalen DeBoer.

Over and over again, DeBoer has taken mediocre-to-good quarterbacks and maximized their skillet almost overnight. He previously did it with Michael Penix Jr. at Washington and with Jake Haener at Fresno State. DeBoer is quickly proving he belongs with the top offensive minds in this sport — both from a play-calling and overall development perspective. It’s still early, and there’s more to being the head coach at Alabama than what happens on Saturdays, but DeBoer is off to a near-perfect start.

Actionable bet to consider: Jalen Milroe to win the Heisman Trophy (+250 at DraftKings)

Selling: Miami has significant concerns after the Virginia Tech game

I don’t blame anyone for raising a red flag after Miami very nearly (and perhaps should have) lost to Virginia Tech on Friday night, but I won’t be joining anyone who does. It was a great effort from the Hokies, but this was a game that Miami largely dominated outside of 3 bad decisions by Cam Ward. That’s illustrated by a postgame win expectancy of 87.4%. The Canes were dominant on a down-to-down basis offensively (8.7 yards per play) and played pretty well on defense, too (41% success rate). For the season, Miami is still No. 2 nationally in adjusted EPA-per-play. Miami may have a slip-up at some point, but I view this game as more of an anomaly than a warning sign.

Buying: It’s time to fade Michigan

Michigan played with fire the past 2 weeks. The Wolverines have won 2 toss-ups in a row since naming Alex Orji as their starting quarterback. Per ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s postgame win expectancy formula, Michigan would have been expected to accrue about 1.2 wins over the past 2 weeks vs. USC and Minnesota. Things were especially rough offensively against the Golden Gophers as Michigan managed just a 38% success rate and a 6% explosive play rate. For context, just a week earlier, Iowa put up very comparable (and better) numbers in those categories vs. the same Minnesota defense. Pairing those performances with what happened to Washington this weekend, and I think this is an excellent spot to back the Huskies as they look for revenge for last year’s national title game at home.

Actionable bet to consider: Washington -3 vs. Michigan (-110 on bet365)

Selling: Rutgers is good

Rutgers pulled off an all-time heist job against Washington on Friday night. The Scarlet Knights got out-gained by 222 yards (including a 2.7 yards-per-play margin), didn’t force any turnovers and still won. The victory was so improbable that it earned a 3.3% postgame win expectancy from Connelly. How rare is that? It’s by far the lowest postgame win expectancy for a winning team so far in 2024, per Connelly. The next-closest is 6.7% (Arkansas’ win over Auburn in Week 4). I think Rutgers is fine, but it does not deserve to be 4-0 and I’d be interested in fading the Scarlet Knights as early as this weekend vs. Nebraska.

Actionable bet to consider: Nebraska -7 vs. Rutgers (-108 on DraftKings)

Buying: Kentucky has an elite defense

Kentucky’s offense is one thing, but its defense is very much another. The Wildcats’ stop unit had 2 signature performances during the month of September against Georgia and Ole Miss. I made the mistake of doubting the Wildcats after the UGA matchup, thinking it had more to do with Georgia’s offensive struggles than the ‘Cats’ D. No more. Kentucky made things difficult on an elite Ole Miss offense, holding the Rebels to mediocre EPA/play and success rate totals in the win. I think this is a borderline Top-25 team and that’s almost entirely due to UK’s stout defense.

Selling: Clemson’s offense is elite

Clemson’s offense is good, but it’s not one of the best in the game. That’s an important distinction to make after Clemson crushed App State, NC State and Stanford in consecutive games. Clemson is averaging 42 points per game even when you account for its 3-point showing against Georgia in the opener. But this is still a unit with a middling success rate (41%) and a scheduled-adjusted EPA-per-play that ranks 34th. Cade Klubnik has been significantly better (8.7% big-time throw rate and 12-yard ADOT) than he was a year ago, but I’m still not a big believer in this offense. Defensively, Clemson has pretty underwhelming numbers across the board. However, I’m willing to give the Tigers the benefit of the doubt because they’ve been playing a lot of backups at the end of these blowouts. But even when eliminating garbage time, Clemson’s defensive success rate is about 41% — that needs to improve in a hurry.

Buying: Duke is decent

Duke can sometimes be an easy program to ignore, but the Blue Devils are 5-0 in Year 1 under Manny Diaz. This season has gone much better than I anticipated following Mike Elko’s exit to Texas A&M. Duke has a legitimately awesome defense and an offense that has done just enough to get the job done. It’s sort of been an ACC version of Kentucky’s profile during the month of September. The result is a Duke team that is 42nd in adjusted EPA-per-play. That’s above Clemson, Oklahoma, Michigan and Texas A&M, to name a few. I don’t think Duke is that good in reality (it would likely be a big underdog to those teams on a neutral field). But it’s worth noting that the advanced stats mostly back up Duke’s 5-0 record.

Buying: South Alabama’s offense is elite

You should be paying attention to what’s going on at South Alabama. The Jaguars are only 2-3 this season, but they have one of the most exciting offenses in the entire Group-of-5. Their offense ranks 10th in GameOnPaper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play stat, a couple spots ahead of Texas. You might say, oh they only scored 10 points against LSU, they can’t be that good. Wrong. South Al posted a 50% success rate against LSU. That’s a Sun Belt team going up against an SEC defense posting a 50% success rate. Almost 6 yards per play and they had 4 explosive passing plays, too. Why bring up South Alabama this week? Because there appears to be an excellent buying opportunity on the Jaguars. They play on the road at 2-2 Arkansas State this week. The Red Wolves have been the luckiest team in the country this season, per Connelly’s postgame win expectancy formula — they’ve won 2 games off of just 0.2 expected wins across their first 4 contests.

Actionable bet to consider: South Alabama -3 vs. Arkansas State (-110 on bet365).