Week 2 is complete.

As with Week 1, this story will break down some advanced stats and other insights that should be helpful for anyone interested in betting on college football in the weeks to come. Last week, we covered Nico Iamaleava’s fast rise, Notre Dame’s still-shaky offensive line, Oklahoma’s offensive struggles and more.

Let’s dive into some prevailing narratives and see if they match up with with the underlying data says after Week 2:

Selling: Texas is the best team in the country

Texas earned a decisive 31-12 win over Michigan in Ann Arbor on Saturday, but it might not have been quite as dominant as it in real time. Michigan (44%) actually had a better success rate than Texas (40%). The difference came in a couple of key areas. The Longhorns built a 24-3 halftime lead based on 2 key factors: turnovers and 3rd-down conversions. UT went a whopping 8-of-10 on 3rd down in the first half, including multiple medium-to-long conversions. Texas also benefitted from a couple fluky turnovers in the first half while Quinn Ewers got away with at least 3 questionable throws.

Texas is elite and certainly looks the part of a top-5 team. Don’t get that twisted. But tough tests are coming in SEC play, and it would be surprising if the Longhorns continue to be as fortunate as they were on Saturday in Ann Arbor. The biggest thing UT needs to improve is its early-down success rate, which sat at just 33% against the Wolverines.

Actionable bet to consider: Texas to not go undefeated during the regular season (-425 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Buying: Michigan’s secondary is an issue

Although I’m selling Texas a bit after its loud performance in Ann Arbor, I do think Michigan has some real issues on defense. That’s to say nothing of the Wolverines’ offensive woes, which were even more pronounced against the Longhorns. But while everyone sort of expected Michigan’s offense to struggle, these defensive issues are a surprise.

Texas got loose for way too many explosive plays Saturday. The Longhorns managed a 12% explosive play rate — including 5 long passes. Texas was able to isolate defenders in Michigan’s secondary besides All-American cornerback Will Johnson to great effect. Per PFF, Texas targeted cornerback Jyaire Hill 10 times and completed 7 passes for 103 yards and 1 touchdown. Johnson was targeted just once.

Michigan’s issues aren’t all on Hill, but it does need to shore up that side of their secondary if they’re going to be as good defensively as they were last season.

Selling: Boise State is the best Group-of-5 team

Boise State pushed Oregon to the brink late Saturday night, losing 37-34. It goes in the record books as a loss, but it was certainly noted by the college football public as fans, media and handicappers seek to figure out who the best Group-of-5 team is in anticipation of College Football Playoff expansion.

Boise State’s effort was admirable on paper, but I think the numbers show that this game had more to do with Oregon than it did with the Broncos. Boise’s offense managed just a 36% success rate and had a very poor passing game with just 3.7 yards per drop-back. If not for a few explosive runs by Ashton Jeanty and some frustrating Oregon turnovers, the game never would have been this close. I’d be comfortable fading Boise State against any team with a strong rushing defense.

Boise State plays FCS Portland State in Week 3, but this is something to keep in mind for the future.

Buying: DJ Lagway is the future

DJ Lagway got the start in Gainesville as Graham Mertz was unavailable due to a concussion. It was a big moment for the former 5-star and he had no issues delivering on the big stage. He threw for 456 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 25 pass attempts in a win over Samford.

The underlying data looks even better. PFF credited Lagway with a big-time throw rate of 18.5%, which led all FBS quarterbacks this week (min. 25 drop-backs). He also didn’t have any turnover-worthy plays and posted an average depth of target of 13.3 yards.

Tougher competition is coming, yes. Lagway isn’t going to start this week, per Billy Napier. But it’s clear after 1 game that Lagway has the potential to be a superstar.

Selling: Penn State has major issues

I’m not too worried by Penn State’s performance Saturday. Yes, the Nittany Lions were losing at halftime. Yes, they only won by 7 points.

But Penn State’s offense was dominant, even accounting for competition level. Andy Kotelnicki’s offense managed a 46% success rate and a 16% explosive play rate. Drew Allar averaged over 10 yards per attempt and Penn State’s running game created 4 explosive plays on the ground.

On the other side, Bowling Green managed an explosive play rate of just 3%. The Falcons moved the ball very well in the first half, but averaged only 3 yards per play after the break. Any issues Penn State had on defense seemed to be solved by halftime. Penn State was sleep-walking a bit against Bowling Green, no doubt — but I don’t think it was as bad as the final score makes it seem. I think Penn State is still a pretty safe bet to make the Playoff.

Actionable bet to consider: Penn State to make the College Football Playoff (-220 at DraftKings)

Buying: Bowl-bound Cal

I was in on Cal being decent this year back in the preseason (relative to expectations), backing the Golden Bears to go over their win total of 5.5. After Cal beat Auburn on Saturday, things are trending up even more than I would have expected.

Cal appears to be settling in as a mediocre power-conference team, which is an upgrade over what this program has been for most of the past 15 years or so. Cal’s offense has been steady through 2 games with a 44% success rate against Auburn and UC Davis. The defense has also been slightly above-average through Week 2, posting an EPA in the 51st percentile on that side of the ball.

These are by no means elite numbers. I think Cal will be outclassed at least a couple times this year in ACC play. But they are decent numbers, and that should be enough to get Cal through to the postseason.

Selling: South Carolina is fixed

Some alarm bells were going off in Columbia after the Gamecocks nearly lost to Old Dominion in Week 1. It seems like all is well, though, following South Carolina’s 31-6 road win over Kentucky in Week 2. The advanced stats disagree with that assessment.

South Carolina’s offense posted a success rate of just 28% Saturday. That’s a horrific number — and is 12% lower than Kentucky’s success rate for this game. Field position played a huge role in South Carolina scoring 31 points — it got to that number despite averaging just over 27 yards per drive against the Wildcats.

I think South Carolina’s defense is legit, particularly its pass rush. But this is not an offense I’d have any sort of faith in as the Gamecocks progress through SEC play. Its blowout win in Lexington had way more to do with Kentucky’s offensive struggles than any sort of revival for South Carolina.

Buying: Tulane is a problem for Oklahoma

Oklahoma had a nightmare Week 2 performance against Houston, needing some late defensive magic to secure a 16-12 win over the Cougars. OU’s offense was completely shut down in this one. It managed just one full-field scoring drive and only didn’t score in the second half apart from a safety in the final minutes of the game.

Tulane is fresh off of a heartbreaking loss against Kansas State in Week 2. The Green Wave showed it has an offense that is dangerous — it averaged 10.36 yards per drop back and had an explosive play rate of 14%. Those are elite numbers, especially against a team in K-State that’s expected to contend for the Big 12 title this season.

Oklahoma is still something close to a 2-touchdown favorite on Saturday. I think the Sooners probably find a way to win. But Oklahoma’s offense was all out of sorts last week, and that’s to say nothing of its wide receiver room that’s currently missing multiple starters due to injury. Jackson Arnold, whom the Oklahoma staff chose over Dillon Gabriel for this season, is averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt this season against 2 teams that are worse than Tulane.

There’s also the elephant in the room: Josh Heupel and Tennessee are rolling into town the following week for Oklahoma’s first SEC game.

I think there are many potential outcomes for this game. I could see OU blowing out Tulane. I could see the Sooners grinding out a close win. But more often than the market is suggesting, I think Tulane could come into Norman and leave with a victory.

Actionable bet to consider: Tulane +450 (via ESPN BET)

Selling: North Carolina’s offense has a chance to survive in the ACC

North Carolina scored 38 against Charlotte this weekend, an admirable effort after it lost quarterback Max Johnson to a season-ending injury in Week 1. But there are some pretty significant red flags.

For one thing, through 2 games, UNC has an offensive success rate of just 32.8%. That’s the 5th-worst mark in the country. Their rushing success rate is 33.3%, which ranks 115th. This offense has survived thanks to some explosive plays (as you’d expect with Omarion Hampton in the backfield), but I’m pretty worried about those chunk plays drying up once the Tar Heels get to ACC play. Especially if Carolina isn’t able to use the pass as a credible threat to open up its run game.

Buying: Arkansas’ offense is good

Arkansas played well enough to beat Oklahoma State. ESPN’s Bill Connelly shows a postgame win expectancy of just 13.8% for the Cowboys in that game. On one hand, it’s a major missed opportunity for Sam Pittman to earn some job security with a strong nonconference win.

On the other hand, Arkansas showed the kind of viability we needed to see on offense to think this team could be competitive in the SEC this fall. The Hogs had a 46% success rate and an 8% explosive play rate in Stillwater. Taylen Green averaged 9.2 yards per attempt and Ja’Quinden Jackson looked like one of the best running backs in the SEC.

Turnovers are what cost Arkansas the win against Oklahoma State. And that’s certainly an issue that could continue in SEC play, but I’m more optimistic about Arkansas’ season than I was heading into Week 2.