2022 NCAA Tournament: Predicting the Big Ten's Thursday games
Last year was an abject disaster for the Big Ten.
Despite have a pair of No. 1 seeds and the entire NCAA Tournament in the Big Ten’s back yard of Indiana — or maybe it’s the front yard — no team from the conference reached the Final Four. Only 1 even got so far as the Sweet 16.
There’s a chance for redemption in 2022.
The Big Ten led all conferences with 9 entrants in this year’s Tournament. Unfortunately, one of them is already gone after Rutgers fell to Notre Dame in a double-overtime First Four classic that carried into Thursday morning.
The remaining 8 must carry the B1G mantle the rest of the way.
As a result of the Big Ten’s depth, none of those teams are seeded near the top. Wisconsin and Purdue were dubbed the top teams in the Big Ten by the selection committee, each earning 3-seeds.
With the Round of 64 upon us, the time has come to learn whether the Big Ten is on a march to redemption, or on the verge of laying another B1G egg.
Here’s a look at the 3 Thursday games where Big Ten teams are in action.
South Region
No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 6 Colorado State
When: 12:15 p.m. ET
Where: Indianapolis
Michigan top players: C Hunter Dickinson (18.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg), G Eli Brooks (12.3 ppg, 38.9% 3-pointers)
Colorado State top players: F David Roddy (19.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg), G Isaiah Stevens (14.9 ppg, 4.8 apg)
Keys to the game
This sounds overly simplistic, but this game comes down to whether Colorado State makes its shots.
The Rams are 10th nationally in 2-point shooting percentage and 19th in free-throw percentage. But they can’t grab an offensive board for their lives. Colorado State is 340th in offensive rebounding, whereas Michigan is 35th on the defensive glass.
There will be precious few second-chance points for the Rams, so they better make the first chances count.
Prediction: Colorado State 68, Michigan 63
I liked the Wolverines to pull the upset when the brackets were released, but circumstances changed. Michigan is without point guard DeVante Jones, who received a concussion after taking an elbow to the head in practice.
States: MD, MA, OH, NY, AZ, MI, KS, KY, TN, PA, NJ, VA, CO, IL, MI, WV, IA, WY, IN
Jones will be replaced by freshman Frankie Collins, who typically only plays about 20% of the time and has never scored in double figures. Colorado State is too good for an injury like that not to play a factor.
Midwest Region
No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Richmond
When: 3:10 p.m.
Where: Buffalo
Iowa top players: F Keegan Murray (23.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg), G Jordan Bohannon (11.1 ppg, 38.5% 3-point shooting)
Richmond top players: F Tyler Burton (16.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg), F Grant Golden (14.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg)
Keys to the game
Richmond has to slow this game down or it has no chance. Statistically speaking, there isn’t an area where the Spiders have an edge. Their best trait is ball security, ranking 9th nationally in turnover percentage. But Iowa is even better in that department, ranking 3rd.
Prediction: Iowa 79, Richmond 64
The Spiders are the weakest 12-seed in this field, making the Tournament after a Cinderella run through the Atlantic 10 Tourney as the 6-seed. The red-hot Hawks should continue rolling.
East Region
No. 12 Indiana vs. No. 5 Saint Mary’s
When: 7:20 p.m.
Where: Portland, Ore.
Indiana top players: C Trayce Jackson-Davis (18.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg), G Xavier Johnson (12.2 ppg, 5.1 apg)
Saint Mary’s top players: C Matthias Tass (12.6 ppg, 6 rpg), G Tommy Kuhse (12 ppg, 3.6 apg)
Keys to the game
According to KenPom.com, Saint Mary’s has the 9th-most efficient defense in the country. That looms as a potentially disastrous development for Indiana’s frequently misfiring offense.
But there’s a glimmer of hope for the Hoosiers.
The Gaels are pretty average when it comes to limiting opposing shooting percentages. Their dominance comes from being ranked 4th nationally in defensive rebounding. Race Thompson, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jordan Geronimo are all capable offensive rebounders.
States: AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, MD, KY, NC, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY
The battle on the boards will go a long way in determining the winner.
Prediction: Indiana 64, Saint Mary’s 63
Indiana’s only loss this postseason came when Iowa’s Jordan Bohannon banked home a prayer from nearly 40 feet in the Big Ten semifinals. And that’s the only game the Hawkeyes have come close to losing to all month with the exception of the regular-season finale at Illinois.
The Hoosiers are locking teams down defensively, and the Gaels don’t have a powerful enough offense to overwhelm that defense. Indiana will probably have to survive some extended stretches without scoring to pull this off, but I think it will get the job done.
