I’m humble enough to admit when I’m wrong.

I mean, I have to be. I’m wrong so much that if I never admitted when I was wrong, I’d basically never talk about any predictions I made.

Some preseason predictions were more obvious than others — Ohio State and Wisconsin will win their respective divisions, Michigan will be improved offensively with Shea Patterson, etc.

But with 4 weeks in the books, I feel like there are already some things that I can admit I whiffed on:

1. Nebraska will make the postseason in Year 1 of the Scott Frost era

I may or may not have predicted the following set of realistic expectations for Frost’s first year back in Lincoln:

  • QB completes 65 percent of passes for 8.5 yards per attempt
  • Top 40 offense in FBS
  • 6-6 w/ 7-5 or 8-4 ceiling

I actually stand by those predictions as fair ones to make. I don’t think I expected too much of the Huskers because of the schedule and the roster that Mike Riley left.

But yeah, I’m punting on the postseason prediction for a variety of reasons.

Part of that is the quarterback situation. One of the reasons that true freshmen aren’t often starters is because they don’t have the experience in the strength and conditioning program to handle the beating they take, especially running an RPO system like Frost’s. That’s not a knock on Adrian Martinez, who has shown flashes of being a special player when healthy.

The problem is that when a walk-on is the first line of defense, the floor is low. We saw that play out in Nebraska’s 0-3 start, which was the program’s worst opening mark since 1945.

The Huskers will get better offensively, but ranking No. 117 in FBS suggests that a top-40 offense won’t happen, which doesn’t bode well for how Frost’s defenses have performed at their best. The schedule only gets tougher, too.

Now, I think this looks much more like a 3-win team.

2. Purdue is a top-7 team in the B1G…with Elijah Sindelar

In my preseason B1G Power Rankings, I was sipping the Purdue Kool Aid. Big time. I didn’t care that the Boilers ranked No. 125 in FBS in returning defensive production. I thought Nick Holt would have that unit still playing like one of the B1G’s better groups.

Sports Betting in Big Ten Country

There is big news coming to the upcoming 2022-23 Big Ten football season (and NFL season). Ohio online sports betting and Maryland sports betting are on the way.

21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

The defense hasn’t been a total disaster — No. 73 in scoring defense is better than the Darrell Hazell days — but it had plenty of frustrating moments. Mainly not getting a late stop to beat Eastern Michigan at home.

Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

But I was sipping the Purdue Kool Aid more because I was a big Sindelar believer. I even wrote why he could be a wild card candidate to end the B1G’s first round quarterback drought. I enjoyed talking to him at B1G Media Days and I’m sure like many, I loved the fact that the DUDE WON A BOWL GAME ON A TORN ACL.

Sindelar’s play instead took a step back. Three first-half turnovers in his 2018 debut probably didn’t help. He’s since been replaced by David Blough during Purdue’s 1-3 start.

Sure, Purdue is coming off easily its best game of the season in a win over ranked Boston College. But 3 home losses in September wasn’t the way Boiler fans — and myself — envisioned Year 2 of the Jeff Brohm era starting.

3. Penn State’s offense will take a significant step back without Joe Moorhead

I still think that the Lions could be in store for some regression once they start facing better teams. But yeah, I’ll admit that this preseason prediction isn’t looking so hot. After all, Penn State boasts the No. 1 offense in America.

In my defense, I didn’t buy the notion that the Lions would be better in their first Moorhead-less year. Add to the fact that they lost the likes of Saquon Barkley, DaeSean Hamilton and Mike Gesicki, and no, I wasn’t all in on Penn State getting better on that side of the ball.

That was the case despite the fact that I argued why Trace McSorley was the best quarterback in America heading into 2018, and that Miles Sanders was ready for the spotlight. Both of those things have proven to be true. What I underestimated was just how good K.J. Hamler was going to be. The dude is averaging 17 yards per touch, and a score every 3 touches.

He and Ricky Slade are emerging stars in this offense, which has been in good hands under Ricky Rahne so far. Will it continue this torrid pace and average 50-plus points the rest of the way? I doubt it.

But will my preseason prediction that PSU’s offense is in for a step back continue to look foolish? Probably.

4. Michigan will dominate Notre Dame and immediately look Playoff-ready

I normally don’t go out on a limb before a game and write an entire column about why one team will dominate the other. For whatever reason, I felt inclined to do that before the huge headliner to open the season in South Bend.

Bad, bad idea to tweet this out.

Michigan’s defense got punched in the mouth early while the offense looked predictable and efficient for most of the night. The fact that it ended as a one-score game was a credit to the Wolverines’ defensive adjustments, but it wasn’t necessarily because Shea Patterson and Jim Harbaugh were perfectly in sync as I expected them to be.

Instead of Playoff buzz, Harbaugh of course got the “overrated” crowd chirping. That is what happens every time Harbaugh loses a game to a good team.

The Wolverines were dismissed by many following the disappointing Week 1 showing. But all they’ve done since then is outscore three teams 150-33.

Michigan actually ranks No. 23 in scoring offense despite the dud in South Bend. And despite the assumption that this was “still the same old ineffective passing game,” the Wolverines already have as many passing touchdowns (9) as they did all of last year.

I can admit that I was wrong about the opener, but I’m not selling my Michigan stock like others.

5. I have more confidence in Wisconsin than Ohio State

Eeeeeeeeeek. I realize that these teams could still meet in the B1G Championship to decide that but eeeeeeeeeeek.

I wrote this in February so it wasn’t some Urban Meyer-suspension related take that I decided to fire off. I said that because when Wisconsin’s entire offensive line returned, I liked the chances of the Badgers imposing their will and dominating their way to a B1G West title. They could still do that, but as for whether Wisconsin looks like the B1G’s best team, I have serious doubts about that.

It probably wasn’t a good sign that I wrote after Week 2 why I was having second thoughts about Wisconsin. It concerned me that Paul Chryst said he felt like every one of Jonathan Taylor’s 33 carries against New Mexico were meaningful. The Badgers shouldn’t have needed 51 carries from Taylor to beat a pair of Group of 5 teams at home.

And as fate would have it, Wisconsin was ripe for an upset against BYU.

I’ll give Wisconsin credit, though. That was a huge response with the season on the line at Iowa last week. Alex Hornibrook delivered perhaps one of the most important drives of his career to at least keep the Badgers in control in the West.

Does it still worry me that a Wisconsin passing game that I assumed would improve is ranked just No. 92 in FBS? Definitely. Hornibrook has to become more consistent in order for Wisconsin to run the table and even have a chance at the Playoff. Will I have a lot more confidence in the Badgers if they can establish some balance like they did late against Iowa? For sure.

Still, though. I think the teams playing in Happy Valley on Saturday night have done a lot more to earn my trust than Wisconsin.