B1G 5: The end is near for Kirk Ferentz. It's only a matter of when

1. The big reality in Iowa City

There’s only one way out now, and it looks like a harrowing, desolate road to the inevitable with each passing day.

Change is coming to Iowa football. Deep, gut-wrenching, soul-sapping change.

The end is never easy in the coaching business, especially when you’ve become as much a part of the university and community and those glorious fall Saturdays as Kirk Ferentz has.

The end in Iowa City began with an offseason of turmoil that shook to the core a program that Ferentz has dutifully led for two decades. You can’t walk away from allegations of racial strife, bullying and discrimination without fissures that become open wounds that evolve into full-blown infections soiling everything that means anything.

That final step arrives, that moment where it becomes an untenable situation, by losing games on the field. Winning shrouds problems; losing exacerbates every imperfection on and off the field.

Iowa is 0-2 for the first time since 2000, but the Hawkeyes haven’t lost to Ohio State or Michigan or Wisconsin. Iowa lost to those noted Big Ten heavyweights Purdue and Northwestern.

By losing to two West Division rivals, a talented Iowa team that could’ve won the division and played in the Big Ten Championship Game now almost certainly will not.

Within hours of the second loss, star wideout Ihmir Smith-Marsette was charged with drunken driving, adding more distraction to an already overflowing plate. Smith-Marsette isn’t just one of the Big Ten’s best players, he’s one of Iowa’s team leaders – saying after the Northwestern loss that the Hawkeyes need to take “an honest evaluation” of themselves during this week of practice. Smith-Marsette has been suspended and will miss this week’s game against Michigan State.

That distraction comes on the heels of another that arrived 2 weeks ago, when 8 former players sued the university and asked for $20 million and the firings of Ferentz, his son and offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz and athletic director Gary Barta.

Unless Iowa wins out, the negative train will not stop. It will be at the forefront, it will be the talk of every pregame and postgame, it will be dissected after every win and loss from every possible angle.

Players will constantly be bombarded with questions about the pressure of playing for Ferentz’s job. Ferentz will be asked about how his job status affects recruiting.

And on and on and on.

This is the life of a typical coach on the hot seat, one who’s losing games he shouldn’t and losing control of the season. Much less, a coach who’s staring at months of offseason turmoil he did his best to fix, and now a $20 million lawsuit aimed at his university because of those problems.

A university that’s bleeding millions, like all others, because of the COVID impact on collegiate sports.

As much as Ferentz is Iowa football, the separation will be much easier (financially) for the university than it would’ve been prior to this offseason.

According to USA Today’s database of college coaches contracts, Ferentz is No. 19 in the nation is salary, earning $4.9 million a year. Iowa’s buyout as of December 2020 is $20.7 million.

But here’s the key: If Iowa fires Ferentz for cause, it owes him nothing. Clearly after what has transpired over the offseason, after Iowa paid for a detailed 7-week investigation by the law firm of Husch Blackwell that confirmed some of the claims of former players, Iowa can terminate with cause.

Iowa fired longtime strength coach/executive director of football Chris Doyle but kept Ferentz and his son, Brian. All three were implicated in the offseason of shame.

If Iowa wanted to fire Ferentz, it would’ve done so before the season and it would have been hard to question the move.

My guess is the university wanted to give Ferentz the opportunity to right the ship, rebuild trust and go out on his own terms at the end of the season. By all accounts, Ferentz has done a strong job in reaching out to current and former players, getting their input and – here’s the key – implementing that input to spark significant change in and outside the football facility.

But now things are changing. Now the losing has begun, and the first new fissure has formed in the locker room with the arrest of Smith-Marsette.

The losing means it will be more difficult to keep players zeroed in on following protocols to avoid COVID breakouts and the loss of games. The greatest fear this season of every coach in college football is players checking out (and adding risk to an already strenuous situation) after the season looks lost.

Suddenly surging Michigan State arrives in Iowa City this weekend, and another loss brings the inevitable one step closer. A win, at this point, looks to be simply delaying it.

Change is coming to Iowa football. It’s only a matter of when.

Where it ends, Part II

If and when Ferentz leaves Iowa, where does the university turn for his replacement?

Start here: Iowa has had 2 coaches (Hayden Fry and Ferentz) since 1979. That’s 41 years.

Whoever they hire, he will be a coach the university expects to stay and build for an extended period of time. Forget about young coaches using the program as a springboard to a bigger Power 5 job.

Ferentz had hoped that his son, Brian, would be a natural successor. But with Brian Ferentz’s connections to the problems revealed this offseason, that doesn’t look like a real possibility.

At the top of the list of who is: Iowa alum and Kentucky coach Mark Stoops, and Iowa alum and New York Giants assistant coach Bret Bielema.

Both played under Fry and would be coaches who would stay an extended time and build. Both have had success at the Power 5 level.

One NFL scout told me last week that Bielema has “improved his résumé in this league. He’s a guy that a few teams are looking at right now. He will be a head coach again, NFL or college.”

Stoops has stayed at Kentucky because he’s paid well ($5 million) and expectations aren’t what they typically are for SEC schools. What program does that sound like?

3. The Harbs Question

Michigan loses another game to Michigan State, and the idea of the Wolverines finally winning the Big Ten under Harbaugh is farther on the horizon than maybe ever.

But understand this: No matter what happens at Michigan, Harbaugh is still a hot commodity in the NFL. He could flame out in Year 6 at Michigan – at this point, would it really surprise anyone? – and still get a plum job in the NFL.

Industry insiders I’ve spoken to have said this for the last 3 years: Michigan has an out with Harbaugh, and Harbaugh has a way to save face with the NFL.

The NFL places high value on coaches who not only win games in the league but win playoff games. Harbaugh did both at San Francisco.

“He has a reputation as a winner,” an NFL scout told me. “He may not be the easiest guy to get along with, but when you’re here and it’s your job, it’s not unlike any other job. You get along to go along, especially if it means winning games.”

Look, it’s way too early this season to jump ship on Michigan (QB Joe Milton will get better), even though Ohio State looks as good as last year’s team that lost in the College Football Playoff semifinals. Harbaugh, like it or not, will be judged by what he does against Ohio State.

4. Powered Up

This week’s power poll – and one big thing.

1. Ohio State: The goal for the remainder of the season against the easiest schedule of any CFP contender: stay focused, stay healthy.

2. Wisconsin: Just how significantly has COVID impacted the 2-deep is the real question. Badgers coach Paul Chryst will get QB Danny Vanden Boom ready to play, but does he have enough around him to pull it off?

3. Indiana: At some point, we better start believing in the Hoosiers, who aren’t exactly the prettiest product – but are strong defensively and keep stacking wins. The better QB Michael Penix Jr. plays, the farther this team goes.

4. Penn State: Don’t give up on the Lions just yet. The defense won’t be stressed again like it was against Ohio State, but Penn State needs help on the outside around QB Sean Clifford.

5. Northwestern: There’s not much heavy lifting on the schedule, and 1 of the 2 games (Nebraska, Wisconsin) is this week in Evanston. This defense is the best coach Pat Fitzgerald has had since 2018, when the Wildcats played in the Big Ten Championship Game.

6. Purdue: The highlights of QB Aidan O’Connell to WR David Bell get the headlines, the running of TB Zander Horvath (231 yards, 5.4 ypc.) is the foundation of an underrated offense.

7. Michigan State: Those 7 turnovers in the loss to Rutgers are unthinkable. But consider this: Without that drastic loss, the Spartans maybe aren’t zeroed in on playing rival Michigan. And a signature win for new coach Mel Tucker might not have happened.

8. Michigan: Brutal. There’s no other way to explain how Michigan played against Michigan State in a game it should’ve been pumped to win. That’s on the coaching staff; that’s a direct reflection of the guy getting paid $8 million a year.

9. Nebraska: Maybe that loss to Ohio State wasn’t as bad as it looked. There’s a place for both Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey in Scott Frost’s offense. The problem is finding the right balance.

10. Iowa: The Hawkeyes have a championship-caliber defense that has worn down in the second half of both losses. Ball security was the biggest question with QB Spencer Petras, and he already has 3 INTs

11. Maryland: The jump made by Maryland – and specifically QB Taulia Tagovailoa – from Week 1 to Week 2 was remarkable. Tagovailoa, who had 5 TDs in win over Minnesota, averaged 11.3 yards per attempt against the Gophers – after 3.8 ypa in a loss to Northwestern.

12. Rutgers: It’s not like we didn’t know Rutgers would come back to normal, but here’s the key: the loss to a good Indiana team was respectable. That’s 2 straight games to begin the second Greg Schiano era where Rutgers showed fight. A big step.

13. Minnesota: The losses on defense were greater than expected. The regression of QB Tanner Morgan was not. He’s clearly not the same player he was last year and he needs a big game this weekend against Illinois to avoid a disastrous 0-3 start.

14. Illinois: The Minnesota game might be the most intriguing of the week in the Big Ten. An 0-3 start for Illinois will gut the momentum coach Lovie Smith built from last season.

5. The Weekly 5

Five picks against the spread.

• Michigan at Indiana (+3)
• Maryland (+25) at Penn State
• Minnesota (-7) at Illinois
• Michigan State (+7) at Iowa
• Purdue (+8) at Wisconsin

Last week: 2-3
Season: 3-7