B1G bubble watch: Rutgers moving up, Indiana going down, Michigan treading water

In the rough-and-tumble 2022 Big Ten, a lot can change in a week.

For 3 teams in particular — Indiana, Rutgers and Michigan — it feels like the whole trajectory of their seasons have reversed course in that timeframe.

Saturday was crucial for all 3 in their hunt for the NCAA tournament. The respective outcomes felt like potential inflection points for each of their seasons.

Hoosiers hurtling the wrong way

Indiana, once comfortably inside the NCAA tournament field, is getting sucked into the bubble’s gravitational pull. The Hoosiers have lost 3 in a row after a 76-61 dud at Michigan State on Saturday afternoon. IU is now a very bubbly 7-7 in conference play.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t promise to get better soon, because every loss has exposed the same issue. The Hoosiers shoot like Star Wars storm troopers. In all 3 losses, Indiana shot below 36% from the field.

Even going back to its most recent win, Indiana has averaged less than a point per possession in 4 consecutive games. The Hoosiers are 12th in the B1G in offensive efficiency and 13th in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom.com.

Right now the only silver lining for Indiana is that Minnesota and Maryland are still on the schedule, and neither is particularly concerned with the finer points of defending. But if those are the only 2 wins the Hoosiers are capable of picking up, they’ll be on the precipice of falling out of the picture at the start of the Big Ten tournament.

Indiana is just 2-6 against Quad 1 opponents.

Mike Woodson understandably went soft in the non-conference schedule as he tried to build a previously bad team’s confidence in Year 1. But given the recent slide, upcoming Quad 1 opportunities against Ohio State and Wisconsin are suddenly very big for IU.

Red-hot Rutgers rocketing towards tourney

Way back when Indiana looked well on its way to its first NCAA tournament bid since 2016, Rutgers seemed in need of a miracle to get there.

Not so much. The Scarlet Knights just needed wins.

Rutgers now has 3 in a row, all against ranked opponents — a first in program history.

None of them were more important than Saturday’s win at Wisconsin, which made for Rutgers’ first Quad 1 road victory this season. The Scarlet Knights finally showed that they are more than a Jersey Mike’s Arena wonder — kind of a big deal when you’re attempting to qualify for a tournament played entirely on neutral courts.

Overall, Rutgers is now an impressive 6-3 against Quad 1 teams.

The Scarlet Knights remain saddled by 3 rough non-conference losses to DePaul, Lafayette and UMass. DePaul nearly provided Rutgers with an unexpected boost at No. 11 Providence on Saturday night, but lost to the Friars in overtime. A win would have moved Blue Demons from Quad 3 to Quad 2 in the NCAA NET rankings, taking the sting out of that defeat for Rutgers.

Nice as that would have been, the Scarlet Knights have plenty of chances ahead to help themselves.

If Rutgers can just finish out the season with a .500 record over its last 6 games, it will go into the Big Ten tourney at 18-12 overall and 12-8 in league play. That could very well be enough by itself. With an extra win in Indianapolis thrown on top, there would be no justification for keeping the Scarlet Knights out of the Big Dance.

Michigan’s March remains murky

For those who left the room at any point during Saturday night’s Ohio State-Michigan game, the ESPN crew of Jason Benetti and Robbie Hummel provided multiple helpful reminders that the Wolverines would move into bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s “Last Four Teams In” with a win over the Buckeyes.

Naturally, that’s not how things worked out. Ohio State kept itself afloat in the Big Ten title race with a 68-57 win.

As for Michigan, there’s no telling where things will end up. A letdown was perhaps inevitable after Thursday night’s blowout win over Purdue, which in turn came just 2 days after a 1-point road win at Penn State.

Next week, the Wolverines once again have to make it through 3 games. Fortunately, they’ll get 2 days between those games rather than just 1. Unfortunately, none of them are sure wins.

Michigan travels to Iowa and Wisconsin before hosting the now resurgent Scarlet Knights. For obvious reasons, the stakes of the Rutgers-Michigan matchup could be huge for both teams.

Given the remaining schedules, the bubble is unlikely to have enough room for the Hoosiers, Wolverines and Scarlet Knights to all make the cut. Any game where members of that trio can help themselves while harming 1 of the others is on obvious pivot point.