B1G debate: Does the SEC or Big Ten have the better chance at getting 2 teams in the Playoff?

Editor’s note: Ryan O’Gara and Connor O’Gara grew up following sports in suburban Chicago. The brothers, separated by 20 months, debated about their favorite teams and players so often that their father would often have to remind them, “This isn’t PTI.” Each Friday, they’re bringing that debate to you, centered around the Big Ten and college football as a whole.

This week’s debate: Does the SEC or Big Ten have the better 2-team Playoff bid?

RYAN: This is a special edition of the B1G debate, because instead of sending emails back and forth across the country, we are sitting in the same room and arguing our points in person. Connor is in town to see Kentucky and LSU in Lexington.

The Big Ten is in an unusual spot. In a sport that always seems so top-heavy, the B1G has 5 teams with a realistic path to the College Football Playoff. Those 5 all are ranked in the top 11 of the AP poll (the SEC only has 2, the Big 12 and Pac-12 have 1 and the ACC doesn’t have any). Granted, 4 of those are in the same division, so this won’t last, but so far, the Big Ten has to like its position. The only better outcome would’ve involved Ohio State beating Oregon and Indiana beating Cincinnati, because I think the Bearcats are going to be a problem come CFP time for some Power 5 team.

Speaking of that, this is shaping up to be a year when there are only 2 Power 5 conferences in the CFP. If Cincinnati does run the table, I think the Bearcats have a good chance at getting in (nice prediction on that one, by the way). The ACC is basically drawing dead with Clemson, North Carolina and Miami all flopping. The Pac-12 is down to Oregon running the table, which seems unlikely. Oklahoma hasn’t been impressive at all, and Texas could have trouble getting in with the lopsided loss to Arkansas.

That’s a long-winded way of saying, I think the SEC and Big Ten are both positioned well as we near the halfway point of this season. Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, but as it stands right now, the Big Ten has the better 2-team bid simply because it has more options.

The B1G has 5 teams (Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State) that have a legitimate opportunity to build a strong-enough resume. Its options are open. In contrast, the SEC has all of its eggs in the Alabama and Georgia baskets. (Kentucky is a great story and full disclosure, I live in Lexington and root for the Wildcats, but I’m not putting UK in that group after just 1 good win.) I love what Arkansas has done, but losing 37-0 basically eliminates the Hogs from CFP contention. Ditto for Ole Miss, which was not even close against Alabama. Think about how that 1 blowout loss affected Texas A&M last year.

Granted, I’d take Alabama and Georgia individually over any B1G team right now, but there is power in numbers. That’s the B1G’s advantage at this point in the season. As the season goes on, it’ll have to have 2 strong contenders emerge from this group of 5.

CONNOR: Full disclosure here. This is a much better debate to have (basically) in-person than last week’s debate about whether or not the SEC had 6 quarterbacks better than the B1G’s best.

(Ryan already asked me if I thought Stetson Bennett IV would be the B1G’s best quarterback. Is it sad that I thought about it for 2 seconds before realizing he was poking fun?)

I really think the B1G has positioned itself nicely here. The fact that Iowa and Penn State are playing as top-5 teams, which hasn’t happened in a B1G game without Ohio State since 1997, is a massive win. Even though College GameDay isn’t going to be there, this is exactly what the conference needed to shed the belief that it’s the Buckeyes and everyone else. College football narratives don’t die quickly, and if there’s ever a narrative the B1G needs killed, it’s that one.

But this is a quantity vs. quality argument. Right now, there’s really not much of a debate as to who the top 2 teams in the country are. Penn State or Iowa could roll on Saturday, and that belief really wouldn’t change.

That’s because team No. 1 and team No. 1A are in the SEC. Right now, the SEC’s third-most likely team to win the league is sitting there at +5000. I bring that up because that shows how clear the path is for Alabama AND Georgia to get to Atlanta without a loss. If that happens — and both teams likely are set to be double-digit favorites for the rest of the schedule — shut it down. Those bids will be locked up before the Pac-12 Championship is played in front of a few dozen people on a Friday afternoon.

The problem for the B1G is that sooner or later, just as occurred in the SEC, those remaining unbeatens will dwindle. Penn State still has to face Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State. Oh, and Ohio State is still there. Even if the Lions roll through that schedule, they’re gonna knock teams off one-by-one. That’s great for the Lions’ résumé, but bad for the rest of the whole “2-team bid” argument.

The only way this happens is if an unbeaten Iowa team faces a 1-loss East team. I assume that’ll be the case considering that they’ll likely beat up on each other and Ohio State already has the Oregon loss. Then we’re also assuming that an unbeaten Iowa team would be able to survive a B1G Championship loss, when clearly, the selection committee doesn’t respect the B1G West (can you blame them?).

It’s early, but this comes down to a simple question: Is it more likely that Alabama/Georgia lose a regular season game as double-digit favorites or that the exact right scenario breaks for an unbeaten Iowa team to lose in the B1G Championship and still make the field? Give me the former.

RYAN: While Alabama and Georgia are the 2 best teams in the country, they aren’t unbeatable, despite what the odds say. I think there is an aura of invincibility after both looked, well, invincible against ranked teams last week. But both have played close games. Georgia beating Clemson on a pick-6 felt great at the time, but we now know that Clemson is an average team this season. Alabama went down to the wire at Florida — the same team that just lost to Kentucky despite giving up only 224 yards.

Alabama seems machine-like, but this isn’t quite the same explosive offense as in past years with Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. The Tide just don’t have the same weapons without those 4 first-round wideouts over the last 2 years and an all-time great running back also going in the first round. Their best wideout is a guy who wasn’t even going to start for Ohio State.

Georgia is loaded as usual, but QB is a major concern. JT Daniels has basically played 2 games this season as he deals with a lat injury, and it hasn’t mattered so far. So are you counting on Stetson Bennett to lead the Dawgs to an unbeaten regular season? They had some bad offensive games last year.

Again, would I pick either of those guys to lose each week? No. But with 7 regular-season games left, a lot can happen. Each has their big rivalry game left (Alabama plays at Auburn this season, and Georgia still has Florida in Jacksonville).

I just think that with the Big Ten getting off to this sort of start, with 5 teams in the top 11 and them all playing each other, that leads to more value being placed in whichever team wins. If they can avoid losing to anyone except each other, that bodes well for whichever 2-3 teams emerge.

Take Penn State, for example. If the Nittany Lions win at Iowa this weekend, I think they would be in the CFP conversation without winning the Big Ten Championship. Let’s say Ohio State wins out and Penn State’s only loss is a close one to the Buckeyes, it would have a very good resume with potentially 5 top-25 wins. The best thing Penn State has going for it is that it has a legit non-conference win over an Auburn squad that is actually ranked higher now (18th) than when they played (22nd).

CONNOR: Here’s a fair question, though. Would a team that doesn’t reach a conference championship make it ahead of an unbeaten Cincinnati? And also, what about the odds that a non-Ohio State/Alabama team can miss a conference title game and make the Playoff? Not to get into the whole “big brand” thing, but that’d be an odd way to make the Playoff for the first time if you’re Penn State.

Let’s be honest here. You’re right that the best chance for an Alabama or Georgia loss is whether a quarterback can recover from a nagging lat injury. Is it weird? Sure. But I’ll bet on Daniels getting right, especially with how conservative Georgia has been with him. If anything, his return would add to the narrative that we haven’t even seen the best of Georgia yet. I’ll just say it now. Georgia ain’t losing to Florida and Alabama ain’t losing to Auburn. Rivalry games or not, those will be 2-touchdown spreads. Georgia’s defense isn’t built for a 2019 South Carolina relapse, and it’s a different offensive system, so I don’t see that type of letdown happening. Alabama, on the other hand, hasn’t lost to a non-top 15 team since 2010.

But hey, it’s 2021. Let’s get weird. Can we possibly parlay 2 SEC teams vs. 2 B1G teams in the Playoff?

Ah, never mind. That’s not part of The Alliance.