B1G debate: Is the Big Ten East or the SEC West the best division in college football?
Editor’s note: Ryan O’Gara and Connor O’Gara grew up following sports in suburban Chicago. The brothers, separated by 20 months, debated about their favorite teams and players so often that their father would often have to remind them, “This isn’t PTI.” Each Friday, they’re bringing that debate to you, centered around the Big Ten and college football as a whole.
This week’s debate: Is the Big Ten East or the SEC West the best division in college football?
RYAN: I thought for a moment that we should revisit last week’s debate in which you argued that the SEC had the better 2-team Playoff potential than the Big Ten. After that Alabama loss to unranked Texas A&M, there is still a pathway to that, but the odds went down significantly. The Big Ten, meanwhile, still has 5 teams in the top 10 and now looks like the better bet to get 2 teams in.
The Big Ten and SEC are constructed similarly right now. There is a great team in one division (Iowa and Georgia) and the other really good teams are all in the other division, the Big Ten East and the SEC West. It struck me today that if Kentucky lost a close game at Georgia this weekend and won out to finish 11-1, that probably isn’t enough to get into the CFP because the Wildcats will have only beaten 1 potential top-25 team (Florida). And if Iowa were to lose in the Big Ten Championship Game and finish with 1 loss, I don’t know if the Hawkeyes are getting in either. The B1G West just isn’t strong enough.
Anyways, that brings us to the question: Is the B1G East or the SEC West the superior division? In my opinion, it’s the B1G East.
The B1G East currently has 4 top-10 teams. Ohio State is always a threat to win it all and has kicked it into high gear, Penn State is a Sean Clifford injury away from being ranked No. 2 in the country, and Michigan and Michigan State have surprised a lot of folks, including me, by winning their first 6 games (and looking pretty good in doing so). The other 3 teams in this division are not pushovers, either. Indiana finished last season in the Top 25 and started this season ranked, as well. And while this season hasn’t gone as planned, the Hoosiers did lead CFP contender Cincinnati in the fourth quarter. Maryland and Rutgers both went undefeated in non-conference play, with each picking up a win over a Power 5 opponent. That’s all you can ask for from your lower-tier teams.
I don’t believe any of these teams individually is better than Alabama, but collectively, I’ll take this group over the SEC West. That’s an exciting division with some big personalities, but the teams are just wildly inconsistent. Arkansas and Ole Miss have both suffered blowout losses, Texas A&M has looked terrible at points and LSU is a mess. And Auburn provides the one data point we have to compare these teams, as it lost at Penn State.
Both the B1G East and SEC West are great, but how can you argue against a division with 4 top-10 teams?
CONNOR: This is a great topic that I think will have a lot of twists and turns throughout the regular season, much like the 2-team Playoff bid debate.
(I actually wouldn’t sell the possibility of that in the SEC because if 1-loss Alabama beats a 12-0 Georgia team, that’s what we’re looking at. I don’t think a 12-0 Iowa team would get that same benefit of the doubt. But we’ll save that discussion for another time.)
Sports Betting in Big Ten Country
There is big news coming to the upcoming 2022-23 Big Ten football season (and NFL season). Ohio online sports betting and Maryland sports betting are on the way.
21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Ok, so let’s agree that Alabama would beat any B1G East team at a neutral site. If that’s true, then what does it mean that Texas A&M, who was the worst team in the West entering the week, just beat the No. 1 team in the country? I think the depth is there. Meanwhile, Maryland got run off the field by Iowa and Ohio State, while Rutgers just lost blowouts in consecutive home games against elite East foes.
LSU is indeed the worst team in the SEC West. It’s also 1 of 6 West teams that have been among the top 25 teams at some point this year. MSU is the lone team that hasn’t been ranked yet, and Mike Leach’s squad is fifth in receiving votes. Auburn is also in that group, which means that 6 of the West’s 7 teams — that’s everyone but LSU — is ranked in the top 30 nationally. Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers aren’t in that group.
I’ll give you the fact that the East has 4 teams in the top 10, and yes, Penn State is better than Auburn … a team I projected to finish last in the SEC West. But the West still has 4 top-25 teams. If we’re using current standings, the East doesn’t have a single nonconference win against a team that is in the AP Top 25 entering Week 7. The SEC West has 2 such wins, and they didn’t come from Alabama or Ole Miss (MSU beat NC State by 14 and Arkansas beat Texas by 19). That’s the depth.
Is now the part of the argument where we seed each team 1-7 and do a fake matchup? Sign me up for some Ole Miss-Penn State. Ohhhh Arkansas-Michigan?!? The game that was stolen from us can return? Maybe?
RYAN: I actually laughed out loud when you claimed LSU as being 1 of 6 West teams to be ranked this year. It was ranked in the preseason based off reputation and fell out once it lost to UCLA in the opener. The Tigers are a good comp to Indiana, which also has not lived up to its preseason ranking.
I do love those non-conference wins you speak of, like Arkansas beating Texas. But Texas always seems to lose a non-conference Power 5 game. The only reason Maryland didn’t beat Texas again was that Maryland didn’t play Texas. I’m only half kidding …
Anyways, the non-conference wins over ranked teams is moving the goal posts a little bit. Michigan State beat Miami when it was ranked (as did Alabama) and Penn State beat Auburn when it was ranked. Michigan beat Washington a week after it fell out of the rankings. And like I mentioned, Indiana (last place in the East) had the current No. 3 team in the country (Cincinnati) down in the fourth quarter. That has to mean something, right?
Here’s what is tough about these debates. You can say, the SEC West is great because Alabama is great. But now you are saying, the West is great because someone beat Alabama. But the B1G wouldn’t get that same benefit of the doubt. If Maryland last week had beaten Ohio State, it would’ve been that the B1G East is bad because Ohio State is down (even though Maryland had looked much better than Texas A&M before last week).
One other thing: I’m not saying Alabama would beat any B1G East team on a neutral site. I’m saying I’d probably pick the Tide and that they would be favored. Against Ohio State at a neutral site this week? That’s going to be a close game that could probably go either way. Ohio State can obviously beat Bama because Texas A&M just did that. Any of those top 4 in the B1G East could do it because they are all better than the Aggies. Remember when A&M won by 3 against a Colorado squad that is now 1-4 and is one of the worst teams in the Pac-12? (Minnesota , which is hardly a world beater, beat Colorado by 30.)
I think the only way to settle this would be by seeding these teams.
- Ohio State vs. Alabama
- Penn State vs. Ole Miss
- Michigan vs. Arkansas
- Michigan State vs. Texas A&M
- Maryland vs. Auburn
- Rutgers vs. Mississippi State
- Indiana vs. LSU
On a neutral site and assuming both teams are completely healthy, I’m taking Alabama, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Auburn, Mississippi State and Indiana.
CONNOR: For what it’s worth, I brought up LSU for the same reason why you brought up Indiana. I think it’s extremely similar in terms of how they were perceived relative to expectations, but I had the context that LSU was the only West team that didn’t at least receive AP Top 25 votes as a top-30 team in the country.
Honestly, I’d agree with you on 6 of those 7 games. I’d give a tiny edge to Michigan against Arkansas after watching the Hogs’ run defense fall apart against elite competition the last couple weeks.
The game I’d push back on is Ole Miss-Penn State. I’d take Lane Kiffin’s squad to win that game on a neutral site even if it meant Sean Clifford was the best version of himself. Do I think that Penn State defense is excellent? Absolutely. Do I think that group has faced a quarterback in the stratosphere that Matt Corral is in? No way. Graham Mertz, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. and Spencer Petras ain’t exactly Murderers’ Row. There’s not a single thing that one of them does better than Corral, including making plays with his legs.
Could we really expect the Penn State offense to roll against a mediocre-at-best Ole Miss defense? I don’t think so. You know I love me some Noah Cain, but that Penn State ground game is barely inside the top 100. I couldn’t trust that group to hold a lead against Corral, who entered last weekend as the only QB with 100 dropbacks and 0 turnover-worthy plays (PFF).
Maybe part of my belief in Corral is that I already watched him rack up 379 yards against that Indiana defense in last year’s Outback Bowl. Either way, give me Corral and Ole Miss in that juicy matchup. For me, that would tip the scales 4-3 in favor of the SEC West.
What do you say to the idea of just adding this new SEC West/B1G East challenge in the third week of December and pretending that injuries/exams don’t matter?
RYAN: It would be a whole lot of fun. Hopefully we get a few of these matchups in bowl season! One last thing I would push back on … Corral is awesome, but he did have 2 games last year with 5-plus interceptions, so this isn’t quite like going against Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields. He’s capable of a bad game every now and again.
I’m really interested to see how Ohio State develops and whether the Buckeyes can sustain this. Their offense looks every bit like it is the best in the country. If it continues, I would have to consider changing my pick.
I’ll leave you with that. Enjoy the games this weekend, everyone!