Editor’s note: Ryan O’Gara and Connor O’Gara grew up following sports in suburban Chicago. The brothers, separated by 20 months, debated about their favorite teams and players so often that their father would often have to remind them, “This isn’t PTI.” Each Friday, they’re bringing that debate to you, centered around the Big Ten and college football as a whole.

This week’s debate: Which Big Ten team will disappoint in Week 1?

RYAN: College football has turned into a year-round sport, and that was never more true than it is this year. From NIL, to College Football Playoff expansion, to conference realignment, there was never a shortage of topics to discuss. But now that the actual season is here, let’s talk about what we’re about to see on the field.

There were quite a few early-season disappointments in the Big Ten last year as 3 teams that finished 2019 on a high note with impressive bowl victories and started in the preseason Top 25 (Penn State, Minnesota and Iowa) stumbled out of the gate. Expectations were high for each of those programs, and they all started 0-2. Ohio State struggled a bit in the first half on Thursday night at Minnesota and actually trailed at halftime, but it looked sharp in the second half in winning by 2 touchdowns.

There is 1 B1G game on Friday night and 8 more on Saturday involving B1G teams. With that in mind, which team will underwhelm in Week 1?

I’ll say Northwestern, even though it plays a team that is projected to be one of the worst in the Big Ten in Michigan State.

The Wildcats, who have won 2 of the last 3 Big Ten West titles, received votes in both the preseason AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll. That means they are a borderline Top 25 team. When the games kick off this weekend, I don’t think they will look like that.

In a strange season in which so many teams are returning numerous starters due to the free season of eligibility, Northwestern has just 7 back. That would be unusually low in a normal season, much less a season like this.

There are serious questions on the offensive side, and I fear that this unit will look like the 2019 one that ranked 123rd nationally in yards per game (297.1). Hunter Johnson, the former 5-star recruit who played poorly in 2019, won the starting QB job, and he could have just as much trouble in 2021 due to the Wildcats’ lack of weapons. Northwestern lost its top 4 receivers and will be without its top 3 rushers after Cam Porter sustained a season-ending injury in preseason camp. Northwestern could really use Kyric McGowan (Georgia Tech), Drake Anderson (Arizona) and Isaiah Bowser (UCF). I’m not saying those guys were stars, but the depth and continuity would have helped.

There are some studs, like safety Brandon Joseph and left tackle Peter Skoronski. Kansas transfer Stephon Robinson looks like a player, too. Everyone knows Pat Fitzgerald is awesome, but this will be a big challenge.

I like Michigan State to win in Evanston. The Spartans have had significant roster turnover and brought in 20 transfers, including 14 from Power 5 schools. Plus, they beat Northwestern last year when the Wildcats were playing their best.

Who is on your radar for possible disappointment in Week 1?

CONNOR: Oh, opening weekend disappointment. There’s nothing like it in this sport. To have 8 months of hope and promise dashed on the first fall Saturday is as deflating as it gets.

I like the Northwestern pick because of the point you brought up about the roster turnover. The returning production is bottom of the barrel. In fact, no Power 5 team returns a smaller percentage of its 2020 production than Northwestern. That’s, um, not great when you’re a program that struggles just to sign a top-50 class.

I could absolutely see a scenario in which Michigan State goes into Evanston and wins a 17-14 game. I mean, Mel Tucker handed Pat Fitzgerald his first loss last year. What’s to say he can’t do it again? But I’ll push back on this argument mostly because I really don’t have a lot of faith in the Spartans this year. I agreed with the preseason poll that Rutgers supplanted them and they’re staring at a last-place finish in the East. I think Northwestern could be a major disappointment on the year because of the reason you mentioned with the offense. Johnson has a ton to prove there.

But with just this week? I’ll take Indiana to disappoint. Let me explain that because I fear some read that and said “they’re underdogs, idiot.” First of all, I know that, idiot. Second, I’m sorry for calling you an idiot.

What I mean is I could easily see Iowa, in an electric Kinnick Stadium atmosphere for the first time in almost 2 years, winning by 2 or 3 scores. Indiana has never gone into a truly raucous environment and won since it’s been at this level with Tom Allen. After getting its first preseason Associated Press Top 25 spot since the Richard Nixon administration, I’d worry about the Hoosiers handling Tyler Goodson and that ground game. I think that Iowa offensive line, led by Tyler Linderbaum, will be firing off the ball in the opener.

I wouldn’t want Michael Penix Jr. in obvious passing situations from the jump, and that’s what I think he’ll be in early. His accuracy will be tested in that road environment, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he made a costly mistake.

I know you’re not as high on Iowa this year, but the Hawkeyes with a packed Kinnick Stadium? Man, that just always seems like a different beast.

RYAN: I’m not as high on Iowa as some, but I still have the Hawkeyes beating Indiana and Penn State and finishing 9-3. The concern for me is the offense, specifically QB Spencer Petras. If I were Indiana, I would load the box and force him to beat an excellent secondary that knows how to get takeaways.

There’s also the recency bias of the way last year started for both these teams. Iowa was sluggish out of the gate in losing twice to open the season, while Indiana beat Penn State and Michigan in the first 3 weeks. Granted, both of those games were at home, and a full house at Kinnick is a different animal, but I think the Hoosiers will keep it close before losing.

In terms of another letdown, I’m not all that confident in Penn State winning at Camp Randall. I know Wisconsin is favored, so it wouldn’t be a disappointment necessarily, but starting out back-to-back seasons with losses when you have that much talent is tough. Especially with Ohio State still on the schedule. The Nittany Lions can’t control the schedule (Wisconsin and Iowa as crossover opponents? Yikes), but gosh, this was a year where it would’ve been nice for a few easy ones before a showdown like this.

Which B1G teams do you think will disappoint this year relative to expectations? I’ll give you 3: Michigan, Nebraska and Northwestern.

Nebraska is facing an uphill climb to a bowl game, as I had Illinois as 1 of their 6 wins. Michigan is liable to quit at any moment despite having a talent advantage in most games. And Northwestern, as you mentioned, simply doesn’t have the talent to sustain so much roster turnover.

CONNOR: At this point, we should probably not include Nebraska in this discussion. When you disappoint like the Huskers do, it’s too obvious to say that they belong in a discussion of potential letdown teams. The same could be said for Michigan, though I’d argue that 2015 and 2016 weren’t total disappointments.

I’ll piggyback on the potential Penn State disappointment there. I’ve been a big Noah Cain guy for awhile, and I think he’s ready to explode after his season-ending injury last year, but just as you mentioned with Petras, I worry about Sean Clifford. I’m skeptical about some of the offseason conversation with him being back to the guy he was in 2019. KJ Hamler was such a unique weapon on that team. Clifford needs Jahan Dotson to truly be that guy week-in, week-out, and it can’t just be him and Parker Washington. I wonder about those emerging targets and if Penn State can be a team that can rally back from a deficit late against a decent foe.

It’s funny because I say that as someone who picked Penn State to beat Ohio State in the regular season, though I could totally see a scenario in which it’s a 7-5 year and suddenly, 2 disappointing seasons in a row puts James Franklin back in that late-September 2016 spot.

I guess by that standard, a 2-loss Ohio State team that misses out on the Playoff would be considered disappointing. I would have major concerns about what it looks like when that defensive line can’t get home. I think they have some major issues on the back end that could surface in those games where there is a big-time receiver, like Dotson, who torched the Buckeyes for 144 yards and 3 scores last year.

Well, I feel like we just said half the league could be disappointing, so why don’t we end this on a positive note?

Full crowds! Full season! Cheers!