Editor’s note: Ryan O’Gara and Connor O’Gara grew up following sports in suburban Chicago. The brothers, separated by 20 months, debated about their favorite teams and players so often that their father would often have to remind them, “This isn’t PTI.” Each Friday, they’re bringing that debate to you, centered around the Big Ten and college football as a whole.

This week’s debate: Who will be the next B1G program to make a coaching change?

RYAN: It’s been an unforgettable week in college football with Lincoln Riley bolting Oklahoma for USC and Brian Kelly leaving Notre Dame for LSU. It was a reminder that everyone has a price for leaving, even if that doesn’t usually happen to programs like Oklahoma and Notre Dame.

There haven’t been any coaching changes in the Big Ten thus far, and barring a surprise, it doesn’t look like there will be one. There was only one last season (Illinois). So, which will be the next program that needs a new coach, whether it be because they fired their current one or he left for another job?

Right now, there is a ton of stability in this conference, which is why I don’t think anyone is leaving before 2022. The 2 guys who were heavily rumored as candidates for USC and LSU, James Franklin and Mel Tucker, both signed extensions. PJ Fleck signed an extension. Scott Frost is coming back for another year. Jim Harbaugh had his long-awaited breakthrough, and Jeff Brohm had one, too, at Purdue. Ryan Day likely won’t leave for another college job. Pat Fitzgerald will never get fired. Mike Locksley just led Maryland to a bowl game. Rutgers is still very happy with Greg Schiano. Kirk Ferentz is entrenched at Iowa until the end of time. Tom Allen is one year removed from leading Indiana to a top-10 ranking … in football! Paul Chryst has a strong track record at Wisconsin and has shown no signs of leaving.

Next year, though, there could be a few programs itching to make a change. I think the easiest answer is Nebraska. It’s pretty clear that Frost has a 6-game window to prove himself before the buyout will lessen and make it feasible for Nebraska to move on. Even if you think Frost is going to turn it around, he would be a heavy favorite if we were setting some odds, just based off how his 4 years have gone.

After that, though, it gets a little more interesting.

I know Tom Allen was the media darling last year, and I know that his buyout is huge, but I’m watching to see how this develops. Something (or a lot of things) was very off this season about the Hoosiers, who went 2-10 after starting the season ranked No. 17. That’s a dramatic collapse. Sure, Indiana was without its top 2 QBs for most of the season, but it looked terrible when Michael Penix Jr. and Jack Tuttle were healthy.

And I know Indiana climbed all the way up to No. 7 last year and finished No. 12, but I think all of the goodwill has already worn off from that. This was a terrible season, with no wins against B1G opponents or Power 5 teams. The Hoosiers had the worst point differential in the B1G, worse than even Northwestern. Allen had to fire his offensive coordinator, Nick Sheridan, and take a pay cut, presumably to pay for the buyout. If Indiana has another year like this, Allen will definitely be on the hot seat.

Even if that buyout is in the $20 million range, who’s to say Indiana couldn’t renegotiate with Allen in the same way Nebraska did with Frost to make that buyout more manageable?

Maybe that takes a few bad years, but who knows, it’s tough to see anyone aside from Frost leaving next year.

Who do you think will be the next to go?

CONNOR: I like that we essentially are putting Frost in his own category here. He’s the overwhelming choice, but this really isn’t much of a debate if we include him. There’s no way Frost would have plus money if we were doing this based on odds. Everyone else, I’m guessing, would be at least +400 because it doesn’t really feel like many teams could even think about making a move.

I’m tempted to throw out my longtime wild card that Kirk Ferentz retires and Bret Bielema takes his job, which would technically mean Iowa would be next. But in good faith, I can’t sit here and predict that the longest-tenured FBS coach is going to be guy in the B1G’s next coaching change. And as much as we’ll probably hear the chatter, I also can’t envision the Chicago Bears calling on Pat Fitzgerald to make sure Justin Fields isn’t another tragic quarterback tale in the Windy City.

I’ll go off the radar and say Minnesota with PJ Fleck. No, I don’t think that the Gophers move on from him. I think a bigger program comes over the top next year and is willing to fork over that $10 million to Minnesota in order to land Fleck. It’s crazy to me that he’s going to be entering Year 6 next year, and with that new contract, he’s up to $5.1 million. And I’m not saying that Fleck is chasing the almighty dollar, but it’s no secret that he’s one of the top young coaches in the sport. After next year, he’ll have a decade of experience as an FBS head coach. It’ll be Tanner Morgan’s last year in the Twin Cities, and then Fleck could move on.

To be clear, I’m more pro-Fleck than anti-Fleck. He himself says he’s not for everyone. He’s not. There are a bunch of programs that won’t necessarily gel with his upbeat vibe. That’s OK. Maybe it’s a place like Miami (FL) or Florida State where Fleck is needed to pump some energy into the building. If Mario Cristobal eventually takes the Miami job, Fleck would be an interesting fit at a place like Oregon, too. We just saw Lincoln Riley head to the Pac-12. Perhaps Fleck could also head west to join the more favorable conference in terms of easiest paths to the Playoff.

Fleck has proven that he can win at the Power 5 level. I think it’s only a matter of time before someone makes him a splashy hire to revitalize a traditional power.

That’s more likely than Indiana firing Allen for 2 bad seasons when you consider that he would still have that hefty buyout.

Now if Allen were to rebuild next year and Lane Kiffin left Ole Miss after 3 years in Oxford, then I could see Indiana having to make a change, but that’s got a lot of moving pieces. Allen would also potentially be of interest at those 2 aforementioned jobs in the Sunshine State, given his roots down there.

It does sort of feel like the B1G dodged a major bullet with this coaching carousel. Then again, after the Riley-to-USC thing, can we totally rule out Ryan Day to the Bears?

RYAN:  I can’t imagine Indiana sits back with another season like this and just accepts being the worst team in the Big Ten. How will it ever convince its fans that it cares about football if it accepts being awful? Maybe Allen fires another coordinator next year? Maybe Indiana renegotiates and gets him to lower his buyout? Either way, though, that’s a monster buyout that limits Indiana’s options.

I hear what you’re saying about Fleck, and eventually I think he’ll look to take a big job, but I kind of feel like 2019 was his time to pounce. He may never have a season like that again. We’ll see what he can do with his former offensive coordinator, Kirk Ciarrocca, reportedly coming back.

One other name I’m watching: Mike Locksley. He had the second-lowest buyout in the B1G as of earlier this fall, behind only Jim Harbaugh. Yes, he led Maryland to a bowl game, but the Terrapins were 1 of only 4 B1G teams to have a negative point differential. After a really strong start, Maryland really underwhelmed in B1G play. Heading into Year 4, Maryland has to show it can hang with the B1G’s best teams.

It’s not easy to predict this stuff, and really, all of these guys aside from Frost look pretty secure. Who knows, maybe it’ll be a guy we didn’t even bring up. That’s what is crazy about this era of college football; these things turn dramatically in an instant.