B1G hoops roundtable: Debating the biggest questions entering the 2022-23 season

The Big Ten feels like a deep league again, with double-digit teams that think they can position themselves for an NCAA Tournament berth.

But is it also a conference without a premier team? Maybe. Only 3 were ranked in the AP Top 25 in the preseason: Indiana (13th), Michigan (22nd) and Illinois (23rd). If a Big Ten team is to get to the Final Four, and win a national championship for the 1st time in 2 decades, it will need to defy expectations.

B1G experts Alex Hickey and Kyle Charters bounce around some of the big topics in this B1G roundtable.

1. Indiana is almost universally considered the team to beat in the Big Ten this year. Are you buying in?

Alex Hickey: If — and this is a big if — the Hoosiers can actually make free throws and 3-pointers this season, then Indiana is definitely the team to beat in the Big Ten. No other team has more core players returning, and that starts with Big Ten preseason player of the year Trayce Jackson-Davis. Experience is a rare commodity at this level of college basketball, and the veteran leadership of Jackson-Davis, Xavier Johnson and Race Thompson is enormous.

But along with the great expectations comes a tough schedule. Ohio State is the only top-tier conference opponent the Hoosiers don’t visit. Illinois, on the other hand, gets a friendly draw. The Illini don’t have to visit Michigan, Michigan State or Rutgers. And they have home-and-homes with the 4 bottom teams in the conference. So I think Illinois should perhaps be considered the regular-season title favorite.

Kyle Charters: Although Illinois might very well win the Big Ten, or at least be a contender until the last week of the season, it’d be a hard prediction to make right now. I put Ohio State in the same category. Why? Both the Fighting Illini and Buckeyes have so many new pieces, between the portal and high school recruiting, that it’s almost impossible to know how those teams will come together. And to know how quickly those squads will gel. Now, there’s no question there’s a ton of talent in Champaign and Columbus — we’ve seen Illinois newcomer Terrence Shannon Jr., previously, but in a Texas Tech uniform, and the same for Ohio State newcomer Isaac Iikekele but at Oklahoma State — so the potential is definitely there.

But in terms of teams we know about: Indiana is the one that has the most talent returning, so it’s reasonable to pick the Hoosiers as the preseason favorites. But you’re right, if IU doesn’t shoot the ball better than it has in the last half decade (or longer), then it won’t win the league.

2. A year ago, no one mentioned Wisconsin as even a possibility as a conference contender, yet the Badgers earned a share of the crown. Who is this year’s Wisconsin?

KC: Seems crazy to say this, but maybe Michigan State?

No one is picking the Spartans right now, but it’s hard to count out Tom Izzo. And MSU has enough weapons to at least finish in the top 4 of the conference, with Malik Hall, Joey Hauser and AJ Hoggard. The Spartans are missing a proven big man in a big man-heavy league, so I’d be surprised if they win the title.

AH: The reason we whiffed on Wisconsin is we were blind to what Johnny Davis was about to become. Because let’s face it: This was like Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers or Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band. One superstar and some less prominent players who had really great chemistry.

So to answer that, my mind wanders to “Who could be this year’s Johnny Davis?” And I think it’s another guy who has a twin brother: Iowa’s Kris Murray.

Obviously the Hawkeyes will miss Keegan Murray, but part of the reason Kris returned to Iowa City was to prove he can carry the load just as well. I really like the pieces Fran McCaffery has on this roster. I don’t think the talent gap between Kris and the other Hawkeyes is as vast as that between Davis and the other Badgers.

3. On that note, who is your pick as an unexpected star?

KC: Oh boy, now that’s a difficult question.

Johnny Davis’ rise was almost a once-in-a-generation story, from role player to Big Ten star to top-10 NBA Draft pick, all in less than 2 seasons. Not sure we’ll see that kind of character arc again soon.

But I think there’s a chance Michigan State point guard AJ Hoggard could take a big jump forward this season, and he’ll need to if the Spartans are to get back to being what they’ve always been under coach Tom Izzo. Hoggard encapsulated MSU’s entire season in 2021-22, as his inconsistencies echoed those of the Spartans. But the former top-75 recruit has the talent, size and athleticism to become a headache for the rest of the Big Ten. He had a nearly 2.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio last season (although probably with more turnovers than he and Izzo want), which is great, but look for his scoring average to soar this year, maybe even double the 7 points it was a year ago.

AH: I certainly don’t expect him to be a superstar, but I think Rutgers guard Paul Mulcahy could have an all-B1G caliber season. He’s really a point guard, but has played out of position for 3 years to accommodate Geo Baker. With Mulcahy running the point, I think the Scarlet Knights will have a much smoother transition than most are expecting without Baker and Ron Harper Jr. Rutgers has a chance to get back to the NCAA Tournament, and possibly be even better than last season.

4. Which Big Ten teams do you see making the Tourney?

KC: Well, let’s go ahead and make ridiculously early predictions by lumping teams into 3 categories:

Solidly in: Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa and Wisconsin.

On the bubble: Rutgers and Maryland.

See ya next year: Northwestern, Nebraska, Minnesota and Penn State.

So that’s 8 teams in with the potential for 2 more. And while the Big Ten might not have a sure-fire contender for a national championship, it’s a deep conference. Which of those top 8 have the most tenuous hold on a spot in the Field of 68?

AH: I expect full protestation from your corner, but of your 8 solidly-in teams I believe Purdue is standing on the most gelatinous surface. Jaden Ivey and Trevion Williams were such extraordinary talents in making that offense flow beautifully. How many minutes can Zach Edey log every game? Who can possibly run the point as well as Ivey? Is Mason Gillis going to make a big enough leap to be the player I think he’ll need to be in order for the Boilers to be good?

I trust your judgement, but you’ll need to convince me that my skepticism is wrong.

5. What non-conference games are you most looking forward to?

AH: North Carolina at Indiana in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge on Nov. 30 is going to be all kinds of fun. I expect the best atmosphere at Assembly Hall since the Hoosiers beat Kentucky and made John Calipari too scared to ever come back.

And you can always count on Tom Izzo giving us non-conference games worth watching. Michigan State’s games against Gonzaga and Kentucky will be appointment viewing.

KC: Well, you’re correct about the non-conference slate, but wrong about Purdue. I’ll file my protest with the proper authorities by the end of the business day.

As for other non-conference games, how about the Big Ten Futures game between Illinois and UCLA on Nov. 18 in Las Vegas? That’ll be must-see for 2 teams with high hopes this season. And it’s what … 300 miles between Ann Arbor and Lexington? … so why not have Michigan and Kentucky fly to London for a game on Dec. 4? Should be a great time across the pond.

6. Who is the transfer who will make the biggest impact?

AH: Given the makeup of Ohio State’s roster, there’s a pretty good chance this will be a Buckeye, right? If the Bucks do anything this year, it’ll be because of new arrivals. And in that vein I’ll go with Wright State transfer Tanner Holden, who averaged 20.1 points per game for the Raiders last season. He’s a 2-time all-Horizon guy and I think he’ll fit in great with what Chris Holtmann wants to do.

KC: In a league full of potentially impactful transfers, we’ve mentioned a bunch of the great candidates, including Holden and Iikekele at Ohio State, and Shannon at Illinois. One other I’ll throw into the mix is a fellow new Illini in Baylor transfer Matthew Mayer, a forward who has played at the highest level, having helped the Bears to a national championship a couple years ago. Sometimes, when a player is transferring up from a mid-major, there are concerns about how that will translate. But not here; Mayer averaged about 10 points and 5 boards last season at Baylor, numbers that should sustain, at the least, in Champaign.

7. Who do you have winning the league title?

AH: Three of the past 4 Big Ten regular-season titles have been shared by 2 or more teams, and I believe that trend will continue. And this is where I cop out.

I believe 2-3 of the following 4 teams will tie for the regular season title: Indiana, Illinois, Iowa and Michigan. And whomever in that mix doesn’t get a share will be a game back. We’ve been sleeping on the Wolverines for this entire conversation, it feels like, so I suppose that means they’ll probably go ahead and win the thing outright now that I’ve predicted a tie.

KC: I feel you on Michigan. The Wolverines arguably have the best player in the league in Hunter Dickinson, yet we’re only now mentioning Juwan Howard’s squad. His roster, like that of so many other programs in the Big Ten this season, has a ton of newcomers, including both likely impact freshmen and transfers.

But I think I’ll go with Illinois. There’s always a danger in bringing in so many known pieces, but if Brad Underwood can get the personnel to mesh, he might have the most talented and versatile roster in the Big Ten. That doesn’t always win the league, but it generally puts you in the conversation, and the Fighting Illini will be there at the end.