
B1G Monday Morning: In first weekend of chaos, B1G emerges as a winner
As a Big Ten fan, wasn’t Saturday nice? The college football world wasn’t mocking the league that can’t score, or the league that doesn’t have good enough athletes. Or the league that is outdated.
No, that honor on Saturday belonged to the SEC, highlighted by two coaches — Georgia’s Kirby Smart and South Carolina’s Will Muschamp — making puzzling decision after puzzling decision. It ultimately ended with formerly No. 3 Georgia stumbling and changing the landscape for this 2019 season – especially for the Big Ten, which got every result it needed and is sitting pretty after seven weeks.
At the midpoint of the college football season, this much looks certain: The Big Ten will end its two-year College Football Playoff drought. There are 12 undefeated FBS teams left in the country, and four of them are from the Big Ten. Of the top seven teams in the latest AP poll, three are from the Big Ten.
On a day in which eight ranked teams lost, including four previously unbeaten teams, the Big Ten survived. No, that doesn’t even do Saturday justice. The Big Ten thrived. Sixth-ranked Wisconsin dominated; No. 7 Penn State won in a hostile environment; No. 20 Minnesota rolled; and No. 4 Ohio State sat on its couch and watched Georgia stumble to the random loss that it has grown accustomed to.
To be clear, none of the Power Five conferences have clinched a berth in the CFP and none of the Power Five conferences have been eliminated. But at the very least, we can cross off some of the Doomsday Scenarios that would have prevented the Big Ten from getting a team in.
For one, we can officially put to rest the theory that the SEC deserves three teams in the CFP. If non-SEC teams could’ve chosen one team in the country to lose on Saturday, it would’ve been Georgia. Or at least it should’ve been, because Georgia’s loss was the best thing to happen to non-SEC programs. There was a scenario in which Georgia went undefeated until the SEC title game and lost to an undefeated Alabama where both teams would get in, plus a one-loss LSU. All it would’ve taken was Ohio State losing a random game to a middling Big Ten team, Oklahoma tripping up against Texas in the Big 12 title game and Oregon losing at Washington or Arizona State, and there we would be, three SEC teams in the CFP.
Now, it also will make it very, very hard for Notre Dame to get in. If an undefeated Georgia was in the CFP, a one-loss Notre Dame (with that loss being by six points at Georgia) would have also had a strong case. But since South Carolina just won at Georgia with its third-string QB, that doesn’t make Notre Dame’s loss look all that special anymore.
Ohio State looks to be the league’s best shot at making the CFP, as FiveThirtyEight estimates the Buckeyes have a 48 percent chance. The biggest winner of the weekend, though, was Wisconsin, which shot up from a 17 percent chance to 27 percent after demolishing Michigan State. And lurking just behind the Badgers, Penn State is up to a 19 percent chance.
The best scenario for any conference is to have four or five really good teams. The public needs to know who is good, so it can point to certain games as quality wins. The worst scenario is in the Pac 12 because the teams seem much more evenly matched and are prone to these random upsets. Don’t forget, the Pac 12 won all three of its games against the Big Ten (Stanford over Northwestern, Colorado over Nebraska and Arizona State over Michigan State). Granted, those aren’t the Big Ten’s elite teams, but the Big Ten still looks like the superior league because it has those unbeatens at the top that have avoided the random losses to lesser teams. And that was the case Saturday as the higher-ranked teams that needed to win for the sake of the league — Wisconsin, Minnesota and Penn State — all won. And did so in impressive fashion.
This was the first major shakeup to the college football world – the top six in the AP poll had been the same six teams since the preseason – and the Big Ten survived it. And even better, Wisconsin was even the one to slide into that top six and replace Georgia.
There is a long way to go, no doubt. But the Big Ten is in a terrific spot.
Notebook
A look around the Big Ten at the major storylines from the weekend.
Wisconsin’s insane defense
Wisconsin is in the midst of one of the finest defensive seasons in recent history. In a 38-0 win over Michigan State, the Badgers dominated on defense, allowing just 149 total yards in tallying their fourth shutout. Michigan State’s best play was a fake punt.
Here is what’s striking about Wisconsin’s defense: It was as unheralded as a unit as you can find in the offseason. The Badgers got relatively no love on that side of the ball from any of the preseason magazines. Phil Steele and Athlon Sports did not have a single Wisconsin player on their Preseason All-Big Ten First or Second Teams.
Let’s take a look, via College Football Reference:
— Wisconsin is allowing an FBS-best 4.8 points per game at the midway point. If the Badgers keep that pace, it would be far and away the fewest allowed in the last 10 years. Alabama is the only team in the last decade to allow single-digit points per game when it yielded 8.2 per contest in 2011.
— The most shutouts in a single season since 2000 is four. It’s been done four times: Virginia Tech (2001), Virginia Tech (2006), Alabama (2012) and Wisconsin (2019). Oh, did I mention Wisconsin still has six games left?
— Wisconsin has allowed 29 points through its first six games. That is the fewest since at least 2000.
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— Wisconsin has allowed just three points in the first half, which is the fewest in the country. It’s a big reason that the Badgers have only played one game (Northwestern) that was competitive in the fourth quarter.
In regards to just how good Wisconsin is, this seems notable: It isn’t just beating teams, it is taking their souls. What the Badgers did to Michigan and now to Michigan State can’t be overstated. They prompted two very good programs to look inward and really question their identity and direction moving forward. It doesn’t get better than that.
Penn State showing its cards
Before traveling to Iowa City, Penn State hadn’t shown us a ton this season, other than it was supremely talented. Through five games, Penn State had four running backs between 24 and 35 carries. When push came to shove in big games, whom would the Nittany Lions turn to?
After not having a running back with more than 10 carries in its first four games (the luxury of playing in blowouts), Penn State is showing its hand a bit more. Noah Cain’s workload has steadily increased over the last month, with six carries against Pitt, seven against Maryland, 12 against Purdue and finally, 22 against Iowa. He delivered, too, with 102 yards and a touchdown, giving him back-to-back 100-yard games. Penn State has been blessed at running back the last few years with Saquon Barkely and Miles Sanders, and it takes a while to find the next in line. Depth is great, but Penn State needs a back to lean on in big games. Cain looked the part Saturday.
Minnesota gets some respect
After six wins, Minnesota got some respect and cracked the Top 25, checking in at No. 20 (after last week there were 16 unbeaten teams, and Minnesota was one of the two still unranked). If Missouri is going to be ranked after having not really beaten anyone and also with a loss at Wyoming, well, it certainly makes sense for Minnesota to be up there.
The biggest takeaway from the weekend, though, was that Minnesota finally looked like a ranked team in a 35-7 victory against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are a flawed team, as they’ve repeatedly shown this season, and they were playing their backup quarterback. But the Golden Gophers did what they were supposed to do, and that wasn’t something that you could say about them in the first three games of the season.
Minnesota also showed some versatility in rushing for 322 yards, one week after it piled up 332 against Illinois. Coming off back-to-back games where it failed to break 100, that’s a great sign. Tanner Morgan is trustworthy at quarterback, and those receivers are terrific, so if the Golden Gophers are able to be multi-faceted, it certainly bodes well for its back-loaded schedule in which it faces Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin – all of which rank in the top 19 nationally of ESPN’s Defensive Efficiency metric.
Michigan, we’ve (still) got a problem
Don’t let the final score deceive you. Michigan is still working through its issues. Letting Illinois, with its backup quarterback in, come back from a 28-point deficit and pull within a field goal is worrisome. This whole season has been worrisome. Nothing has been easy this season for Michigan, starting with the Army game and continuing through Wisconsin and Iowa games. It’s in stark contrast to Ohio State and Wisconsin, who continue to bulldoze opponents in impressive fashion.
At this point, Michigan is 5-1 and still in control of its own destiny. FiveThirtyEight, however, gives it just a 1 percent chance of winning out with three top-eight teams still on its schedule, starting with Penn State next Saturday. It feels like we say this every week, but we will learn a lot about Michigan in Happy Valley.
Three Up, Three Down
The best and worst of the rest of Week 7 in the Big Ten.
Up
1. Purdue passers (and runners!)
Jack Plummer showed Purdue a glimpse of the future with his 420-yard performance in a 40-14 win over Maryland. Filling in for the injured Elijah Sindelar, Plummer easily set a career high in yardage (his previous best was 245 yards) and . Plummer completed 33 of 41 passes for an 80.5 completion percentage — the third-highest from a Big Ten player with at least 40 passing attempts since 2000. Purdue is also just the second Big Ten team with two different 400-yard passers in the same season, according to Big Ten Network.
*CORRECTION* from a previous note. @BoilerFootball is the 2nd #BigTen team ever to have 2 different 400-yard passers in a season. Minnesota had 2 in the 1993 season. #Purdue #BoilerUp
— BTNStatsGuys (@BTNStatsGuys) October 12, 2019
Also, shout out to the Purdue ground game, which finished with 127 yards. It’s a big step up after totaling -19 last week against Penn State. It’s noteworthy because since Jeff Brohm took over in 2017, Purdue has been one of the worst rushing teams in the country, with 15 games with under 100 yards — tied for fourth most in the country, just behind Brohm’s old squad, Western Kentucky.
If that doesn’t show you badly this season has turned for Maryland… well, it’s been bad. Especially on defense. They were among the nation’s best after three weeks, but since then, it surrendered 398 yards from Sean Clifford and this game from Plummer. In the last two decades, those rank as the seventh-most and fifth-most yards it has allowed to a quarterback. And the next two weeks, it gets Michael Penix Jr. and Tanner Morgan, who have been two of the Big Ten’s best this season.
2. Indiana is legit?
Admittedly, it’s a little tough to get a feel for the Hoosiers. They got thumped by the best team in the Big Ten, and they thumped the worst team in the Big Ten — that being Saturday’s 35-0 win over hapless Rutgers. That said, there’s a lot to be encouraged about in Bloomington and worth tracking even though basketball season is starting soon.
I know, it’s been said before. But at 4-2 and with games at Maryland, at Nebraska and vs. Northwestern up next, don’t you think Indiana could at least be 6-3, if not 7-2, by the time it travels to Penn State? IU hasn’t won seven games since 2007. And, gasp, could this be an eight-win IU team? Maybe. That hasn’t happened since 1993.
The Hoosiers look well on their way to their fifth straight season in the top 35 nationally in terms of passing yards per game. The difference has been defensively, as the Hoosiers are allowing 19.7 points per game, down from 29.9 last season. Let’s remember that Indiana isn’t that far removed from a 2010-2015 stretch in which it yielded at least 32.8 per game. While shutting out Rutgers isn’t anything to write home about, Indiana has already played Ohio State, and the teams coming up next haven’t exactly been lighting it up.
3. At least Illinois doesn’t give up
You have to admire their fight. Without its starting quarterback and trailing Michigan 28-0, Illinois scored 25 unanswered and made this a game. And that was while getting out-gained 489-256. The box score wasn’t pretty, as the Fighting Illini were just 3 of 13 on third down, allowed four sacks and had 10 penalties. But they made one of the premier programs really work for it and gave us something fun to watch in that first wave of games.
Now is that going to inspire any confidence in Illinois moving forward? Are Lovie Smith’s days as head coach numbered? Yes and yes. This is a four-win team at best, and Rutgers may turn out to be the only win left on the schedule. It’s a shame after that 2-0 start, but this is the reality for the Illini.
Down
1. Michigan State’s sorry offense
In terms of viral moments, Mark Dantonio probably won Saturday in the Big Ten. He was asked after that 38-0 loss to Wisconsin whether it was a mistake to not making any changes to his offensive coaching staff and instead just shuffled them to different position groups. Dantonio responded, “I don’ think you ask those questions right now, we’re seven games into the schedule. I think that’s sort of a dumbass question, to be honest with you.”
Here is the postgame moment with Mark Dantonio everyone will be talking about with Michigan State this week. pic.twitter.com/nKiBo4Od3v
— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) October 12, 2019
I would like to be on record as saying that is not, in fact, a dumb question. It’s very fair.
Michigan State is now 11th in the Big Ten and 100th nationally in total offense at 357.4 yards per game. Remember 2014? Michigan State averaged over 500 yards per game that season. My, how things have changed.
Just a guess here, but I’ll bet Dantonio makes a few changes this offseason.
2. Nebraska badly needs a bye
Is this rock bottom? Is this as bad as it gets? Nebraska has to be hoping so, because it can’t get much worse. This wasn’t one of the traditional powers, like Ohio State. This was Minnesota, a peer. A team that Nebraska was picked safely ahead of in the preseason poll. And it wasn’t even close, with Minnesota leading 34-0 after three quarters.
Now with Adrian Martinez out and backup Noah Vedral in, maybe this game is a little different in full health. Remember with Minnesota, though, that Tanner Morgan wasn’t even supposed to be the starter; Zach Annexstad was. But the latter suffered a foot season in the preseason, and Morgan hasn’t looked back.
Still, there has been a weird vibe around the Cornhuskers from the beginning. The darling of the offseason slogged through its opener against South Alabama, with head coach Scott Frost calling out Martinez for his effort in practice. And then this, with 4-3 Nebraska about to go on bye: “I think we just need to get away from each other for a bit.”
“I think we just need to get away from each other for a bit.” Telling quote. https://t.co/Pvu5qJ03vZ
— Sam McKewon (@swmckewonOWH) October 13, 2019
3. Rutgers… badly needs this season to end
You have to feel for the players and supporters of the Rutgers football program. The starting quarterback and running back decided they would sit this one (and the rest of the season) out. The head coach and offensive coordinator already got fired. And it’s going to get worse.
No, being down three touchdowns halfway through the first quarter to Indiana wasn’t as bad as it can get. Three of Rutgers’ final six games are against ranked teams. Even the game against FCS Liberty (4-2), which has beaten Buffalo this season, looks like a loss.
Most Times Shut Out in B1G Games
Since 2000
>>Rutgers 10
Minnesota 8
Illinois 6
Purdue 5
>> joined B1G in 2014— BTNStatsGuys (@BTNStatsGuys) October 12, 2019
Looking ahead
The game of the year — Wisconsin at Ohio State — is still two weeks away. In the meantime, those two head to the Land of Lincoln hoping to not spoil this showdown before it even happens. Many, including myself, circled Ohio State’s Friday night game at Northwestern as the trap game, that one random game that Ohio State would lose like it usually does. That doesn’t seem feasible. Wisconsin gets a plucky Illinois squad with which it shouldn’t have much trouble.
The marquee game is Michigan at Penn State under the lights. It’s going to be an incredible atmosphere in Happy Valley. Nebraska and Michigan State are on bye (and they need it).