B1G Monday Morning: Until it actually becomes the big brother, Michigan is stuck
At this point, Michigan fans are resigned to their fate against Ohio State. Years and years of lopsided losses will do that to you. But Michigan State? This is the game that they can look forward to. It’s a rivalry game that, on paper, they should have a real chance at winning. The Wolverines may not win the Big Ten or even the East Division, but at least they can win a state championship, right?
Just doing that, though, has become a struggle. Even in a year where everything is going their way and the much-maligned Jim Harbaugh has rectified the major issues that have plagued this program in recent years, Michigan was met with a harsh reminder that it is not actually the big brother to Michigan State. How could it be after its 10th loss in the last 14 years?
Michigan fans are getting used to these letdowns now to the point where it’s almost expected, even to their so-called “little brother.” Now they get to watch and wait for the Spartans to be ranked in the top 5 (and as high as No. 2) of the first College Football Playoff rankings that come out on Tuesday night, knowing that could have — and probably should have — been them.
Sixth-ranked Michigan did not play poorly in the 37-33 loss to the No. 8 Spartans in East Lansing. Far from it, in fact. The Wolverines had a 552-395 advantage in total yards, had fewer penalty yards, didn’t allow a sack while tallying 3 of their own and converted 8 of 17 third downs. For 3 1/2 quarters, they were leading the turnover battle. They led by 16 points in the third quarter, and it could’ve been a lot more had they not settled for 3 field goals (and another one in the fourth).
That’s why the most difficult part to grasp is that, in a year in which Michigan put it all together, that still wasn’t good enough to win a rivalry game. Michigan cleaned up all the issues that led to a stunning home loss to a terrible Michigan State team last year. DC Mike MacDonald’s scheme is much better, even if he doesn’t quite grasp the concept of not subbing when Michigan State doesn’t sub. And most importantly, Michigan has a QB who delivered a terrific performance on the road in a big game. Is there a Michigan QB who has played better in a hostile environment in Harbaugh’s tenure than Cade McNamara on Saturday? I’d argue not.
Cade McNamara is slingin’ that rock 🚀🚀@UMichFootball is ROLLING.
(via @CFBONFOX)
— 247Sports (@247Sports) October 30, 2021
Really, Michigan’s biggest question coming into this game was whether the offense was dynamic enough with McNamara, and yeah, it most certainly was. McNamara’s 383 passing yards, 155 of which went to true freshman Andrel Anthony, showed that Harbaugh does have a guy that can sling it. That, combined with the fact that Michigan rarely has negative plays (16 all season, which is the fewest in the country) and rarely turns the ball over (it has just 6 all season, which is the 4th-fewest in the country), and you can see why this has been such a good team.
I think Harbaugh has done just about everything right this season. He overhauled the coaching staff. He established a clear identity on offense. He named McNamara the starter early in camp to solidify him as the guy, contrary to how many coaches like to drag out the QB competition. He brought JJ McCarthy along slowly, increasing his game reps each week and preparing him for a moment like in the fourth quarter on Saturday, when McNamara was unavailable and needed to be medically cleared to return to the game. But in slippery conditions, McCarthy couldn’t hold onto the ball after pulling it from Blake Corum’s belly on a read option. Michigan State recovered, and Kenneth Walker raced in for the go-ahead score to ultimately seal Michigan’s fate.
Harbaugh could not have done anything more to prep McCarthy for that play. That’s how it goes, sometimes.
The seventh-year head coach didn’t do anything wrong in particular on Saturday. The only criticism you can lob at Harbaugh is that once again, he didn’t get it done in the big game. He is 3-9 against Michigan State and Ohio State now. And that’s simply not what he was hired to do. Michigan has certainly recalibrated its expectations, and Harbaugh has humbled himself, taking a pay cut in order to try to get this thing turned around, something few coaches would do. But at the end of the day, Michigan fans are left with that same feeling of dread, knowing that the Ohio State game is coming this month and that it’ll likely be another year before they can change the narrative.
If you’ve watched Michigan this season, you know it is certainly a top-10 team, whether all the Harbaugh haters want to admit it or not. I think there is a clear top-7 in college football right now (Georgia, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Alabama, Oklahoma, Oregon and Ohio State are how I would personally rank them right now). Even after this loss, Michigan is probably in that next tier, if not the next team along with Wake Forest.
How many of those teams do you think Michigan can beat? Oregon? Yeah. Oklahoma? Yup. Cincinnati? Sure.
But in order to make it far enough to actually get the chance to play one of those teams, Michigan will have to prove that it is actually the big brother. The Wolverines squandered that chance, even on a day in which they did almost everything right.
– – –
You’ve got to hand it to Mel Tucker. If there’s one conclusion you can draw from his tenure in East Lansing thus far, it’s that his team gets up for the biggest games. We saw it last year when the Spartans won in the Big House as 24-point underdogs. We saw it when they gave Northwestern its first loss. And we saw it again on Saturday. It’s the biggest characteristic missing from Harbaugh-coached Michigan teams.
Saturday was the fourth time that Michigan State has allowed more yards than it has gained. Is that a sustainable formula? Probably not. But whatever “it” is, Michigan State has it. Payton Thorne threw 2 early interceptions (though the first was basically a punt on third down) and battled back. This, in my mind, was the play of the game (with all due respect to Walker). Fourth-and-4, down 16 in the third quarter. All the momentum was on Michigan’s side, and he made a perfect throw to Jayden Reed for 28 yards down to the 1.
Michigan State absolutely needed this throw from Payton Thorne and he delivered a perfect ball.
Fourth-and-4. Down 16. Money. pic.twitter.com/cECqgt4gVk
— Colton Pouncy (@colton_pouncy) October 31, 2021
Speaking of Walker, he’s probably already punched his ticket to New York. He leads the country in rushing yards per game (149.3), is tied for third in rushing TDs (14) and is averaging nearly 7 yards per carry. There probably isn’t a more valuable player in the conference, or maybe even the country, than Walker, who has completely reversed the fortunes of one of the worst run teams in the conference the last few years.
Michigan State did a lot of great things, like going up-tempo to throw off Michigan’s defense and get them caught substituting while Thorne quickly snapped the ball. But at the end of the day, this game came down to Walker’s brilliance. He is as special of a player as there is in college football, and when he has a day like that, Michigan State can play with anyone.
Kenneth Walker III was turning heads in a Heisman-level performance against Michigan.
🟢 5 TD
🟢 197 YDSWOW 😤 pic.twitter.com/x9eVYVqx0z
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 30, 2021
A reminder that Ohio State can be beaten
No. 5 Ohio State 33, No. 20 Penn State 24. As Ohio State has rolled through some lower-level B1G teams the last month, a lot of their flaws have been cast aside, mainly on the defensive side of the ball.
So while we rush to congratulate Ohio State on its defensive improvements, a little perspective. Penn State’s 24 points — and it could have been 27 if not for a missed field goal late — tied for the most that it has scored in a Big Ten game. The Nittany Lions haven’t broken 30 against a Power 5 team this season. Penn State scored 18 points last week in 9 overtimes against Illinois.
It’s also worth pondering why Ohio State struggled to run the ball against a defense that surrendered 365 yards to Illinois’ top 2 running backs the previous week. The Buckeyes had just 19 rushing yards at half.
Even on a down day, Ohio State still produced 466 yards and kept CJ Stroud clean, for the most part. It helps that there are 4 Buckeyes liable to bust a big play at any given moment. I’m not sure if it’s possible to put together 60 minutes of great defense against a unit this talented.
He's just a freshman. 😨
TreVeyon Henderson breaks free to set up his 13th rushing TD of the season.@TreVeyonH4 // @OhioStateFB pic.twitter.com/z3cZJhAvuO
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) October 31, 2021
Credit where credit is due, no coach can put together a game plan for Ohio State like James Franklin. I know Franklin has been criticized up and down the last few weeks as Penn State has dropped 3 in a row to go from being ranked 4th to 22nd, but the guy should teach a master class on how to compete with the Buckeyes. Each of the last 6 meetings has been a 1- or 2-possession game.
Penn State obviously has some serious flaws, especially on the offensive line; it allowed 4 sacks and had just 33 rushing yards. But despite turning it over 3 times, Penn State was right there in the fourth quarter. If a team with as pronounced weaknesses as Penn State can give the Buckeyes a run for their money in Columbus, so too can Michigan State and Michigan.
Tough times in Lincoln
Purdue 28, Nebraska 23. A few thoughts on this game that all but assures Nebraska will miss a bowl for the fourth straight season under Scott Frost.
Yes, it counts as a 1-possession game (dropping Nebraska to 5-18 in such contests under Frost), but was it really? Nebraska was down double digits, scored with 2 minutes left and then Purdue kneeled the ball. It’s exactly like the Minnesota game 2 weeks prior when Nebraska was down 2 TDs, scored with 1:28 left and the game was over 3 plays later when Minnesota kneeled to run out the clock. Using this 1-possession games statistic feels dishonest in the last 2 Nebraska losses, because they weren’t even close to winning. They just happened to score twice when all the pressure was off.
Adrian Martinez, who went 14-of-29 for 269 yards with 2 TDs and 4 INTs, needs to play better. This should’ve been the 5th interception and the second pick-6.
#Huskers Adrian Martinez Catches a Break.
Omar Manning Leaks Out of the Formation, #Purdue DB Cam Allen Nearly Intercepts the Ball for a Likely Touchdown.
Ft. Husker Sports Radio🌽🚨 pic.twitter.com/GvP8MIHxwJ
— @DaltonEastNE (@DaltonEastNE) October 31, 2021
The play that stands out is near the end of the first half. Martinez had Samori Toure wide open for a walk-in 48-yard TD, but he misfired. It would’ve put Nebraska up 24-14 going into halftime.
Nebraska (3-6, 1-5) is in last place in the B1G West, and with Ohio State up next week, should officially be eliminated from bowl contention soon. Things just don’t seem to be getting better for Frost, and there isn’t much else to say about it.
Wait, which team was the West favorite?
Wisconsin 27, No. 9 Iowa 7. The result by itself is alarming enough for Hawkeyes fans. But more than that, it was striking just how unsurprising this score was. Iowa (6-2, 3-2) hasn’t played half-decent offense all season. Why would it start now against the No. 1-ranked defense in the country?
The lingering question during Iowa’s march to its No. 2 ranking a few weeks ago was what would happen if Iowa didn’t get 3 or 4 turnovers and actually had to play offense? Well, the Hawkeyes managed 1 first down in the first half against Wisconsin and are completely incapable of generating offense organically.
It’s striking to see Iowa field such a poor offensive line, especially with possibly the best center in the country, Tyler Linderbaum. Iowa allows a B1G-worst 8.3 tackles for loss per game. Against Wisconsin, it allowed 11.
With all due respect to Minnesota (6-2, 4-1), Wisconsin (5-3, 3-2) is the West favorite.
Iowa has dropped all the way from No. 2 to 19th after losing 2 straight, and at this rate, it won’t be in the Top 25 long.
Iowa and Penn State have prompted me to wonder if there has ever been an AP top-5 matchup in which both teams finished unranked.
Two! You won’t believe who was involved.
1984 Texas vs … Penn State
1959 Northwestern vs … Iowa— Matt Brown (@MattBrownCFB) October 30, 2021
MVPs
1. RB Kenneth Walker III (Michigan State)
Obviously, the guy who ran for 197 yards and 5 TDs is going to take the top spot.
2. QB Cade McNamara (Michigan)
He was sensational, hooking up with Andrel Anthony and Erick All with regularity. He threw for 383 yards and 2 TDs, with a late INT being his only blemish.
3. LB Jalen Graham (Purdue)
Graham made life miserable for Adrian Martinez, including this pick-6.
https://twitter.com/PFF_Anthony/status/1454697572975747077?s=20
4. RB TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)
You simply can’t contain Henderson for an entire game. The Buckeyes lean on him when they are struggling, as he had 28 carries for 152 yards and a score.
5. QB Taulia Tagovailoa (Maryland)
Tagovailoa needs to do this against better opponents, but throwing for 419 yards and 2 TDs against a good Indiana defense is still a day worth recognizing.