B1G picks: Predicting the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals

INDIANAPOLIS — The first full day of the Big Ten Tournament was great. A lot better than my predictions for Day 1, certainly.

Indiana opened things with the second-biggest comeback in Big Ten tourney history. Iowa set a new record for 3s in a B1G tournament game. Maryland was a missed 3-pointer from erasing a 12-point deficit in only 3 minutes. And 11th-seeded Penn State upset Ohio State to make it to Friday for the first time since 2018.

My picks went a mediocre 2-2, though I did close out with a bang by correctly calling Penn State’s win. So maybe that’s a harbinger of a perfect Friday.

No. 9 Indiana over No. 1 Illinois

Something strange happened at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Thursday afternoon. The building finally came to life, perhaps for the first time since the 2016 Big Ten Tournament.

That’s the last time the tourney was in this building outside of 2020’s preliminary round, after which the plug was pulled on the entire college basketball season. And considering that the Pacers haven’t made it out of the first round of the NBA playoffs in that time, there hasn’t been much reason to get wild.

Indiana provided it with its frenetic 17-point comeback win over Michigan. And this place is going to be alive again as the Hoosiers face Illinois.

This game still matters to Indiana, which ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has as his very last team in the field. I can’t say I agree with Lunardi’s analysis at all, as he has IU behind Notre Dame despite the Hoosiers having better metrics and beating the Fighting Irish head-to-head. But it sure does seem like a sign that nothing is sealed just yet for Indiana.

Beating Illinois would solve that problem. And with the Illini potentially letting their foot off the accelerator after a dramatic win over Iowa to clinch the Big Ten regular-season title, I smell an upset brewing.

No. 4 Rutgers over No. 5 Iowa

Am I a madman? Perhaps!

Iowa looked unstoppable in its first game, making a Big Ten Tournament record 19 3-pointers en route to a tourney-record 112 points.

And that makes what happened on Jan. 19 all the more stunning. The Scarlet Knights somehow limited the Hawkeyes to 46 points in a 48-46 victory.

Iowa star Keegan Murray made note of that performance after dropping 26 on Northwestern Thursday.

“I think it’s a team we only played once this year and we all felt it’s a game should have won at their place,” Murray said. “I feel like for us, we wanted this game, and we got it now.”

Something tells me that statement will not be well-received in the Rutgers locker room. And the Knights are already a feisty bunch in the first place.

No. 2 Wisconsin over No. 7 Michigan State

Without seeing how healthy Johnny Davis is, I have zero confidence in this prediction. If he’s limited in any way, the Spartans will win. But if he’s Johnny Davis, it should be enough to push Wisconsin over the top.

Other than having to face Davis, this is actually quite a good matchup for the Spartans. Michigan State’s turnover issues were on full display against Maryland, but Wisconsin is only 258th nationally in forcing turnovers.

This is very much a coin-flip game, as evidenced by the spread being set at 1.5 points in Wisconsin’s favor.

No. 3 Purdue over No. 11 Penn State

I had faith the Nittany Lions would make it this far, but that ends here.

Purdue won’t blow out Penn State the same way Iowa clobbered Northwestern, but this game may have a similar general feel. The Boilermakers are primed to make a run to the title game, and Penn State will play the unfortunate role of speed bump in the quarterfinals.