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It’s simple, really.
My power rankings come down to an overarching criteria. If I was betting on a team to win a given game tomorrow, here’s who I’d have the most confidence betting on. Sure, head-to-head is taken into account, as are obvious things like records and rankings.
But “who would I bet on to win a game tomorrow” is the basic principle attached to my rankings. As we begin a new football season, I figured it was an important time to make sure that’s known.
That means I don’t necessarily base this on “where I think they’ll end up.” In my opinion, power rankings shouldn’t take future strength of schedule into account.
Keep that in mind as you pick these apart.
14. Illinois
There’s a Luke Bryan song out right now called “Sunrise, Sunburn, Sunset” and then there’s a “repeat” line at the end. Yes, it’s exactly what you’d think it is. I was thinking of a remix for Illinois after it failed to win a conference game last year. “Freshmen, frustrate, free-fall, repeat.”
13. Rutgers
Two things are preventing me from giving Rutgers more preseason love after it took a nice step up from the doormat it was in 2016. One is the quarterback situation. It’s hard to put much confidence in a team when you don’t know the direction it wants to go at the game’s most important position. The other is this credit card fraud investigation. If we’re talking about key players getting suspended or even kicked off the team, that’s significant. It could prevent the Scarlet Knights from taking another step up in Year 3 of the Chris Ash era.
12. Minnesota
You knew that Year 1 was going to be rough for P.J. Fleck because the Gophers lost a ton of production from that 2016 team. I think a postseason berth would’ve been tremendously beneficial for a young team like Minnesota. Instead, the Gophers were stuck on 5 wins after getting shut out by a combined 70-0 in their final 2 games.
Rodney Smith is a star and the defense should improve, but again, without a clear vision of the quarterback situation, it’s hard to put a ton of stock in Minnesota right now.
11. Maryland
D.J. Moore could wind up being the most significant loss felt for a B1G team. I’m not sure who steps in and produces anywhere near the level he did. Fortunately, Maryland can’t possibly be as decimated at the quarterback position as it was last year (I think?). Couple that with a new offensive coordinator in Matt Canada and a loaded backfield of Ty Johnson, Lorenzo Harrison and Anthony McFarland and this offense should fare better than it did last year. Still, there are question marks galore on DJ Durkin’s defense, which allowed 39 points per B1G game last year.
10. Indiana
Starting to sense a theme with my teams ranked in the back half? We have no idea what that quarterback situation will be. How quickly things have changed under Tom Allen to where now it seems like all the questions are on the offensive side and the defense is a given to be one of the B1G’s better units. Still, we’re talking about a team that’s No. 119 in percentage of returning production, which doesn’t bode well in arguably the toughest division in America.
9. Nebraska
Again, this isn’t a schedule thing. This is knowing how much work it’s going to take to turn around the 4-win mess that Mike Riley left. Is there still talent there? Absolutely. Nearly every key offensive player (sans experienced quarterbacks) came back to play for Scott Frost. Will Frost rebuild Nebraska? I believe he will. Is that defense, which finished No. 115, suddenly going to be average with an offensive-minded coach? I doubt it. Patience is a virtue, Husker fans.
8. Northwestern
I know that Northwestern has this winning streak entering 2018. I also know that Northwestern doesn’t have Justin Jackson, and Clayton Thorson’s knee is still a big question mark. As good as the Cats were down the stretch last year, I question how that offense is going to move the ball even if Thorson is healthy. Northwestern has been so Jackson-dependent for so long that it’s difficult to envision what the offense will look like, though returning 4 starting offensive linemen helps. I have a feeling Pat Fitzgerald’s defense will have some heavy lifting to do in 2018.
7. Purdue
If Purdue didn’t rank No. 125 in percentage of returning production, I’d feel even better about the Boilermakers. I do trust defensive coordinator Nick Holt, who didn’t get enough credit for the job he did overhauling that unit last year.
I’m all in on Jeff Brohm and Elijah Sindelar, though. I think this has potential to be a special offense that’ll hang with plenty of elite B1G foes in Year 2.
6. Iowa
It seems like Iowa cranks out a Josey Jewell every few years, but it shouldn’t be understated how big of a loss he was. Fortunately, the Hawkeyes are loaded on the defensive line so they should still be able to stop the run. Iowa’s ceiling will be determined by Nate Stanley’s progression. If he turns into a top-25 quarterback in the country, Iowa becomes a much more legitimate threat to Wisconsin in the B1G West. If he doesn’t, this has the makings of a 7-8 win team that we’re plenty familiar with in the Kirk Ferentz era.
5. Penn State
I might catch some heat for this, but I’m not as high on the Lions as others are. Unlike Colin Cowherd, I don’t think that the year they lose Joe Moorhead, Saquon Barkley, Mike Gesicki and DaeSean Hamilton is when they make their first Playoff appearance. As much as I believe in Trace McSorley, I just think the margin for error in the B1G East is so slim. I’d have the Lions as more of a 15-20 team instead of the 9-12 team as they’re being pegged as in the preseason.
4. Michigan State
Before you jump all over me for not having MSU ranked ahead of Michigan, let me at least explain myself. I get that nobody has more returning production than the Spartans. That’s why they’re not at No. 7 or No. 8 on this list. But I’m skeptical about them because I fear regression could be in store.
Every single non-Rutgers B1G game that MSU won last year was by 10 points or less. Going 6-1 in those tight games — and getting blown out by Ohio State — has me a little skeptical that MSU overachieved. Maybe I’ll be wrong, but that’s why I can’t quite get there with MSU as a preseason Playoff contender.
3. Michigan
Cover your eyes, MSU fans. You won’t like this. Yes, I’m buying the Shea Patterson hype. I’ve been amazed that some are still holding onto a belief that Brandon Peters will be the guy. Patterson is a game-changer, and I think Michigan’s offense is significantly better with him running it tomorrow. Also, this.
Thing that I haven't seen talked about very much: Michigan returns 83% of its defensive production from a unit that ranked No. 3 in yards allowed in 2017.
— Connor O'Gara (@cjogara) May 17, 2018
2. Ohio State
This is with or without Meyer. The Buckeyes are still extremely talented and capable of competing for a Playoff spot. Let’s not forget that they could have a top-3 player on offense (J.K. Dobbins) and a top-1 player on defense (Nick Bosa). As frustratingly inconsistent as the Buckeyes were for an elite team, they still won a B1G Championship and a New Year’s Six bowl. The expectations are there, and the experienced coaching staff is capable of weathering the storm. But I’m sticking with what I wrote back in February.
1. Wisconsin
This doesn’t have anything to do with the Meyer stuff. I’m doubling down on what I wrote back in February about having more confidence in Wisconsin than Ohio State in 2018. I can’t shake the feeling that Wisconsin is going to have a historic year running the ball with Jonathan Taylor running behind the same offensive line from 2017. I think people are sleeping on the talent Wisconsin has at receiver, especially Danny Davis. Wisconsin won 13 games and a New Year’s Six bowl with Alex Hornibrook throwing 15 interceptions, a number that I trust to drop with Paul Chryst. And oh, I’m plenty confident in Jim Leonhard’s defense being one of the nation’s best again.
I’m all in on Wisconsin. Pun intended.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Tradition. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.