B1G QB rankings entering Week 1: Assessing opening day outlooks for the 14 presumed starters
No Big Ten teams played in Week 0, and we’ve already done a preseason ranking of the league’s quarterbacks, and also assessed their upsides and downsides.
But it’s game week, and just like the teams, we here at Saturday Tradition have a routine. Ranking the quarterbacks happens on Tuesdays.
The order remains the same, but now we’re going assess Game 1 outlooks, based on opponent, and project if each quarterback is more likely to climb or fall on this list 7 days hence.
All 14 B1G teams will be in action between Thursday night and Sunday afternoon, with 3 league games dotting the schedule. If nothing else, we’ll find out the actual starters for teams that haven’t made announcements yet. With a bunch of newbies and first-year transfers in the mix, major shakeups to these rankings are to be expected during the first month of the season.
Here’s where we’re at now, going from No. 14 down to No. 1, with each guy’s Week 1 outlook (all times Eastern):
14. Gavin Wimsatt, Rutgers
2022: 757 yards, 44.8%, 5 TDs, 7 INTs, 90.4 rating
Week 1: vs. Northwestern, noon Sunday, CBS
The Scarlet Knights are favored by 7, but not because of Wimsatt, who completed 44.8% of his passes last year with more INTs (7) than TDs (5). If Wimsatt can help the running game, protect the ball, complete half his passes and otherwise trust the defense, new OC Kirk Ciarrocca will be happy. That should be enough to down the Wildcats, still reeling in the wake of a hazing scandal. Outlook: Neutral
13. Tayven Jackson, Indiana
2022 (at Tennessee): 37 yards, 75%, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 152.7 rating
Week 1: vs. Ohio State, 3:30 Saturday, CBS
Welcome to the B1G. Jackson went 3-for-4 passing as a true freshman at Tennessee. Now he’s being ask to lead an offense against the No. 3 team in the country with way less talent around him than he had with the Volunteers. Making a starting debut with a 29.5-point underdog is no fun. Outlook: Very negative
12. Ben Bryant, Northwestern
2022 (at Cincinnati): 2,731 yards, 61.2%, 21 TDs, 7 INTs, 143.0 rating
Week 1: at Rutgers, noon Sunday, CBS
As a 6th-year senior, Bryant is the better and more experienced quarterback in the matchup. But Rutgers has the better defense, with a strong secondary. A decent performance, especially in a win, would boost Bryant’s stock. He was 9-2 with the Bearcats last year before getting injured, so there is hope — at least in this game. Outlook: Neutral
11. Luke Altmyer, Illinois
2022 (at Ole Miss): 125 yards, 47.1%, 2 TDs, INT, 135.9 rating
Week 1: vs. Toledo, 7:30 Saturday, BTN
Toledo fielded the best defense in the MAC last season, and might do so again. This could be a low-scoring slugfest, which the Illini can live with given that their defense was best in the country and returns much of the front 7. That scenario will put the reins on the inexperienced Altmyer. The stats won’t necessarily be good or bad, just minimal. Outlook: Neutral
10. Noah Kim, Michigan State
2022: 174 yards, 73.7%, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 202.7 rating
Week 1: vs. Central Michigan, 7 p.m. Friday, FS1
Kim, a 3-star 2020 recruit, made the most of sparse opportunity behind Payton Thorne last year. With Thorne now at Auburn, Kim will get his 1st start assuming Mel Tucker doesn’t opt for a younger, greener 4-star option, of which he has 2. With the Spartans favored by 2 TDs, Kim — or whomever starts — could make a positive impression to open 2023. Outlook: Positive
9. Athan Kaliakmanis, Minnesota
2022: 946 yards, 54.1%, 3 TDs, 4 INTs, 127.4 rating
Week 1: vs. Nebraska, 8 p.m. Thursday, FOX
Assessing the strength of Nebraska’s defense is no easy task in Year 1 under Matt Rhule. The Gophers are favored by a touchdown, and Kaliakmanis, who made 5 starts last year, might have to throw more now that Mo Ibrahim is no longer in the backfield. PJ Fleck has suggested as much, so the 6-4, 215-pound former 4-star recruit has a great shot to start strong in the B1G opener. Outlook: Positive
8. Jeff Sims, Nebraska
2022 (at Georgia Tech): 1,115 yards, 58.5%, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 113.9 rating
Week 1: at Minnesota, 8 p.m. Thursday, FOX
With 23 starts over 3 seasons for the Yellow Jackets, Sims shouldn’t be overwhelmed by the moment in his B1G debut. But given Minnesota’s strong secondary, he’ll probably have to show off his dual threat skills to lead the Huskers to an upset victory. That would impress us, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility. Outlook: Neutral
7. Cade McNamara, Iowa
2022 (at Michigan): 180 yards, 56%, 1 TD, 1 INT, 121.7 ranking
Week 1: vs. Utah State, noon Saturday, FS1
Assuming his leg muscle injury heals in time, the ex-Wolverine should put up efficient numbers against a 25.5-point underdog. Joe Labas is the No. 2, according to Iowa’s recently released depth chart. Outlook: Positive
6. Hudson Card, Purdue
2022 (at Texas): 928 yards, 69.4%, 6 TDs, 1 INT, 158.1 rating
Week 1: vs. Fresno State, noon Saturday, BTN
Card, who made 5 starts over the past 2 seasons as a Longhorn, should get a chance to sling it in this one, even with Purdue hoping to find more balance this year under new coach Ryan Walters. With the game expected to be close, Card could generate some buzz with a strong outing. Outlook: Positive
5. Drew Allar, Penn State
2022: 344 yards, 58.3%, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, 128.5 rating
Week 1: vs. West Virginia, 7:30 Saturday, NBC
In his first start, Allar gets a chance to live up to the 5-star hype against a defense that gave up a lot of points last year and doesn’t look appreciatively better this year. He might not get to chuck it a lot if Penn State can dominate on the ground, which it probably can. An efficient game under the lights in front of nearly 110,000 fans would make a statement. Outlook: Positive
4. Kyle McCord, Ohio State
2022: 190 yards, 80.0%, 1 TDs, 0 INTs, 176.3 rating
Week 1: at Indiana, 3:30 Saturday, CBS
McCord has faced tougher challenges in practice, both against the Buckeyes defense and trying to hold off Devin Brown for the starting job left open by CJ Stroud’s exit to the NFL. Both guys should post monster numbers in this one. It’s just a question of who gets to do so in the first half. An OSU quarterback could easily ascend to the top of this list in short order. Outlook: Very positive
3. Tanner Mordecai, Wisconsin
2022 (at SMU): 3,524 yards, 65%, 33 TDs, 10 INTs, 151.9 rating
Week 1: vs. Buffalo, 3:30 Saturday, FS1
Mordecai will have an enthralling debut in Madison. Having put up monster numbers 2 straight seasons at SMU, he’s going to thrive in new OC Phil Longo’s wide-open offense — especially against the 4-TD underdog Bulls. Outlook: Very positive
2. Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland
2022: 3,008 yards, 67%, 18 TDs, 8 INTs, 142.7 rating
Week 1: vs. Towson, 3:30 Saturday, BTN
The Terps tend to run it up against FCS schools, most recently beating Howard 62-0 in 2021 as Tagovailoa went 22-of-27 for 274 yards and 3 TDs. Like that game, the only thing tamping down the veteran QB’s stats will be an early exit. Outlook: Very positive
1. JJ McCarthy, Michigan
2022: 2,719 yards, 64.6%, 22 TDs, 5 INTs, 155.0 rating
Week 1: vs. East Carolina, noon Saturday, Peacock
The junior should be on auto-pilot for the season’s first 3 weeks, including against the 5-TD underdog Pirates. If bored, entertain yourself guessing the order in which the backups will follow McCarthy from among Jack Tuttle, Davis Warren and Alex Orji. Outlook: Very positive