As Big Ten teams wrap up their final nonconference games this weekend before the resumption of league play on Monday, let’s take a look at where the 14 teams stand in their quests to make the NCAA Tournament this spring.

Purdue is in, barring some sort of catastrophic event (and those only happen to the Boilermakers after the tourney has begun). Illinois would seem to be as well, assuming an off-the-court issue and loss — perhaps temporarily but probably not — of its star player doesn’t derail a promising season.

But what of the rest?

Locked in

Purdue: The Boilermakers are an overtime short of being perfect. Still, there’s no shame in an 11-1 record (1-1 in the Big Ten) as the calendar nears 2024. Purdue is not only the clear favorite to repeat as Big Ten regular-season and tournament champs but to reclaim a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, thanks to continued dominance of Zach Edey and the emergence of Braden Smith. Purdue sits No. 4 in the Net Rankings, with more Quad 1 wins (5) than anyone else in the country, so it looks great right now. Of course, what happens in March will have to wait until March.

Illinois: Until this week, The Fighting Illini were poised to be the biggest threat to the Boilermakers in Purdue’s quest for another Big Ten crown. But that’s taken a major hit, with the indefinite suspension of All-America guard Terrence Shannon, who was arrested in Lawrence, Kansas on Thursday on a rape charge stemming from an alleged incident there in early September. Sitting aside the seriousness of the allegations for a moment, Illinois as a basketball team is severely hampered without the dynamic scorer. It’s still likely a go for the NCAA Tournament, with an early-season résumé that has it No. 10 in the Net with a 9-2 record, but the ceiling is significantly lower.

Trending well

Wisconsin: These Badgers feel like a traditional throw-back Wisconsin squad, one that plays hard-nosed defense and values possessions, plus it has just enough offense to make it all work. St. John’s transfer AJ Storr has been a revelation, averaging a team-best 15 points per game, almost double his All-Big East Freshman season a year ago. The Badgers are 14th in the Net Rankings, with an impressive 3-3 mark vs. opponents in Quad 1, with the biggest win coming against then-No. 3 Marquette.

Ohio State: The Buckeyes’ résumé might be one of the best examples in a flaw in the Net Rankings system, as Ohio State is No. 28 in the country, yet doesn’t have much to brag about in terms of quality wins. Nine of its 10 victories are Quads 3 or 4, as the Buckeyes are 1-2 vs. the upper echelon. It proves that winning games, against anyone, does matter. But Ohio State has good personnel, with Bruce Thornton and Jamison Battle, among others, that make one think the Buckeyes can pick up more quality wins given the opportunity, and they’ll get that in the Big Ten.

Work to do

Michigan State: The preseason No. 4 (in the country) hasn’t lived up to the billing, with only a 7-5 record toward the end of the calendar year. Still, the Spartans have a Net ranking of 36, because they are 2-4 vs. Quads 1 and 2. As is always the case with Tom Izzo MSU teams, Sparty doesn’t shy away from early-season competition; generally, that has paid off come March. Will it again this year? That might be up to the development of Michigan State’s interior production, which was supposed to be improved this season but is still a sore spot. Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard and Co., can only take MSU so far.

Northwestern: The Wildcats have a gigantic win on their résumé, knocking off Purdue in overtime in an early December Big Ten game. Unfortunately, however, that’s been about it at this point, and is a reason Northwestern’s Net ranking is only 70. The Wildcats somewhat negated the big win with a bad loss, dropping a home buy game to sub-.500 Chicago State. Yes, Boo Buie has been great, at times at an All-America level. But he needs consistent help, especially on the interior, and NU just doesn’t provide much.

Nebraska: If the NCAA Tournament started today, the Cornhuskers would be firmly on the bubble, but that’s saying a lot more positive than recent years at this time of the season. At least Fred Hoiberg’s squad has positioned itself at a run for the Dance, with a 10-2 record and Net of 62. If the Cornhuskers can end up at least .500 in Big Ten play, assuming that comes with Q1 Ws, then they’ll end up on the good side of the bubble. And everyone would love to see Keisei Tominaga light up an early-round opponent in March.

Indiana: The Hoosiers enter the final few days of 2023 with a 9-3 record, so that’s a solid start. But their Net is only 102, and that’s not. IU’s problem isn’t that it hasn’t played anyone, it’s that the Hoosiers haven’t beaten them, with only a 1-3 record vs. Q1. And frankly, aside from the 4-point home loss to Kansas, IU has gotten smoked against the better non-conference opponents on its schedule (20 points to UConn and 28 to Auburn). There’s a like to like about Indiana’s front court, with the emergence of Malik Reneau and the arrival of Kel’el Ware, but IU continues to shoot poorly from the perimeter — just a tick above 30% — and the continued absence of point guard Xavier Johnson is concerning.

Maryland: Many thought the Terps would take another step forward this season, perhaps even challenge Purdue at the top of the Big Ten. But not many anticipated that they would struggle so mightily to shoot, but that’s been the case, as Maryland’s making only 41.5% of its field goal attempts (and only 27.5% from 3-point range). Still, the Terps have a 9-4 record, but not much to show for it, with all of the victories being against Q3 and 4 opponents. That equates to a Net Ranking of only 116. Now, Jahmir Young and Co., get Purdue at home Monday; perhaps a chance to make a move.

Rutgers: Jersey Mike’s will provide the Scarlet Knights with a gigantic advantage, so perhaps Rutgers can pick up big victories in the conference season. It’ll need them, because Rutgers exits 2023 with a 7-4 record and a Net of only 84. The problem? The Scarlet Knights’ guard play has been spotty at best, a major reason why they’re struggling to score. And a team can win only so many games by turning them into wrestling matches. More help is on the way, but that’s next season and beyond. As for this year? Rutgers might not get back to the Dance.

Maybe next year?

Minnesota: The Gophers have been a pleasant surprise in the Big Ten, in that they are 9-3 with a Net of 88. But 8 of their 9 victories have come against Quad 4 opponents, so there’s not much meat to the résumé. And Minnesota has been here before, with a seemingly decent non-conference that’s followed only by a sub-standard league performance. Will it happen again? If so, it’ll be yet another no-go in March. Forward Dawson Garcia leads an offense that has looked great against lower-divisions opponents, but will it translate to the Big Ten?

Michigan: Even with a record of only 6-6, Michigan has probably performed better than anticipated, and its Net Ranking of 65 keeps it in the bubble conversation, at least in the months before Selection Sunday. But the Wolverines will have to finish above .500 in conference play and that seems like it might be quite the undertaking. Maybe Juwan Howard’s return to the sideline will provide a spark, but only if everyone is pulling the same direction. We’ll see.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes are 7-5 with a Net in the mid-60s, but some of its performances against better competition have left viewers with a lot of questions. Iowa was blown out by Purdue and Iowa State, and lost by double-digits to Michigan. It’s already 0-2 in league play. This Iowa team isn’t able to outscore opponents in a transition game and it’s not equipped to play defense in the half court. Not a good recipe.

Penn State: First-year coach Mike Rhoades knew he’d face a challenge in Year 1 in Happy Valley and he has, with the Nittany Lions at 6-6 with a Net Ranking of only 130. If he can keep Penn State competitive in the conference season, then the program will score that as a victory. But the NCAA Tournament is far off.