The B1G’s first-year head coaches are running out of chances to earn a bowl bid

A standard unit of measurement doesn’t exist to gauge the success of a coach in his first year at a program. Each situation has its own unique challenges.

Expectation levels varied for Tom Allen (Indiana), P.J. Fleck (Minnesota) and Jeff Brohm (Purdue) when they walked into their respective positions. Scenarios were different at each program and there was very little comparison between the three newest members of the B1G.

Now, as the calendar turns to November and we enter the final month of the season, Allen, Fleck and Brohm all share the same scenario: the opportunity for bowl eligibility is slipping away.

With one final four-game stretch remaining this year, none of the three teams have hit that six-win mark to secure bowl eligibility. Really, none are even on the verge of clinching a postseason berth right now. Minnesota is the closest, sitting at 4-4 on year, while Indiana and Purdue are both a game behind at 3-5.

That’s not exactly knocking on the door of a postseason bid.

And when you look at the remaining schedules for each program, it’s not exactly a promising sign. The Gophers need just two wins, yes, but the final stretch might be the toughest of their season as Michigan, Northwestern and Wisconsin still remain. The Hoosiers and the Boilermakers would each need to win three of their last four games.

Team	Remaining Schedule	Opponent Record
Indiana (3-5, 0-5)	vs. No. 9 Wisconsin	8-0 (5-0)
	@ Illinois	2-6 (0-5)
	vs. Rutgers	3-5 (2-3)
	@ Purdue	3-5 (1-4)
Minnesota (4-4, 1-4)	@ Michigan	6-2 (3-2)
	vs. Nebraska	4-4 (1-4)
	@ Northwestern	5-3 (3-2)
	vs. No. 9 Wisconsin	8-0 (5-0)
Purdue (3-5, 1-4)	vs. Illinois	2-6 (0-5)
	@ Northwestern	5-3 (3-2)
	@ Iowa	5-3 (2-3)
	vs. Indiana	3-5 (0-5)

Reaching the postseason obviously isn’t the result that matters in the first year of a head coaching job, though it does grow in importance and significance with each season. So, does it even really matter if Indiana, Minnesota or Purdue play in a 13th game this season?

It does — at least it should — for Allen and Fleck.

Brohm and Purdue can kind of be eliminated from the equation. Before the season started, there was no expectation whatsoever that the Boilermakers would be even this close to bowl eligibility, especially after dwelling in the college football cellar each of the last four seasons.  It wasn’t until a 3-2 start that thoughts of a postseason bid worked to the forefront of anyone’s mind.

While it would definitely prove that Brohm and Purdue are ahead of schedule, falling short of that six-win mark isn’t going to be a disappointment. The Boilermakers are just happy to be competitive again.

That’s not the case at Indiana or Minnesota.

The Hoosiers were coming off back-to-back bowl appearances when Allen took over for Kevin Wilson at the end of the 2016 campaign. Indiana wasn’t skyrocketing to the top of the B1G, but the program was gradually improving on a yearly basis. In order to sustain that momentum, Allen really needs to get the cream and crimson back into the postseason, even if it’s just a bottom-of-the-barrel bid.

Allen’s first season has already been somewhat of a disappointment. The Hoosiers haven’t been able to notch an upset win despite multiple opportunities, have been throttled by injuries to key contributors and haven’t had any success in the B1G. Prior to kickoff in August, many believed this could be an eight-win team. Now, it seems like bowl eligibility is the only way to salvage this once-promising season.

For a school like Indiana — which has had such little success on the gridiron in its history –stringing together three consecutive bowl appearances would validate the image that the program is developing consistency and could, eventually, be a contender in the East.

It’s a similar situation up in Minneapolis for Fleck.

When Fleck signed on the dotted line to become the next head coach at Minnesota, it was assumed the Gophers would have instant success. Fleck was one of the hottest coaching names available and Minnesota was a team loaded with talent at the skill positions.

Some predicted the Gophers would actually be a perfect 8-0 at this point in the season and could be Wisconsin’s biggest challenger in the West. But after losing four of its first five B1G games — four by a touchdown or less — Minnesota is just hoping it can scrounge up two more victories against a brutal schedule.

Fleck has said recently that bowl eligibility isn’t his primary focus, especially in his first season. His goals are much, much bigger. So maybe it’s not a huge deal if the Gophers fall short of that six-win mark this season. But it sure would leave a lot of question marks around the program heading into 2018.

Maybe all of this matters, and maybe it doesn’t. Regardless, all three coaches are in the same situation, and that’s unique.

Collectively, Indiana, Minnesota and Purdue need to win eight of their final 12 games for all to punch their ticket to the postseason. The Gophers need the fewest wins but the Hoosiers have the easiest schedule. The Boilermakers are wildcards.

While there’s still some hope that Allen, Fleck or Brohm can figure something out and lead their teams to a bowl berth, time is rapidly running out, and it’s becoming more and more likely that none of the first-year head coaches will win six games this season.

That’s not something anyone expected to happen.

Dustin Schutte

Dustin grew up in the heart of Big Ten country and has been in sports media since 2010. He has been covering Big Ten football since 2014. You can follow him on Twitter: @SchutteCFB