Betting Stuff: Best bets for Week 1 of the 2024 college football season

Week 1 of the 2024 college football season is here. The long wait is over, and now it’s time to kiss the family goodbye for the next 4 months.

This weekend’s slate is stuffed with FCS vs. FBS games, but it also has just enough good-on-good matchups to keep us in front of the TV all day. In total, there are 21 games on Thursday, 6 games on Friday, 67 games on Saturday, 1 game on Sunday, and 1 game on Monday.

Here are my best bets for the opening weekend.

Over 62.5 total points in Oregon-Idaho (-110 via DraftKings)

In 2 seasons under Dan Lanning, Oregon has faced a non-Power 5 team 5 times. The Ducks are 5-0 with an average margin of victory of 47 points. The Ducks have outscored those 5 teams 58-11, on average. Unless they’re facing Georgia in an opener, Oregon is going to score a truckload of points; that has been the trend under Lanning.

The Ducks demolished Portland State a year ago, 81-7, and they blasted Hawaii at home. Against another FCS squad that will enter with a gargantuan talent disadvantage, the Ducks might put 63 points on the board by themselves.

They have an experienced quarterback who fits like a glove in offensive coordinator Will Stein’s scheme. They have cohesion along a talented offensive line, a full stable of running backs, a loaded receiver room, a veteran tight end, and the most talented defense Lanning has had yet.

Even if Oregon pulls its starters early in the third quarter, backup quarterback Dante Moore (a former 5-star) will be throwing to Jurrion Dickey (a former 5-star). The talent in Eugene is impressive.

Texas A&M -1.5 in the first half vs. Notre Dame (-108 via DraftKings)

Notre Dame is starting true freshman Anthonie Knapp at left tackle for its game against Texas A&M this weekend. Knapp enters the lineup following Charles Jagusah’s season-ending injury during fall camp. Next to Knapp, sophomore Sam Pendleton will start at left guard after beating out Rocco Spindler for the job.

That means that Notre Dame’s entire starting offensive line will face Texas A&M with a combined 6 starts under their belt.

Knapp will be making his collegiate debut. Per PFF, Pendleton has played 15 career snaps on offense. Center Ashton Craig, a redshirt sophomore, did not appear in a game his first year and played sparingly last season before entering the starting lineup for the final 3 games. The same can be said for right guard Billy Schrauth. Right tackle Aamil Wagner has only played 52 snaps in his 2-year career thus far.

Texas A&M is starting Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart at defensive end. Shemar Turner and DJ Hicks are the starting defensive tackles. Cashius Howell will start at the Jack position.

Those 5 players had a combined 151 quarterback pressures and 28 quarterback sacks last season.

It’s not so much the starts that are concerning for Notre Dame, it’s the overall lack of experience. If these were fourth-year players who had developed in the Notre Dame weight room for several years, backed up starters, and gotten some seasoning, the lack of starts wouldn’t matter as much. But these are first-, second-, and third-year guys who have barely seen the field. Add in the bonus A&M is sure to receive from playing in front of Kyle Field and I think it will take an uncomfortable amount of time for Notre Dame to find its footing in this game on offense.

Minnesota moneyline vs. North Carolina (+105 via Caesars)

Simply put, I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Minnesota’s defensive backslide last season was unexpected. Carolina hasn’t been good enough on defense for years under Mack Brown. The Minnesota defense returns plenty while the new coordinator (Corey Hetherman) is streamlining things. The Carolina defense is learning a new system under Brown’s third DC in 4 years (Geoff Collins). Minnesota welcomes a Walter Payton Award finalist to town to quarterback the team. Carolina is still not sure which of its 2 quarterbacks gives it the best chance to win.

Maybe UNC has the best player on the field (tailback Omarion Hampton), but the Gophers have a top-25 defense in SP+ to open the season.

With running back Darius Taylor and quarterback Max Brosmer, a hulking offensive line with experience, and a strong receiving option in Daniel Jackson, the pieces are there for this offense. Brosmer threw for nearly 9,000 yards and 70 touchdowns as the starting quarterback at New Hampshire.

It’s not clear if North Carolina knows what it is in the post-Drake Maye era. Brown has 2 quarterbacks who give him different looks and an offensive line that had to be rebuilt from scratch this offseason.

With so much turnover on the Tar Heel sideline, going on the road to face another Power conference opponent in Week 1 is a tough ask. Minnesota, it should also be mentioned, should come out with some urgency after last year’s 6-7 campaign. Once nonconference play ends, the Gophers face 3 straight ranked opponents.