I gave my thoughts on the Week 11 schedule earlier this week. Here are the games I’m targeting in Week 11.

(As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred Michigan sports betting apps.)

  • Last week’s record: 1-3
  • Overall season record: 19-22

Indiana -14.5 vs. Michigan (-105 via BetMGM)

This is not the week to fade the Hoosiers, because this is not the week we learn if Indiana is actually good. That’s next week. Michigan, we know, is not good. Michigan is 76th in net adjusted EPA per play, per Game on Paper. Indiana ranks fourth nationally in that category. The Hoosiers are mauling bad and average teams alike. Michigan was missing both of its starting corners for the Oregon game and if they’re limited against Indiana, the U-M defense is in trouble. Indiana is No. 1 in the FBS in EPA per dropback and No. 18 in rushing success rate. The Hoosiers are second nationally in early-downs EPA, per College Football Insiders. They’ve been one of the best first-quarter teams in all of college football, and I don’t buy that Indiana will be looking ahead. As poor as Michigan has been this season, that block M still means something and I expect Curt Cignetti’s crew will want to make a statement.

BYU -2.5 at Utah (-122 via FanDuel)

Rice-Eccles Stadium is a special environment. Particularly at night. Recent history suggests BYU could be on upset watch this weekend in the latest entry in the Holy War. For a Utah team that has been a major disappointment, the prospect of spoiling BYU’s unbeaten season turns this game into the Utes’ Super Bowl. Plus, BYU has been bad as a favorite in this matchup over the last 2 decades.

And while it’s fair to call some of BYU’s exploits this season flukey, it’s also fair to say the Cougars have punished teams for sloppy play. Utah is sloppy. I just can’t get this offense, which doesn’t do anything particularly well enough to make up for all it does wrong. Utah can’t stop the run, can’t rely on its special teams, and will either be throwing out a true freshman quarterback with 8 picks in 5 starts or a third-year guy with 15 career pass attempts. Getting 2.5 points in this game is a gift.

James Madison team total over 33.5 points (-150 via DraftKings)

Georgia State has one of the worst defenses in the country, and James Madison has shown an ability to blow up the scoreboard. The Dukes put 70 on North Carolina, then followed that performance up with 63 points against Ball State. They scored 39 on Coastal Carolina and 32 in Week 9 in a 17-point win over Southern Miss. The Dukes rank 14th nationally in net adjusted EPA per play, while the Panthers rank 107th. The Dukes have the best turnover margin in the country (plus-17) because they lead the FBS in takeaways (23). They stop opposing offenses before they get going, which means an offense with advantages already could have short fields to work with. Georgia State has given up 30 points in 6 of its 8 games this season, and James Madison is coming in with extra rest after a bye week last weekend.

Tulane-Temple over 49.5 total points (-108 via DraftKings)

Tulane is 5-0 in conference play this season and has only suffered losses to Power conference schools (Kansas State, Oklahoma). Temple has lost 3 of its last 4 and is giving up 35.4 points per game on the season. During its 6-game winning streak, Tulane has been on a scoring bender, averaging 43 points a game. Tailback Makhi Hughes has been a key fixture throughout, with 571 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns in his last 4 games while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Temple is among the poorest run defenses in the country by efficiency, allowing 5.1 yards per carry to opposing tailbacks, and it ranks 86th in EPA per run faced (per Game on Paper). Tulane could score 49 points all on its own. The Green Wave throttled back last week in a 34-3 win over Charlotte. The week prior, their game against North Texas saw 82 combined points hit the scoreboard. They scored 71 on UAB earlier this season, put 45 on South Florida and 41 on Louisiana.

Ole Miss moneyline vs. Georgia (+126 via Caesars)

The Ole Miss defense leads the nation in havoc rate, per Game on Paper. They also lead the nation in raw yards per carry allowed to opposing offenses. Opponents have gained just 2.3 yards per carry against the Rebels’ front. And teams have only found the endzone 4 times on the ground this season against Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin built the front 7 this offseason with a singular goal in mind: Beat Georgia. Suntarine Perkins is tied for the SEC lead with 12.5 tackles for loss this season. Three other Mississippi defenders have at least 10 TFLs each. If Georgia can’t run the ball or find early-down success, the game gets put on Carson Beck’s shoulders. That has resulted in nothing but trouble this season for Georgia. And after the secondary got shredded in late September and early October, Georgia has fared well against the last 2 passing attacks it has faced. The Ole Miss passing attack is better. Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins are both doubtful for the game, but a quarter of the Ole Miss roster is on the midweek availability report, so I’m not sure how much stock should be put into it. More than anything, though, this is a desperation spot for Ole Miss. The Rebels believe they’re one of the best teams in the country. They might not be wrong. But their Playoff dreams die with a third loss. Georgia can afford a second.