I closed out the regular season with a .544 mark in Opening Thoughts and a .536 mark on my Friday ATS picks. And yet… This column posted a losing record across the regular season. So it goes.

I gave my thoughts on the slate of conference championship games earlier this week. Here are the games I’m targeting in Week 15

(As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred Ohio betting apps.)

  • Last week’s record: 3-2
  • Overall season record: 29-32

UNLV +4.5 at Boise State (-110 via Caesars)

UNLV is the only defense to have slowed down Ashton Jeanty this season. And the Rebels didn’t just slow him down, they made him look like a normal running back and not the superhero he actually is. Jeanty averaged 3.9 yards per carry against the Rebels. He has been at or above 6 yards per tote in 9 of his 12 games so far, and has only been held under 5 yards per carry twice all year.

But Boise’s isn’t the only ground game UNLV has stymied this season. Of the 11 FBS teams UNLV has faced, 9 have been held below their season rushing averages against the Rebels. Kansas (5.7), Boise State (4.6), and Syracuse (4.2) are the only teams who have been above 4 yards per carry against this UNLV defense all year.

Per Game on Paper, UNLV’s defense ranks inside the top 25 for opponent-adjusted EPA per play and sits 26th in rushing success rate allowed.

UNLV more than held its own in the first meeting. But 2 key penalties at the end of the game loomed large. The Rebels were flagged for an unsportsmanlike penalty that killed their final offensive drive and then were called for defensive holding call to extend a Boise State drive after an incompletion on third down. Boise ran the final 8:07 off the clock and UNLV never got the ball back.

I like UNLV here in a game where all the pressure is on Boise State.

Arizona State -1.5 vs. Iowa State (-112 via DraftKings)

These 2 are very hard to separate on paper. Arizona State is 20th in net adjusted EPA per play while Iowa State sits 28th. (The difference is 0.03 points per play.) Arizona State’s offense might need some time to reorient itself after losing wideout Jordyn Tyson to injury — he has 75 receptions for 1,101 yards and 10 scores this year, no other pass catcher has more than 291 receiving yards — but the Sun Devils have a player in the backfield who is used to being leaned on. Cam Skattebo is an everything man. He’s the third-leading rusher in the Big 12 this year (1,398 yards, 17 scores) and the Sun Devils’ second-leading receiver (468 yards).

In back-to-back losses to Texas Tech and Kansas last month, Iowa State could not control the ground game. Tech tailback Tahj Brooks ran for 122 yards and a score at 4.9 per carry. Kansas tailback Devin Neal ran for 116 yards and 2 scores at 6.4 per carry. Both teams found success running on first down against the Iowa State defense, and I think Skattebo can do the same.

And if Arizona State can control the flow and play with a lead, I think they can get a few off Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht. The Cyclones haven’t been good on third downs of late and Becht has been skating by with near-misses all year. He has 18 turnover-worthy plays but just 8 interceptions. Arizona State’s secondary has 14 picks and 59 passes defended, both top-30 marks nationally.

While Iowa State has been here before (2020 against Oklahoma) and Arizona State hasn’t, I don’t think there’s a mental edge working for the Cyclones. Arizona State was picked to finish last in the Big 12’s preseason poll. That has fueled this team all year.

Oregon -3.5 vs. Penn State (-102 via FanDuel)

Since winning the Big Ten in 2016, James Franklin is 2-14 straight up and 7-9 against the spread as an underdog. The Ducks are the more complete team. I expect Dan Lanning to have Oregon’s defensive front of Jordan Burch, Derrick Harmon, and Matayo Uiagalelei motivated after seeing the Big Ten’s all-conference picks. Penn State’s receivers don’t jump off the page and Oregon has the team speed to come up with a functional plan for do-everything tight end Tyler Warren. And Penn State’s defense has yet to see an offense as balanced as the one Oregon will present. The Ducks’ offense is an uber-efficient machine. All year, Lanning has been able to keep his team focused on the job directly in front of them. Throughout his career, Lanning has performed well as a favorite. He’s 23-12 ATS as a favorite and 33-2 SU. Lanning appears to be one of the best motivators in the game right now. Franklin has a proven reputation as a coach who can’t win the big one. I’m not overthinking this.