I’m backing 3 dogs this week and leaning hard on recent trends after 2 eventful weeks to open the 2024 season.  If you’re not already, get signed up with one of Tradition’s top recommended OH sports betting apps to take advantage of several different starting bonuses and matches.

Let’s get right to it. Here are my best bets for Week 3.

FIU +5.5 at Florida Atlantic (-110 via ESPN Bet)

The Panthers were a field goal underdog against Central Michigan in Week 2 and won 52-16. Florida Atlantic has 17 combined points in its first 2 games. Here’s a case of teams trending in opposite directions. I highlighted this game earlier in the week and I still feel good about it even though the line has dipped a bit at sportsbooks. The FIU secondary currently has the top coverage grade in the country through 2 weeks (per PFF) and has already created 5 interceptions on the season. If the Panthers can run on the Owls and dictate the terms — fair chance, FAU is giving up 6.2 yards per run — FAU will be throwing into the teeth of the defense. A play on the moneyline here is also a consideration.

Iowa -22 vs. Troy (-110 via DraftKings)

Per game on paper, Troy is 115th nationally in net success rate through 2 weeks. The Trojans lost 28-26 at home to Nevada in Week 1 and then lost 38-17 to Memphis last week. Memphis tailback Mario Anderson ran for 125 yards and 2 scores to lead the Tigers. On the ground, Memphis ranked in the 85th percentile for EPA per rushing attempt; Troy stuffed nothing. Now they head to Kinnick Stadium to face a team that just lost a coin flip game to a rival. Kaleb Johnson ran for 187 yards on the Cyclones and should be licking his chops over the prospect of facing the 132nd-ranked run defense in a bounceback spot.

Vanderbilt -10.5 at Georgia State (-108 via DraftKings)

Vandy has juice to open the 2024 season. The win over Virginia Tech in Week 1 was legit, with a 76% postgame win expectancy, per Bill Connelly’s SP+. The 55-0 win over Alcorn was the first shutout for the program since 2019 and the largest margin of victory in a game since 2012. Virginia Tech might not be what we thought and Alcorn is Alcorn, but given where Vandy’s program has been of late, good vibes are good vibes. The ‘Dores have scored points on 13 of their 20 offensive possessions so far, created 3 takeaways, and forced teams into an 8-for-24 start on third down. Per game on paper, Vandy ranks 11th nationally in net success rate. I’m inspired by the start. Georgia State was easily handled by Georgia Tech in its opener and hasn’t been good against the run. I’ll take a ticket to the Pavia show for at least another week.

North Texas +9.5 at Texas Tech (-102 via FanDuel)

The Red Raiders needed overtime to defeat Abilene Christian in their opener at home. In Week 2, tailback Tahj Brooks was unavailable and Tech gave up 197 rushing yards to Wazzu’s quarterback in a 37-16 loss. The Red Raiders have given up 506 yards through the air in one game and 306 yards on the ground in the other. Turnovers have become a concern. Penalties have been a concern. Coach Joey McGuire has gone on 8 fourth-down attempts already, converting just 2 of them. Brooks is questionable to play in Week 3, as is Tech’s starting left tackle, starting nose tackle, starting outside linebacker, starting safety, and both starting cornerbacks. The Red Raiders also lost their top left guard to a season-ending injury in the Wazzu loss. The North Texas offense is at 6.9 yards per play, slightly better than last year’s mark and this game represents a homecoming for coach Eric Morris, who spent 5 seasons on the Tech staff.

Purdue +10 vs. Notre Dame (-110 via BetMGM)

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard was sacked twice and picked off twice in the loss to NIU in Week 2, and now his status is up in the air for Week 3 after reportedly having an MRI over the weekend for an issue with his non-throwing shoulder. Coach Marcus Freeman said this week the team isn’t considering benching Leonard — a remarkable storyline to come out of the opening 2 weeks of the season. I was never the biggest believer in this fit and now the Irish go on the road to face a Purdue team that looked pretty stingy against the pass in its Week 1 game. The Boilermakers are 13-7-1 against the spread since 2014 with a rest advantage. They’ve had a week to prepare for Notre Dame and have more usable tape of the Irish than the Irish have of them. And per VSiN’s AJ Makinen, in the last decade-plus, teams that lose as a 19.5-point favorite or greater are covering the spread just 35% of the time the following week.